Aussie Pro Rugby

@barbarian said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@booboo said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@barbarian said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

Been thinking about the general positioning and talk of rugby in Australia.

For all the talk of rugby dying, or being 'back', I actually think we've found our level over the last 5-10 years and it's where we will stay.

We're a second tier rugby nation, on and off the field. There's enough support to sustain a viable Super competition, 6-8 Wallabies games a year and the odd Lions tour or World Cup. We will field competitive rugby sides that may have the odd good spell but will never be dominant.

Within the sporting landscape here, our place is to sit below AFL, NRL and cricket but above basketball, soccer and netball.

It's not super interesting to discuss, but I think that's how it is. And I'm largely OK with it, but it does mean accepting that a World Cup win in my lifetime may be a bit of a long shot.

I'm surprised at your assessment of being above soccer though.

Super Rugby is more popular than the A-League. While the Socceroos and Matildas capture the national attention every four years (moreso than Union ever does), it’s pretty barren outside of that.

Rugby has a reliable annual schedule of games against traditional rivals. Soccer is erratic, games at odd intervals against tinpot Central Asian nations.

The soccer guys would be looking at the Lions series with green eyed envy. They’d love something like that. It would fill stadiums the same way. But it’s just not possible.

Which is a long way of saying soccer could be more popular than rugby if things were a certain way. But they won’t ever be like that.

The gut feel test is that i seem to see/hear more A League news than Super Rugby news.

@nzzp said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

This is always an interesting point. Ironic that being available for the national side lowers your club value.

I do think it’s one of the factors why top South African talent has become seemingly less attractive to the big European leagues (Top 14/ProD2; Premiership; URC). In recent seasons, there’s been a near equilibrium between South African players leaving for these leagues and those coming back.

For example, I would think a guy like Ruan Venter at the Lions would be massively attractive to Top 14 clubs, a really physical player who can dominate contact. He also can’t be on that much money at the Lions. But for some reason, it’s not happening. So I do think the potential prospect of him being the long-term PSDT-replacement might have something to do with this, that those clubs are wary of paying him big money, only for him to quickly become a mainstay for the Boks.

@WoodysRFC said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

friendlies

Soccer "friendlies" are anything that doesn't count to World Cups or Conferation cups.

In rugby, Test matches remain Test matches.

Just want to quash the current narrative about the Giteau Law being dropped...

The law was largely dropped during the 2023 RWC and basically fully abolished when Schmidt took over last year. RA have just reiterated recently that the law has been abolished, but the selection policy isn't changing moving forward, Schmidt has already more or less had a carte blanche to select who he wants.

So while there's an argument that we could see more players selected from overseas in the coming years due to the slow adjustment to the removal of the Giteau Law, that's likely going to come down to Les Kiss' personal selection policy. Schmidt has already said he's preferred to select local players where possible and I would be surprised if Kiss operated any differently.

@booboo said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@WoodysRFC said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

friendlies

Soccer "friendlies" are anything that doesn't count to World Cups or Conferation cups.

In rugby, Test matches remain Test matches.

Yeah, and often those friendlies are your nation against any random nation, maybe having a narrower group of top nations has quietly worked in rugbys favour.

@Mr-Fish said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

Schmidt has already said he's preferred to select local players where possible and I would be surprised if Kiss operated any differently.

A lot will depend on what happens after the 2027 home Rugby World Cup. Several crucial Wallaby players – Rob Valetini, Allan Alaalatoa, Angus Bell, Len Ikitau, Nick Frost, Tate McDermott, Jake Gordon, Carlo Tizzano, Billy Pollard – all have contracts that expire in 2027, with the Lions series and home World Cup some of the main reasons for them staying in the country. We've already seen that the Wallabies have issues with player depth.

What happens if even half of these players take overseas deals? Tupou, Skelton, Gleeson, and Hooper are already gone. Jorgensen and Lynagh are signed to 2026 and still need to agree to new deals. What is Rugby Australia’s negotiation leverage, an unwritten rule that local players will be preferred? The extra money from the Lions and home World Cup?

Again, I'm not saying that there's necessarily going to be a mass exodus, as overseas clubs aren't exactly flush with cash. But I do think scrapping the Giteau law is going to be impactful, especially after 2027.

@Mauss

It will be interesting to see what happens.
I think the situation in Australia is a lot different to SA.

The Perth Force wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for a private benefactor; they are surviving, but sure aint thriving.
They can't even sign Australian contracted players right now, without paying a large premium.

And . . . then there is a behemoth NRL in the back ground.
The next few seasons in Perth will probably tell us what the long term outcome for rugby (union) is in Australia.
Although still small when compared to Aussie rules; rugby union is actually a much larger sport (on the field) in Western Australia than rugby league,
This is the only state in Australia where this is the case.
So if the new Perth NRL franchise eclipses the Force, then the outlook for a quality domestic comp in Australia for Wallaby players to even play in wont be good.
This is not the case in SA,. SA will always have some sort of quality domestic comp.

Breakdown - * = uncapped

Hookers
Josh Nasser, BPA, Billy Pollard

Props
Angus Bell, Zane Nonggorr, Tom Robertson, Aidan Ross*, James Slipper, Taniela Tupou

Locks
Nick Frost, Tom Hooper, LSL, Will Skelton, Jeremy Williams

Loose Forwards
Nick CdC, Langi Gleeson, Fraser McReight, Carlo Tizzano, Rob Valetini, Harry Wilson

Scrumhalves
Ryan Lonergan*, Tate McDermott, Nic White

Flyhalves
Ben Donaldson, Tane Edmed, James O'Connor

Centres
Josh Flook, Len Ikitau, Hunter Paisami, JAS

Wings
Max Jorgensen, Dylan Pietsch, Corey Toole*

Fullbacks
Andrew Kellaway, Tom Wright

@NTA said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

Nic White

Didn't he retire?

@booboo He has made himself available for the Rugby Championship following Jake Gordons injury. Would be saving the Wallabies from having to bring in a second uncapped halfback alongside Ryan Lonergan. The only other capped halfback is Issak Fines-Leleiwasa but he seems to have switched his focus to Fiji having signed with the Drua. Expecting to see Lonergan get a decent shot this Rugby Championship

@Trig it'll either be a revelation - I personally think Lonergan is a good player - or it'll get Brumbies fans to STFU :winking_face_with_tongue:

Win-win

@NTA Nick Frost?

Squad largely strong. Fragile at TH and five eighths rather plodding.

@pakman said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@NTA Nick Frost?

Oops. He's there. Edited

Frost is an exceptional athlete. Assume he’ll play 80. Personally I’d like to see LSL take over from Big Will at say 55, to keep the physicality coming.

@barbarian said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

I am 37. Maybe slightly pessimistic. But I'd peg it at maybe 20% chance? We weren't that far away in 2015, if you get a good draw and the bounce of the ball you never know.

Your at home in the next one, and have an way above average 1st XV right at the moment, so a short term approach and build to 2027 gives the Wallbies a real shot, IMHO. I'm not saying they are favourites, but there is a lot of draw luck that goes into it (especially to get to the final) & then that basically just gives you a one off game against the best team in the tournament. At home.

The future will be what it is, but the next 2 years are firmly within control to have a real shot at taking out the big one.

@MiketheSnow said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

I’m 59 this year and still think Wales can do it in my lifetime

Seismic changes required in Welsh rugby for this.

I think even if you and and Barb's swapped ages, I'd still put the money on him.

@NTA How do you rate this young Massimo De Lutiis fella?

@pakman said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@NTA How do you rate this young Massimo De Lutiis fella?

Seems to be a proper tight head. Needs a few years to learn his trade but I'm told he's strong as an ox.

@KiwiMurph lol just wait. They'll blow it all

@NTA said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@KiwiMurph lol just wait. They'll blow it all

Ever the optimist

@KiwiMurph said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@NTA said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

@KiwiMurph lol just wait. They'll blow it all

Ever the optimist

Realist; I've seen this people operate up close

The NRL have goals for a $300M asset base, and they'll get there by investing in property across the land and various other enterprises.

Rugby Australia - despite all these white-collar graduates of the finest educational institutions money can (and does) buy - are just now debt free after years of boom and bust, driven by bad negotiation and a lack of nous; it's like they can't operate outside an old boys network.

Here's a micro-example of who I'm talking about:

As I've asked in various forums, surely there are some hedge fund managers who can put together a couple of billion dollars to fund the sport off interest generated? Add the tiny TV deal we have into that, and we can sustain and grow the sport.

The concept of the Future Fund is great - but I remain to be convinced they know where to send the funding when the landscape is such a mish-mash of self-interest. Meanwhile schools are using government funding to run their ever-shrinking rugby programs as AFL floods the market with cash.

Good signing for the Tahs who seem to burn front rowers at the stake these days

Marky Mark has told the Roosters he wont extend beyond 2026 to play for the Wallabies.. well latest rumour anyway

Congrats to James Slipper - 151 Tests is amazing, even more so when you consider he's done it from the front row!

@antipodean said in Aussie Pro Rugby:

Congrats to James Slipper - 151 Tests is amazing, even more so when you consider he's done it from the front row!

And most of the time on back foot

Some effort. Seems sound too. Was a tremendous Captain through a brutal period for them when Hooper retired.

Some great yarns and hard facts about a tough man (the animal played against the boks with a torn MCL) in this piece: https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/we-asked-11-rugby-people-for-their-favourite-james-slipper-story-here-s-what-they-said-20251002-p5mzjl.html

@Smuts I liked the comment "he's not a country boy but he's country tough"

He actually looks like a blend of two of the front rowers at our club - hooker and loosehead. They're also fairly quiet and robust blokes.

The Force like collecting NZ coaches.

@Bovidae

Yeah, a real NZ tinge at the Force now.
Both the GM and head coach are Kiwis as well.

Jobs for the bros

@NTA

Haha
Yeah, F those Eastern staters!

Seems the rumours about Carter Gordon returning to rugby are about to be confirmed. Announcement on Monday.