All Blacks vs Springboks I

@nzzp said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@majorrage said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

Those odds are nuts, but they are correct if we play like have last few weeks and SA play like they did against Australia.

The fitness is the big thing they can't change in a week. SA didnt' look able to cope with the pace of the game, and if they can't slow it down, that's going to cost them.

Should be titanic. I can't wait.
https://sarugbystats.co.za/south-africa-vs-new-zealand/ has NZ with 59 wins, SA 36 and 4 draws. Way more one sided than it used to be -- in the pro era it was 41-15-1 to NZ.

I'm old enough to remember when they had a winning record against us.

But quite frankly I was just a little too young to remember 1976 in great detail (i recall I watched in the early morning but not much more) and Gert Bezuidenhout who was apparently indicative of much of the reason they did win more often in the Republic.

@cgrant said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

I am more worried about the ABs discipline than the SA bombs. If the ABs are penalised in their own half, this would lead to kicks into touch near their goal line. Remember the first test against the Aussie when the SA scored three tries after rolling mauls. This is the aspect of the game where they are the most threatening IMO. We could see the same scenario as the AB forwards are not very good in defending mauls, with the notable exception of Brodie Retallick.

The big risk is we get caught playing too much side-to-side in the middle of the park, get turned over or give aways of penalties, from which they can launch these kinds of attacks. We did it a bit in the 2nd half against the Argies on Sat, whereas the week before BB would often put up a kick or put one in behind when we found ourselves in that areas of the park without having made much head way after a few phases. Something similar will be needed this weekend

In Sam Cane's absence, Blues openside Dalton Papalii has established his presence as the All Blacks' preferred openside flanker this season. Papalii's physicality on defence, ball carrying ability and strong work over the ball form a compelling package for a 23-year-old prospect.

Papalii suffered a minor hamstring injury in the first win over the Pumas, and must now prove his fitness to be considered to play the Boks in Townsville on Saturday. Hamstrings can be problematic, particularly for someone charged with maintaining a strong base and gaining breakdown turnovers.

Foster has been keen this season to make calls on player availability early in the week in order to give those who will take the field as much time as possible to prepare. Time is, therefore, against Papallii.

The same may be true for Anton Lienert-Brown, who hasn't featured since the Bledisloe victory in Perth after injuring his hamstring in training one day before the first test against the Pumas.

@tim I don't think anyone will cry into their cornflakes if we're "forced" to go with Ioane/Savea/Jacobson and Blackadder/Sotutu eh.

Would like ALB back though.

@bones said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@tim I don't think anyone will cry into their cornflakes if we're "forced" to go with Ioane/Savea/Jacobson and Blackadder/Sotutu eh.

Would like ALB back though.

I’d actually prefer this one against the Boks even if Dalton is fit.

Back 3 will be interesting if ALB isn’t fit.

@act-crusader said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@bones said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@tim I don't think anyone will cry into their cornflakes if we're "forced" to go with Ioane/Savea/Jacobson and Blackadder/Sotutu eh.

Would like ALB back though.

I’d actually prefer this one against the Boks even if Dalton is fit.

Back 3 will be interesting if ALB isn’t fit.

If it occurred would be interesting to see Ardie and LJ alternating 7/8 depending or whether attacking or defensive scrum.

@act-crusader ya reckon? If he's unfit I can't see it not being Bridge/Jordie/Reece.

@bones said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@act-crusader ya reckon? If he's unfit I can't see it not being Bridge/Jordie/Reece.

I’m hoping for that but I have this feeling they might go back to the DMac well…

And it could be a DMac/Jordan/Bridge

@act-crusader said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@bones said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@act-crusader ya reckon? If he's unfit I can't see it not being Bridge/Jordie/Reece.

I’m hoping for that but I have this feeling they might go back to the DMac well…

And it could be a DMac/Jordan/Bridge

Yeah, I would be uneasy about Jordan starting against a team that could really capitalise on his shortcomings - bring him off the bench to rub salt in the wounds a la his tinarse predecessor, BB.

@act-crusader said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@bones said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@act-crusader ya reckon? If he's unfit I can't see it not being Bridge/Jordie/Reece.

I’m hoping for that but I have this feeling they might go back to the DMac well…

And it could be a DMac/Jordan/Bridge

As long as we don’t have Jordie on the wing, I think we’ll be ok.

I’m sure that Dmac will be on the bench, so if ALB is unfit, the question will be whether Jordan can force his way to 14 and make the selectors choose between Bridge and Reece. In that case, Tupaea takes the bench spot, unless they are happy for Jordie/Reece to cover midfield.

If ALB is fit, he’ll either take the bench role or Rieko will, but if they start both then Jordan off the bench makes sense.

@mariner4life said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

i don't really believe in all this "motivating the opposition" guff, this isn't park football

but

we are starting to talk this up to uncomfortable levels.

Only a four-star clown or 5 star idiot would write off the Boks.

@bones said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@tim I don't think anyone will cry into their cornflakes if we're "forced" to go with Ioane/Savea/Jacobson and Blackadder/Sotutu eh.

6/7/8 seems to be the one area we really don't need to worry too much about.

Would like ALB back though.

Yep. But I'm much less concerned now Reiko has some game time under his belt

For me aerial ability and low error rate earns Bridge hsis spot. Similarly ALB experience and low error rate earns his. Kind of leaves the other wing spot up for grabs, with Reiko, Sevu and Jordan all being somewhat flaky at times but I would have a toss-up between Jordan and Ioane because they at least can break a game open.

Yup…loosies loosies loosies …PSDT a big loss for us. Tackle count always brilliant and out with his shoulder(again) till next year by the looks of it. Duane just back off injury and not hundreds even if that means he is still first choice. Don’t expect him to do anything other than improve on post injury gametime clock….Age against him but watched him and Flo (FLouw) in provincials and some things dont change that much. He is first choice if fit IMO. Jasper Wiese is almost certainly a like-for-like mobility size choice. Defensive organization Duane tops of course….then our ex sevens player (voted best looking guy in comp right here on TSF:) Kwagga coz he was at RWC and knows. Van Staden still green and Elstadt used to be a card magnet. And Siya still coming back to his best post injury but value as glue incalculable. ABs have guys firing. Don’t know we won’t…but have t been….missed team tackle count both Oz tests awful….it has to improve or we are def toast… Hope Cheslin fit and Willemse and RG Snyman get starts with a couple bench tweaks. Its going to get messy….can’t wait

@mantissanet RG Snyman won't start for Munster. We need fire power Etsebeth and maybe Elstadt. In the face defense will do for 80 minutes. Anything positive will do at the moment.

@dmx said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

For me aerial ability and low error rate earns Bridge hsis spot. Similarly ALB experience and low error rate earns his. Kind of leaves the other wing spot up for grabs, with Reiko, Sevu and Jordan all being somewhat flaky at times but I would have a toss-up between Jordan and Ioane because they at least can break a game open.

For me, I'd pick Reiko over any other 11 option. He's just a more mature player for me.

@victor-meldrew said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@bones said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@tim I don't think anyone will cry into their cornflakes if we're "forced" to go with Ioane/Savea/Jacobson and Blackadder/Sotutu eh.

6/7/8 seems to be the one area we really don't need to worry too much about.

Would like ALB back though.

Yep. But I'm much less concerned now Reiko has some game time under his belt

Would still be a bit concerned if we ended up with DMac/Tuapea/Rieko in tight match with Boks. We’re still quite short on Backline ‘grey hair’.

@pakman said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@victor-meldrew said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@bones said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@tim I don't think anyone will cry into their cornflakes if we're "forced" to go with Ioane/Savea/Jacobson and Blackadder/Sotutu eh.

6/7/8 seems to be the one area we really don't need to worry too much about.

Would like ALB back though.

Yep. But I'm much less concerned now Reiko has some game time under his belt

Would still be a bit concerned if we ended up with DMac/Tuapea/Rieko in tight match with Boks. We’re still quite short on Backline ‘grey hair’.

Agreed, I was thinking more of BB/DH/RI.

That said, I want to see more DMac/Tuapea/Rieko playing together to build that experience.

I'll eat my hat if we lose to this rabble!

(Am I doing it right??)

@hooroo said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

I'll eat my hat if we lose to this rabble!

(Am I doing it right??)

I have recipies.

@bones said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@act-crusader ya reckon? If he's unfit I can't see it not being Bridge/Jordie/Reece.

Ugh, I just threw up a wee bit.

Hopefully, ALB will be fit - and then I want to see a back three of Rieko, Will and Jordie.

It's been a dull year - let's live a little!!!

At least I'm probably not going to be more conservative than Fozzie - unless he gives DMac the 15 jersey!

I'm picking Fozzie will go for his more experienced and/or conservative options pretty much everywhere, so Sevu in the 14 jersey.

@kirwan said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@hooroo said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

I'll eat my hat if we lose to this rabble!

(Am I doing it right??)

I have recipies.

Never discount the bokke

@chris-b said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

Hopefully, ALB will be fit - and then I want to see a back three of Rieko, Will and Jordie.

It's been a dull year - let's live a little!!!

At least I'm probably not going to be more conservative than Fozzie - unless he gives DMac the 15 jersey!

I'm picking Fozzie will go for his more experienced and/or conservative options pretty much everywhere, so Sevu in the 14 jersey.

that what i would love to see

wont complain if we see reece and will understand of they see Bridge as a safe bet under the high ball...but reiko on one side and jordan on the other could be great

TAB odds for SA out to $4.45.

@kiwiwomble said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@chris-b said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

Hopefully, ALB will be fit - and then I want to see a back three of Rieko, Will and Jordie.

It's been a dull year - let's live a little!!!

At least I'm probably not going to be more conservative than Fozzie - unless he gives DMac the 15 jersey!

I'm picking Fozzie will go for his more experienced and/or conservative options pretty much everywhere, so Sevu in the 14 jersey.

that what i would love to see

wont complain if we see reece and will understand of they see Bridge as a safe bet under the high ball...but reiko on one side and jordan on the other could be great

I will complain like a muthafucka. Not that it will have any effect whatsoever, but some anger typing is good therapy.

@nepia i also wont complain about you or anyone else complaining

@tim That's more like it!

Getting into the realms of being worth an insurance bet!

I am sure the analysts have looked closely at where Faf likes to box kick, but from memory against the Wallabies it was more to the left wing. I remember Hodge shelling a couple from fullback and Koroibete under some high balls but not so much Kellaway. I could be wrong.

@tim said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

TAB odds for SA out to $4.45.

I know a good Rolex distributor, just saying…

@tim Pretty close the starting XV I reckon.

I'll be surprised if he gets the bench right, though. I can see up to five different choices there.

@bovidae said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

I am sure the analysts have looked closely at where Faf likes to box kick, but from memory against the Wallabies it was more to the left wing. I remember Hodge shelling a couple from fullback and Koroibete under some high balls but not so much Kellaway. I could be wrong.

You're exactly right. They left Kellaway well alone on the high ball

@bovidae yeah I was thinking they did put several Koroibete's way...I think most of our backs are pretty handy under the high ball, but probably Jordan, Jordie, Reiko & Bridge in particular, meaning the kicks and chase need to be bang on to put pressure.

Dmac and Reece are pretty handy too, but with both under tall it does make it more contestable

It would be nice to have a winger who's a good tactical kicker like the good old days :winking_face:

Like one of Dagg, Ben Smith, Cory Jane depending on the back three at the time.

I'm guessing that's why Fozzie tried out Jordie on the wing ... but he's just not a winger.

@tim said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

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What game did the writer watch?

"Braydon Ennor is percolating nicely in his return from a couple of debilitating setbacks in the last year. He came off the bench and looked the part and isn’t far away from being thrown a start."

Eh? The guy did SFA.

@crucial but he looked the part, not doing it.

To be fair to the writer, Ennor will be thrown a start soon. In DC.

@dogmeat said in All Blacks vs Springboks I:

@crucial but he looked the part, not doing it.

Ah! A bit like the Hammett era Canes