With the new All Blacks squad selected, Dave Rennie now needs to commit to a particular style of play. With 11 Hurricanes and 11 Chiefs picked, Rennie has already shown some of his colours but can still go in two distinct directions. Born in Upper Hutt and having coached both Wellington and Manawatu, the former Cook Islands XV centre has strong roots in Hurricane country. And yet, Rennie is still first and foremost associated with Chiefs mana, the resilient and gritty Messam-led teams who conquered Super Rugby in 2012 and ’13.
If Rennie was still undecided, Saturday’s final should have put any doubts away. The Chiefs’ game plan of breakdown pressure and counter-attack was blown apart by the Hurricanes’ offloading extravaganza, with the Chiefs’ small breakdown victory (4 BD turnovers to 2) inconsequential compared to the offloading contest (22 Hurricanes offloads to just 3 from the Chiefs). The Chiefs simply couldn’t get a hold of their opponents.
The work of the Canes tight 5 was both crucial and symbolic in this regard. While both starting groups carried around the same number of times, their respective impacts differed greatly.
The tight 5 from the Hurricanes and the Chiefs: similar carrying numbers for very different results
As it so often is, the foundation of attacking impetus consists of variety: the Hurricanes’ tight five are a double threat (or even a triple threat, in Isaia Walker-Leawere’s case) which keeps the defence guessing where the point of attack will end up going. They can offload out of the tackle, give short passes at the line or bust through tackles themselves, making the Canes’ forwards a difficult proposition to contain.
Their offloading game also made them difficult to stop once the Canes got in behind the Chiefs’ defensive line. A player like Tupaea, who has been so effective at getting momentum-shifting turnovers, cut a frustrated figure in the final, as he was unable to time his breakdown work properly due to the shiftiness of the Canes’ ball. As a result, he started jumping out of the defensive line, only further exacerbating the Chiefs’ weaknesses and reinforcing the Canes’ strengths.
Tupaea wants to make a defensive impact so rushes out to tackle Love man-and-ball. He’s too slow, however, opening up the door for Aumua, who neatly uses the pass fake before the carry
A few weeks earlier, another final was being played out in Tokyo between Frans Ludeke’s Kubota Spears and Rennie’s Kobe Steelers. In trying to find out Rennie’s way forward, the match proved to be largely inconclusive. While the tight five mimicked and even increased on the Hurricanes’ distribution numbers, the attacking contribution was nearly non-existent, just the one tackle bust out of 63 attacking involvements.
Lots of ball movement to little effect: watching the game, both the option-taking as well as the execution of the Steelers’ tight five was off
What ultimately won the Steelers the game wasn’t a free-flowing attack but good old-fashioned Rennie-gifted mana: defensive grit (90% tackle completion) and breakdown niggle, the Steelers winning the turnover battle 11 to 5.
Seeing how his side was able to stifle the Kubota attack, Rennie might be inclined to start out his All Blacks tenure by relying on the familiar Chiefs principles of breakdown threat and counter-attack. Doing so, however, would be a big mistake. Around 15 hours before the SRP final, another game was played, this time in the small town of Vannes, on the north western coast of France. A French XV played against an England A selection, both teams being the first choice teams in all but name, excluding the players playing in the Premiership and Top 14 finals.
What occurred was almost a preview of what would happen in Wellington later that day: one side looking to attack the breakdown and slow down the opposition attack (England A), while the other side used ball movement and offloading ability to evade this pilfering threat (France XV).
From a poor kick, the French use their short passing and offloading game to overwhelm the English defence. Once they are inside the 22, they are, much like the Hurricanes, excellent decision makers on attack, going from short to long passes to stretch and break the defence
France played in a style very similar to that of the Canes: they built just 97 rucks, preferring to keep the ball alive through dominant carries and offloads. Once they’ve built momentum, they rely on their 9, Le Garrec, to dictate the play, speeding up the ball movement through short passes and snipes around the ruck.
Hurricanes and France XV: evasive, athletic and ruthless inside the 22
Much like the Hurricanes, the French XV use their tight 5 forwards to gain momentum through the middle. But while the Canes front row features heavily in their gain line plan, for the French they have transformed their locks into gain line monsters. Galthié has done this by turning to two locks who can both carry and offload: Australian-born Tom Staniforth and lock-turned-No. 8-turned-back-to-lock Mickaël Guillard.
Guillard was an impressive performer at No. 8 last July Test series in New Zealand but has since been put back into the second row. Galthié wants his second rowers to dominate the collisions in the middle while still being able to shift the ball when possible.
The locks interplay, breaking the gain line, with Guillard offloading from the floor. From a quick shift by the replacement tighthead, Montagne, Hastoy is able to make a half break
In order to make this work and not sacrifice the lineout, the French coach has gone for a very mobile and tall back row, with players available for selection like Esteban Capilla (1m97), Temo Matiu (1m91), Oscar Jegou (1m90) and Killian Tixeront (1m98). All of these players excel in the lineout (both attacking and defensive) while also being excellent support players.
Once the defensive middle has been pierced, the ball can be shifted to the back line, with the flankers acting as extra support runners and distributors out wide
Much like the Hurricanes, the French defence is less concerned with breakdown pressure than with physical dominance, preferring instead to read and smother the opposition attack rather than go looking for pilfers. The French lack breakdown experts amongst their backrowers, with none even cracking double digits for turnovers, despite most playing over a 1000 Top 14 minutes.
Where they do excel, however, is causing turnovers through the tackle as well as pilfer ball during lineout time, with Capilla, Tixeront and Jegou combining for over 30 lineout steals during the Top 14 season. Despite this lack of breakdown threat, the French will still find ways to create counter-attacking opportunities.
They are built to score and, since their game against England A, have added Jalibert to their squad. After a failed incursion last year, it is clear that Galthié has unfinished business in New Zealand. They will present a stern first Test for Dave Rennie and his squad.
Tl;dr
When Rennie will take charge of his first All Blacks Test in a little over a week’s time, he will come up against a side that are eerily similar to this season’s Hurricanes. Dominant, offloading forwards, combined with excellent decision-makers at 9 and 10, this French side is a team built to rack up high scores.
The biggest mistake Rennie could make, then, is to fall back on his trusted Chiefs’ principles of defensive volume and breakdown pressure. The former Chiefs coach will already have seen at the Cake Tin on Saturday what happens when you go hunting for a breakdown that doesn’t exist.
His best option, in my view, is to fight fire with fire and give us a match-up between the Northern and the Southern Hurricanes. From the northern Atlantic to the southern Pacific, hurricane season is coming to a climax. It should make for some spectacle.