Aussie Pro Rugby

@MiketheSnow said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@barbarian said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

Been thinking about the general positioning and talk of rugby in Australia.

For all the talk of rugby dying, or being 'back', I actually think we've found our level over the last 5-10 years and it's where we will stay.

We're a second tier rugby nation, on and off the field. There's enough support to sustain a viable Super competition, 6-8 Wallabies games a year and the odd Lions tour or World Cup. We will field competitive rugby sides that may have the odd good spell but will never be dominant.

Within the sporting landscape here, our place is to sit below AFL, NRL and cricket but above basketball, soccer and netball.

It's not super interesting to discuss, but I think that's how it is. And I'm largely OK with it, but it does mean accepting that a World Cup win in my lifetime may be a bit of a long shot.

A realistic if slightly pessimistic appraisal

How old are you?

I am 37. Maybe slightly pessimistic. But I'd peg it at maybe 20% chance? We weren't that far away in 2015, if you get a good draw and the bounce of the ball you never know.

On the discussion about selection of OS based players, you'll be hard pressed to find someone who thinks Skelton shouldn't be in the Wallabies every available match and then some.

But what should be equally obvious to my mind is he wouldn't have become the player he is today without having made the move.

And to cement my next point I look at how well Jordie has come back.

So it seems to me from a narrow pool of evidence that the quality of coaching and squad competition in the Top14 etc. may now be as good - if not better - than it is down here.

@barbarian said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@MiketheSnow said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@barbarian said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

Been thinking about the general positioning and talk of rugby in Australia.

For all the talk of rugby dying, or being 'back', I actually think we've found our level over the last 5-10 years and it's where we will stay.

We're a second tier rugby nation, on and off the field. There's enough support to sustain a viable Super competition, 6-8 Wallabies games a year and the odd Lions tour or World Cup. We will field competitive rugby sides that may have the odd good spell but will never be dominant.

Within the sporting landscape here, our place is to sit below AFL, NRL and cricket but above basketball, soccer and netball.

It's not super interesting to discuss, but I think that's how it is. And I'm largely OK with it, but it does mean accepting that a World Cup win in my lifetime may be a bit of a long shot.

A realistic if slightly pessimistic appraisal

How old are you?

I am 37. Maybe slightly pessimistic. But I'd peg it at maybe 20% chance? We weren't that far away in 2015, if you get a good draw and the bounce of the ball you never know.

I’m 59 this year and still think Wales can do it in my lifetime

@antipodean It's certainly one of the big arguments in favour of letting players go.

But you have to draw the distinction of playing top tier Euro rugby and what happens in Japan. I don't think you could find many who get better by playing at Suntory, or wherever.

Which is why, to me, the Giteau rule is a better approach than an open borders policy.

@antipodean said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

So it seems to me from a narrow pool of evidence that the quality of coaching and squad competition in the Top14 etc. may now be as good - if not better - than it is down here

i think they've gone past us, with a fair bit of our IP helping out.

@mariner4life said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@antipodean said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

So it seems to me from a narrow pool of evidence that the quality of coaching and squad competition in the Top14 etc. may now be as good - if not better - than it is down here

i think they've gone past us, with a fair bit of our IP helping out.

NH took their licks at the 2015 RWC and lifted their comps. So I agree with you - both for domestic comps and Tests

@antipodean said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

On the discussion about selection of OS based players, you'll be hard pressed to find someone who thinks Skelton shouldn't be in the Wallabies every available match and then some.

But what should be equally obvious to my mind is he wouldn't have become the player he is today without having made the move.

And to cement my next point I look at how well Jordie has come back.

So it seems to me from a narrow pool of evidence that the quality of coaching and squad competition in the Top14 etc. may now be as good - if not better - than it is down here.

There is little incentive for us to be better with only 4 pro teams vs dozens - either in European Rugby or in other codes here.

We laugh at people saying "If NRL or AFL didn't exist...", but it has a valid core. So many layers to local rugby league in Sydney that keep the fire burning, and players aware that anyone is ready to take their job at a moment's notice. I imagine it is the same in the AFL.

When you look at some who have become Wallabies, you're left to wonder if they actually just fell into it. And politics plays a far bigger part in selections when you don't have volume.

e.g. Sydney West clubs/reps win a lot of competitions, only to see 2-3 players going into the system at higher levels. Why would they bother when a pay cheque is available in any one of dozens of local RL clubs?

@nzzp said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@mariner4life said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@antipodean said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

So it seems to me from a narrow pool of evidence that the quality of coaching and squad competition in the Top14 etc. may now be as good - if not better - than it is down here

i think they've gone past us, with a fair bit of our IP helping out.

NH took their licks at the 2015 RWC and lifted their comps. So I agree with you - both for domestic comps and Tests

And got one semi finalist in 2023. Admittedly a whole two in 2019.

@barbarian said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

Been thinking about the general positioning and talk of rugby in Australia.

For all the talk of rugby dying, or being 'back', I actually think we've found our level over the last 5-10 years and it's where we will stay.

We're a second tier rugby nation, on and off the field. There's enough support to sustain a viable Super competition, 6-8 Wallabies games a year and the odd Lions tour or World Cup. We will field competitive rugby sides that may have the odd good spell but will never be dominant.

Within the sporting landscape here, our place is to sit below AFL, NRL and cricket but above basketball, soccer and netball.

It's not super interesting to discuss, but I think that's how it is. And I'm largely OK with it, but it does mean accepting that a World Cup win in my lifetime may be a bit of a long shot.

I suspect you're at a point you always were.

Not exactly second tier, but not consistently top tier.

I reckon you're on a long term par with Ireland, Scotland, Wales. Capable of producing a world beating team (and those world beating teams could last for a few years), but subject to fluctuations.

I reckon NZ, SA, England, France are likely to have less downward fluctuations, generally not as deep nor as prolonged, based on the player base we/they have. Although NZ could be in danger of slipping if too many of our base go overseas (which negatively affects us in multiple ways).

I'm surprised at your assessment of being above soccer though.

@booboo said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

Although NZ could be in danger of slipping if too many of our base go overseas (which negatively affects us in multiple ways).

I see the same issues with NZ Schools as happened with some areas of the game over here, namely warehousing players and thus destroying smaller outposts by denying them the opportunity to field sides.

@NTA

I'd take it even a bit further and say that even if only the NRL did not exist, Australia would be a very big heavy weight in the rugby (union) world.
England took decades to recover from the 1895 split, and Australia (rugby union) has probably never really recovered from 1908.
Australia's success throughout the 80's into the 90's came from the rub off from the superior professionalism of rugby league. Something no other rugby country had the benefit of.
The other rugby union programs have now caught up, and the Aussies have lost that edge.

But the RL influence is still there.
I remember Les Kiss as a player. Great little winger. Had a bad knee injury I think, and was never quite the same after that.
And if you'd told me back then that he would coach the Wallabies one day; I'd have said Fuuuuuuck off!

so reports coming out that the Giteau law is getting scrapped and the Wallabies will be selecting from all over the world.

So that's Super Rugby absolutely fucked now. And us with it.

@mariner4life said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

so reports coming out that the Giteau law is getting scrapped and the Wallabies will be selecting from all over the world.

So that's Super Rugby absolutely fucked now. And us with it.

Seen this before, it often ends up like the below. I know in theory Rugby has better international windows, but those boys were flying out leaving monday/tuesday from the UK, playing at the weekend and then flying home straight afterwards. Rugby should have longer windows, but it's going to suck I reckon.

i don't understand how South Africa and now Aus do it when our stupid Rugby Championship runs for like 3 months, well outside "windows"

@booboo said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@barbarian said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

Been thinking about the general positioning and talk of rugby in Australia.

For all the talk of rugby dying, or being 'back', I actually think we've found our level over the last 5-10 years and it's where we will stay.

We're a second tier rugby nation, on and off the field. There's enough support to sustain a viable Super competition, 6-8 Wallabies games a year and the odd Lions tour or World Cup. We will field competitive rugby sides that may have the odd good spell but will never be dominant.

Within the sporting landscape here, our place is to sit below AFL, NRL and cricket but above basketball, soccer and netball.

It's not super interesting to discuss, but I think that's how it is. And I'm largely OK with it, but it does mean accepting that a World Cup win in my lifetime may be a bit of a long shot.

I'm surprised at your assessment of being above soccer though.

Super Rugby is more popular than the A-League. While the Socceroos and Matildas capture the national attention every four years (moreso than Union ever does), it’s pretty barren outside of that.

Rugby has a reliable annual schedule of games against traditional rivals. Soccer is erratic, games at odd intervals against tinpot Central Asian nations.

The soccer guys would be looking at the Lions series with green eyed envy. They’d love something like that. It would fill stadiums the same way. But it’s just not possible.

Which is a long way of saying soccer could be more popular than rugby if things were a certain way. But they won’t ever be like that.

If that's what RA decide, they've killed rugby domestically. Who'd go see their SR team devoid of recognised Wallabies getting trounced?

I think they are just acknowledging the policy that’s been in place the last few years. Basically there’s no limit on overseas players, but you won’t be picked unless you are truly outstanding.

@barbarian yeah, i think there will always be some merit to those playing well localling

@mariner4life said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

i don't understand how South Africa and now Aus do it when our stupid Rugby Championship runs for like 3 months, well outside "windows"

There's a window specially for the TRC, just like there is for the Six Nations.