Have been doing some musing today into exactly where this team is heading, and I actually think the blueprint that Jamie trying to work towards is the 2016 team - which in my opinion is probably the best in Highlanders modern history.
One of the biggest strengths of that side was the loose forwards, and at the moment I feel this is one of the weak points for our side.
HIGHLANDERS LOOSE FORWARD BALL CARRYING STATISTICS
Stats from Rugby Pass
TK HOWDEN: 60 Carries (8.8 per 80), 108 Metres (1.8m per carry) 1 Line Break, & 2 Defenders Beaten.
OLI HAIG: 28 Carries (5.74 per 80), 30 Metres (1.07m per carry) 1 Line Break, & 1 Defenders Beaten.
SEAN WITHY: 34 Carries (6.15 per 80), 70 Metres (2.05m per carry) 0 Line Breaks, & 0 Defenders Beaten.
VEVENI LASAQA: 30 Carries (8.69 per 80), 149 Metres (4.97m per carry) 3 Line Breaks, & 10 Defenders Beaten.
LUCAS CASEY: 31 Carries (8.55 per 80), 87 Metres (2.81m per carry) 0 Line Breaks, & 4 Defenders Beaten.
HUGH RENTON: 15 Carries (8.95 per 80), 21 Metres (1.4m per carry) 0 Line Breaks, & 2 Defenders Beaten.
WILL STODART: 13 Carries (8.67 per 80), 6 Metres (0.46m per carry) 0 Line Breaks, & 2 Defenders Beaten.
NIKORA BROUGHTON: 13 Carries (11.18 per 80), 54 Metres (4.15m per carry) 0 Line Breaks, & 1 Defenders Beaten.
There are a few caveats here to some of this. Stodart's minutes have all been off the bench, and have all been at lock, so can be largely ignored for considering how he might go in the loose forwards. Haig's minutes have also been all at lock. Lasaqa and Broughton's minutes are largely against the Force and Moana, so are probably a tough higher than they would otherwise be - but you can see trends here.
Defensive stats are important too, but effectively we are looking for a ball-playing seven who is a breakdown threat, a ball-running six who is a lineout target, and a massive eight, who is judged more on defensive numbers.
OPENSIDE FLANKERS:
We are choosing here between Withy, Lasaqa and Casey. Withy's numbers this season run pretty much alongside his career stats to date for the Highlanders. He beats a defender about every 9.5 carries, doesn't put up line breaks, and doesn't make many metres (overall less important).
So how does he do at the breakdown? Across 2024 and 2025, he was getting a turnover about once every 110 minutes. This season he has one every 220 minutes. So what is his strength? He is a volume tackler, but his percentage is around 85%, (down at 80% this season), which is not overly high if that is what you excel at.
So how about the other two?
Lasaqa's attacking statline is running a little high, but even last season he had double the metres per carry, beat more defenders, made linebreaks etc. Part of that is because when on the field with Withy he gets to play wide, but it is fairly undeniable that he is more effective in that department. His turnover numbers were about one in 120 minutes last year, but this year he is getting one every 30 minutes. That obviously is not sustainable, but it is a clear improvement. In the tackle, he loves a big hit, but he is down at 78% tackle success this year, which remains a concern.
So Lucas Casey. Ultimately his statline presents fairly good, particularly considering he has played almost solely at eight. This means he is playing tight to the ruck rather than wider, hence his lower carries per metre. His NPC stats in that department are well documented. Defensively, he is at 75%, and he has 2 turnovers across 290 minutes. For Otago he was about one every 125 minutes, so this is an area of improvement for him. Has he underwhelmed a bit for the Highlanders? I think on balance he probably has, but this for mine is because he has been used at eight. His best attribute is running in the wide channels, because he has some superb skills.
Conclusion: There is very little upside to Withy. On current numbers, Lasaqa possibly deserves the jersey, but I'd be very intrigued to see how Casey can go at 7.
BLINDSIDE FLANKER:
We are looking for a ball carrier who is a lineout target. TK Howden has pretty much solely played blindside barring a few minutes at lock. Outside of Withy, I don't believe we have seen anyone else at blindside. He has owned the jersey, but his numbers are fairly middling compared to the rest of the competition both at Super and NPC level. He has a volume carrier, but he isn't overly effective. He is however a good lineout target.
What about his defence? His 82% last season, and 85% tackle completion this season is very good. In theory, we could cover this with an elite ball-carrying number eight, but this is a rare commodity in New Zealand. Shannon Frizell is coming back to take this shirt next season, and should do all the defensive work + lineout work, whilst also being a strong carrier. I don't know where that leaves Howden, but what I do know is he is off contract... go figure.
As for the present, the other two options would be Haig and Stodart. Haig's numbers are tough to gauge as he has played at lock, but he is tackling at 89% this season. His ball-carrying numbers have never been that impressive outside of his breakthrough NPC campaign, which had him at nearly 5m per carry. Last season for the Highlanders he was at just under 3m per carry (small sample size), so it is definitely food for thought. If he stays with the Highlanders, he is probably destined to be used in the ball-playing lock role, but longer term, if he stays, there was a reason why he shot into the NZ XV in 2024. Something to keep in mind.
As for Stodart, his NPC statline presents more in the mould of a number eight, so should be considered there.
Conclusion: Long-term (at least for 2027) this is Frizell's shirt. Short-term, if we run Dunshea, Lavanini and NAS, I would love to see Haig at least given a chance here. Howden is nothing special, and has not really added anything extra to his game.
NUMBER EIGHT:
Whilst strong ball-carrying is important here too, we are really after a bulk defender. Renton is a volume carrier and generally has been a strong carrier, but the big issue, which the stats don't really show is he dies in contact. I have been unable to source his offload numbers, but I suspect these are low. Defensively, he is solid, and has been low 80s consistently even through his injuries, and he is a high volume tackler, which is important. However the other important thing to consider with Renton, is how he can respond to these injuries. He has struggled for fitness since the 2023 Super season, and is off-contract. Massive kudos to him for coming back, but for all parties, I think it would be best to move on at the end of this season.
If we ignore Casey, which I feel we should, then Broughton is the other eight they have used over the past few seasons. Defensively, he has generally tackled up closer to 90, but he is a low volume tackler, which possibly explains the higher percentage. He also is low for dominant tackles. Finally, despite some handy skills, he doesn't really past the eye test.
The question is Stodart. Over the past two NPC campaigns, he has shown himself to be a capable volume carrier in a fairly similar mould to Renton. Defensively there are some questions, given he was at 87% in 2024, and 76% last year, but in a low sample size, he has been above 90% in the last two Super campaigns. I think he can do the defensive job.
Conclusion: Renton is the safe option, but isn't getting any better. Broughton isn't a strong enough defender. Stodart is untested - but if he isn't the answer, then we need to go to the market to find an answer. If we are saying that next year is the year, we might as well find out how good he is.
@mikey2002
BLINDSIDE FLANKERS
Defensively, we are looking for a lineout option (Howden and Haig both are) and an enforcer who doubles as a strong cleaner given we use our blindside tight to the ruck. Overall tackle numbers don’t need to be that high, but how hard do they hit in the tackle. This is tough to measure on publicly available date but:
TK HOWDEN - 6 line out steals last season - 0 this season, 5 Dominant Tackles (22.4 tackles per dominant tackle & 0.71 per 80 minutes), 8 Penalties Conceded (1.14 per 80 minutes), 85% tackle completion, Ruck Arrival Effectiveness: (12.8% SR 2025, 17% SR 2026, 15% NPC 2025)
OLI HAIG - 2 line out steals this season, 4 Dominant Tackles (22.2 tackles per dominant tackle & 0.82 per 80 minutes), 5 Penalties Conceded (1.02 per 80 minutes), 89% tackle completion, Ruck Arrival Effectiveness: (7.7% SR 2024, 23% NPC 2025, 0% SR 2026)
For context on ruck arrival effectiveness, a selection of other blindsides this season: Shields 21.8%, Finau 16.7%, Parker 25%… over in Japan Frizell is at 36%.
I don’t necessarily think ruck arrival effectiveness as a stat can be used as gospel, but it definitely paints a picture that neither Howden or Haig are great cleaners. Haig showed during the NPC that he could be, and I think possibly his 0% this season more pertains to the fact he isn’t really being used as a cleaner.
As a wider point, this possibly in part explains our lack of clean ruck ball - seemingly Howden isn’t doing a particularly good job in this department. Our other player who has generally been close to the ruck has been Lucas Casey who is cleaning well at 29% (small sample size), which may explain why they have liked him at eight.
As for the tackle stats, you can’t really split them. All in all there is not a lot between them. I favour that Haig’s stats probably run low as he is playing at lock. I look at TK Howden, and I am not sure how many more levels he has to go, and I feel he has showed that this season. If Haig does indeed walk off to the UK, I suspect he could be the one which got away. It might have been premature, but in his breakthrough year, he was bolted straight into the NZ XV.
At current, Shannon Frizell is an upgrade on both, and will take the shirt next year. As an aside, if both Haig and Howden do leave, we will obviously need another blindside flanker. This is where I was planning on delving into Tai Cribb’s stats, however he simply profiles as a woeful lock… not the man we need. Senita Lauaki does however profile much better, do note, the NPC stats for certain things are sometimes a little inaccurate.
SENITA LAUAKI (NPC 24/25) - Does not seem to be a lineout option, 10 Dominant Tackles (19.6 tackles per dominant tackle & 0.91 per 80 minutes), 1 Penalties Conceded (0.09 per 80 minutes), 87% tackle completion, Ruck Arrival Effectiveness: 18%
Whilst I am not focusing on the attacking stats here, he definitely profiles well there too. Expect him to join the full squad next year.
OPENSIDE FLANKER
Defensively, we are mainly focused on turnovers and high volume tackling. Our openside flanker plays very wide and hunts turnovers, so their ability to clean rucks is almost irrelevant. Before I delve into this, I am expecting Withy to perform better here, which makes it odd we use him out wide when it really is not a strength of his.
SEAN WITHY - 82 Tackles Made (80% Completion, 14.85 per 80), 2 Turnovers Won (0.36 per 80), 4 Penalties Conceded (0.72 per 80)
VEVENI LASAQA - 47 Tackles Made (78% Completion, 13.62 per 80), 9 Turnovers Won (2.61 per 80), 3 Penalties Conceded (1.15 per 80)
LUCAS CASEY - 41 Tackles Made (75% Completion, 11.3 per 80), 2 Turnovers Won (0.55 per 80), 3 Penalties Conceded (0.82 per 80)
As stated yesterday, these are quite small sample sizes, and there is slight variations in how we use these guys. For example, when Lasaqa is on the field, given the presence of Tavatavanawai and Taylor, neither Casey or Withy are even attempting many turnovers, so there numbers are always going to be a bit lower. That said, both run fairly close to their career averages (slightly below). Lasaqa until now has not been a noted turner over of the ball, but this is clearly a marked improvement in his game. He has a massive edge, and particularly in post Jim world, has a massive advantage over the other two. Given he goes for turnovers, his penalty count is always going to be slightly higher.
Withy is clearly the highest volume tackler, that is undeniable, even if Casey was averaging over 15 per game in the NPC, with a completion of 85%. Part of this will be to do with the fact he hasn’t completed a game yet, and as a rule the Highlanders have done a lot of defending in the last 20 minutes of games. Whilst not valued, Lasaqa loves a dominant tackle, but his volume tackling could do with some improvement. It should also be kept in mind, that over half his minutes this season have come against the Force and Moana.
Statistically, it is hard to make an argument for Sean Withy right now. The question is whether is he out of form, or did he look a bit better than he was because he was in a poor side? Withy on paper, should be in the mould of Sam Cane or Dalton Papalii. A high volume, hard hitting tackler, ruck cleaner, with the occasional turnover, who runs good support lines. When he came through, his attacking stats actually looked quite good, but a lot of that was him playing closer to the ruck. Two big moments that stick out for me this season with Withy, was his knock-on from the cross-kick against the Chiefs (leading to a try), and a knock-on on a counter attack on the edge of our 22 against the Hurricanes (believe they scored off the scrum). I honestly think he is being misprofiled. His game does not suit those wide channels. When he has spent the majority of the season playing with Casey and Howden, to send Withy to play wide doesn’t make any sense. His role has been changed, and it ultimately does not suit him, and his game is limited in that he does not have great ball skills.
As for the other two, they are both going well. Lasaqa obviously excels in turning the ball over, and on form deserves the shirt - longer term, I think Lucas Casey’s potential is huge, and he also holds the advantage of being slightly bigger.
Given Withy is unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon, I don’t exactly know what his future holds. I actually think he would be a great replacement for Dalton Papalii at the Blues, and that would be a reasonable move for all parties.
NUMBER EIGHT
The way we use our number eight, we are probably looking for a volume tackler, who hits hard, and can clean a ruck, but given we use our eight as a primary ball carrier (and this will continue in a world where Holland and Tengblad are your long-term locks), this is less important. As mentioned yesterday, Lucas Casey profiles perfectly for the way we use an openside flanker - play him there.
The statistics here all come with wide caveats. For Renton, his sample size from two games this season is both not big enough, and also may not be representative of the future given he is coming back from a lengthy injury, equally, his prior stats my not be representative of the future given his injury. To give the best picture of what he could potentially be, I will be using his stats from the 2023 Super Rugby season, where he played 741 minutes. He did manage a consistent run in the 2024 NPC season, but outside of that, he has spent the best part of 2 years on the sideline. Nikora Broughton has hardly been used the past couple of years (for reasonable reason), and we already know his NPC numbers don’t translate to Super particularly well. His numbers are from the 2024 Super Rugby season. Will Stodart’s has just 120 minutes this season which have all been at lock, so I will be using his 2025 NPC statistics.
HUGH RENTON - 120 Tackles Made (82% Completion, 12.96 per 80), 7 Dominant Tackles (17.14 tackles per dominant tackle & 0.76 per 80 minutes), Ruck Arrival Effectiveness: 19%
NIKORA BROUGHTON - 91 Tackles Made (79% Completion, 12.91 per 80), 6 Dominant Tackles (15.17 tackles per dominant tackle & 0.85 per 80 minutes), Ruck Arrival Effectiveness: 5%
WILL STODART - 134 Tackles Made (76% Completion, 12.1 per 80), 4 Dominant Tackles (33.5 tackles per dominant tackle & 0.36 per 80 minutes), Ruck Arrival Effectiveness: 11%
Given the different dates and competitions it is hard to put great weight on these, but in theory at his best, Renton is the best defender of these three as of now. Stodart’s tackling numbers interestingly were far higher in the 2024 NPC (87% Tackle success, 8 Dominant Tackles = 16.38 tackles per dominant tackle), and he has been consistently above 90% for the Highlanders. He has also tackled at high volumes in small sample sizes. Part of this will be because he has played a lot of lock for the Highlanders, so generally he isn’t defending a great deal of space. His cleaning could do with some work, but again that is not necessarily of the utmost value.
Though it is not overly relevant, Broughton’s career ruck arrival is consistently in the single digits, which probably speaks to his lack of size - that doesn’t really lend itself to a primary ball carrier. I imagine he will head off at the end of the season, and I reckon he’d go great in Japan.
For the here and now, Stodart really remains the unknown. He definitely has the frame, and he has shown potential in the NPC - I really think we should be letting him loose, particularly as we seem to be somewhat turning our attentions to next year. It is hard to say with any real confidence, but it feels unlikely Renton will ever recapture his form, given he has struggled with injuries throughout his career. I would not be looking to renew his contract.
@jimmyb suggested we could maybe look at Howden as an eight, and given he has made the most tackles in the whole competition this season, there would definitely be some merit in that. He certainly would need to add some bulk though.
Overall, if Frizell hits the ground running, and Casey/Lasaqa play to their potential, then Renton could certainly do a job if he recaptures his form of old, but I suspect if given the time in the saddle, Stodart could easily do that job, and with confidence, might even be an improvement in the ball-carrying department. Howden too shapes as an option.
As for contracting next season, we know Casey, Frizell and Tengblad are taking up contracts. Unless we drop a back, which is possible (though unlikely), you need to find three contracts out of Howden, Haig, Broughton, Renton, Dunshea, Lavanini and Cribb. Assuming Broughton goes, there’s Casey sorted, and assuming Lavanini goes there is Tengblad sorted. Renton’s survival chances may therefore hinge on who else they have lined up, and whether Howden and Haig jump ship.
CONCLUSION
For the here and now, realistically it is going to be Howden at blindside. Until big Nelson turns up, we only have two locks, so at the very least Haig would be ending games there. I think Lasaqa takes the openside jersey, as he deserves the chance + has looked better when starting games for whatever reason. They will stick with Renton at eight, but I’d like to see Stodart given a chance. Casey fills the bench role alongside one of the locks.