@brodean said in Ireland v All Blacks - Chicago2:

@Mauss said in Ireland v All Blacks - Chicago2:

@Tim said in Ireland v All Blacks - Chicago2:

Rewatched the 1st half. We really get very little out of our loose forwards. Despite being a man up for 20 mins, they were hardly hitting rucks. Let alone making aggressive tackles. It looks like Tupaea, Faingaʻanuku, and even Clarke had better breakdown technique. Savea is absolutely not a 7.

The Savea-at-openside discussion is interesting. To be honest, I don’t think it makes a whole lot of difference what number Savea is wearing on his back, he pretty much plays his game whether he’s wearing 7 or 8 (or 6 or 12...). If you’d look at the table here, who’d you reckon the openside would be and who’d be the 8?

Guess the player: carries, post-contact metres, tackles completed, attacking rucks attended, defensive rucks attended and turnovers won

Player B has all the hallmarks of your classic number 8: double figures in carries and tackles, significant post-contact metres and multiple defenders beaten. Player A, on the other hand, fits more the profile of an openside: more rucks attended than carries, with less impact made per carry.

In case you’re still wondering: these are the numbers of Savea and Lakai against the Irish in Chicago, with Savea being player B and Lakai being player A. So while Savea is ‘technically’ wearing the openside-jersey, he is very much playing like a 7/8-hybrid right now (his 17 rucks attended and 2 pilfers being a solid contribution at the breakdown, as well).

And let me get ahead of critiques of Lakai’s “low numbers”: Lakai was effectively acting as the defensive ‘key’ throughout the game, connecting the ruck defence with the defensive line as third defender out from the ruck, shutting down opposition backline moves (his charge down of Gibson-Park is a good example of this, as defensive work that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet). As a result, he was continuously all over the pitch, making reads and shutting down potential gaps in the line. It’s typically one of the roles given to a mobile openside.

So why the numbers?
So why not just put Lakai in the openside-jersey and Savea in the number 8? This is just my own speculation but if I were to hazard a guess, it’s an attempt at turning both Savea and Lakai into more complete players. The ABs are trying to implement a very fluid structure, where everyone can fill into another’s role, whether it’s as a cleaner, as a carrier or as a playmaker (the Savea-try, with de Groot and Lord in the attacking line being a good example of this).

Savea, if put at 8, does have a tendency to abandon some of his other responsibilities. By putting him at openside, you could argue that he’s forced to play closer to the breakdown, balancing out his natural tendency to drift to the edge.

Funnily enough, Lakai has the opposite tendency: when playing at openside, the Hurricanes loose forward can become too focused on his support role, foregoing his own carrying ability. He's often been rather anonymous when playing at 7 for the Hurricanes, unable to complement his openside-role with his excellent carrying ability. By putting him at 8, he’s being forced to balance the two (Sidenote: Papali’i has a similar issue, where he can find it difficult to involve himself beyond the team's structures; his low contribution of 3 carries for the AB XV against the Barbarians would be another example of this).

Those are just my own observations and speculations on why Savea and Lakai are wearing their current jersey numbers, I could be totally off. But it (kind of) makes sense to me. Either way, in reality, Savea is certainly fulfilling the role of a number 8.

And finally, the loose forwards as a whole
I’ll agree that the AB loose forward-mix is a work in progress but I don’t agree with this idea that they’re consistently being outplayed. Against Ireland, the AB loose forward group thoroughly outplayed their counterparts on attack, carrying more, making more metres, beating more defenders, and winning the turnover battle.

Irish and AB loose forward involvements: carries, post-contact metres, defenders beaten, offloads, turnovers won/lost, tackles completed/missed, and dominant tackling

It is only on the defensive side that the Irish loose forwards were more involved, putting in double the tackles while only missing two. But that is also the result of the Irish inability to win the possession-battle, especially in the 2nd half. They were unable to force the ABs into turnovers, allowing the latter to build rucks and pressure in their own half.

This ties in with another often-heard claim about the AB loose forwards losing the breakdown battle. Throughout the Rugby Championship and now this Test against Ireland, the ABs have typically come out on top when it comes to turnovers won (+1.3 on average), lost (-3.3 on average) and rucks lost (-0.6).

Possession and breakdown stats: turnovers won, turnovers lost, rucks won, and rucks lost

That means that the ABs win the ball more often, lose it less than their opponents and lose less rucks than their opponents on average.

By far the biggest stumbling block throughout the Rugby Championship is that the ABs have not built enough rucks to accumulate pressure on their opponents. They’ve averaged around 10 rucks less formed than their opponents, which has given them insufficient opportunities to score. That means that they’ve kicked away too much possession that they haven’t been able to regather. This doesn't mean that the ABs have to kick less; it simply means that they have to kick better.

The balance was better against the Irish, with 23 more rucks formed than their opponent. The ball-carrying and -retention from the bench is a huge factor in this regard as well, with Sititi (8 carries, 45 post-contact metres), Taukei’aho (3 carries, 14 post-contact metres) and McKenzie (8 passes, no kicks) providing lots of impetus in this regard. It’s a template that Robertson will want to expand on during the tour. But that means keeping the scores close for the first 60 minutes, before overwhelming your opponent in the final quarter through set piece- and carrying-dominance.

The loose forward-duo of Savea and Lakai - with their breakdown disruption (8 defensive rucks attended) and defensive mobility (18 tackles with zero misses) - seem set to continue in this regard.

Lakai and Parker combined to complete 12 tackles. Newell made 11. Taylor made 15. Our loose forwards failed to show up defensively in that record Bok loss.

This is a weak Irish side that got a red card. Theres not much to read into this game.

We weren't winning the ruck speed in the RC until the games against a spent Wallabies side.

Weak Irish and spent Wallabies teams.

Out of interest, have we had a good win this year?

Richie8-7

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