Japan looks for a way out of Tokyo Olympics because of Covid
Richard Lloyd Parry, Tokyo
The Japanese government has privately concluded that the Tokyo Olympics will have to be cancelled because of the coronavirus, and the focus is now on securing the Games for the city in the next available year, 2032.
According to a senior member of the ruling coalition, there is agreement that the Games, already postponed a year, are doomed. The aim now is to find a face-saving way of announcing the cancellation that leaves open the possibility of Tokyo playing host at a later date. “No one wants to be the first to say so but the consensus is that it’s too difficult,” the source said. “Personally, I don’t think it’s going to happen.”
Publicly, both the International Olympic Committee and the Japanese government insist that the Games can go ahead. “We will have full anti-infection measures in place and proceed with preparation and with a determination to achieve the Games that can deliver hope and courage throughout the world,” Yoshihide Suga, the prime minister, told parliament this week.
But the source said that the global winter wave of coronavirus has tipped the balance, having forced a state of emergency on Japan’s biggest cities, including Tokyo.
Far from being a celebration of athleticism and international harmony, the Olympics have the potential to be a massive super-spreader event. Opinion polls show that 80 per cent of Japanese people are against the Games going ahead in July and August.
The Australian Open tennis tournament, due to begin on February 8, is beset by problems relating to coronavirus. More than 1,200 people have flown to Melbourne for the event, with several cases detected, and there has been a row with officials after some players were confined to their hotel rooms.
The cancellation of the Olympics would be a financial disaster for Japan, which has spent at least $25 billion on preparations — three quarters of which was public money. The aim now is to maintain the façade of battling determinedly to go ahead in the hope that when they are inevitably cancelled the 2032 Games will be given to Tokyo out of sympathy.
Paris is due to host the Games in 2024 and Los Angeles has been chosen as the venue for 2028. A decision on which city will stage the Olympics in 2032 is expected to be taken by 2025.
“Suga is not emotionally invested in the Games,” the senior source says. “But they want to show that they are ready to go, so that they will get another chance in 11 years. In these circumstances, no one could really object to that.”
The Olympics were called off in 1916, 1940 and 1944 because of world wars; this would be the first cancellation in peacetime. The challenge is to find a way of cancelling while still saving face for the Japanese government and IOC. Last year the decision to postpone the Games for a year was made after Canada and Australia announced that they would not send athletes. “If someone like President Biden was to say that US athletes cannot go, then we could say, ‘Well, now it is impossible’,” the senior source said.
The latest idea being pushed by the IOC is a televised Olympics with athletes but no spectators. This would suit the committee, which makes most of its income from broadcast rights, but not the Japanese authorities, which would make their money from ticket sales. Such an option has been ruled out by Yoshiro Mori, a former prime minister who is head of the Tokyo organising committee. Mr Mori, 83, a power broker in Mr Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party, has lung cancer. To some in the party, cancellation would rob an ailing man of his final dream.