All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider

Here’s the team I think they’ll go with. No chance of mass changes or Cane being dropped.

1. Bower
2. Taukei’aho
3. Ofa
4. Retallick
5. Va’ai
6. Barrett
7. Cane
8. Ardie
9. Smith
10. Beaudy
11. Reece
12. Goodhue
13. Reiko
14. Jordan
15. Barrett

Res - Tu’unukuafe, Taylor, Nepo, Patty, Papali’i, Christie, Mo’unga, Tupaea

I’d love Akira to start but he hasn’t played in like a month? This assuming Whitelock is unavailable and Va’ai is fit.

@TheMojoman That looks about right but I reckon Havili is a better chance of the 23 jersey given his versatility.

@Bones has AT been carded for that sort of thing before? I can't recall. And LF?

@Crazy-Horse I don't remember Ta'avao ever having issues with tackle height before. And he is a tall prop.

@Crazy-Horse said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@Bones has AT been carded for that sort of thing before? I can't recall. And LF?

I don't know, but charging at a ball carrier at full height isn't often going to end well.

@antipodean said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@chimoaus said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Given current WR guidelines re red and yellow cards do you think some teams have adapted better than others or is it pure luck?

Listening to O'Gara talk he said they spend a lot of time in the background covering these things and they are fully aware of the rules and outcomes. Said he though LF could have been red under guidelines and no issue with AT red.

I agree Leicester could have been red, but to say he didn't have a problem with Angus' red card has to be disingenuous. That or he wants WR to apply his playing days' approach to physical contact.

It's opinions like his that are making a mockery of rugby.

I don't think he was giving his opinion on if he believes it should be red, just that under current WR guidelines it was Red. There is a difference, and I guess a good coach is going to coach to the WR guidelines, not on their opinion.

@Mattasaurus said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Official's

New Zealand v Ireland
Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)
ARs: Karl Dickson (RFU) & Christophe Ridley (RFU)
TMO: Tom Foley (RFU

Have to say I'm pretty keen to see Barnes in the middle after his performance in the MAB vs IRE 1st Test. I thought he managed that game well.

Me too mate, I actually like the way Barnes refs, from what I have seen of him in NH comp looks to be a reasonably calm ref.

So who else is going to the test on Saturday?

@Dan54 I'm heading along so hopefully we put out an inspired performance.

@chimoaus said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@antipodean said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@chimoaus said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Given current WR guidelines re red and yellow cards do you think some teams have adapted better than others or is it pure luck?

Listening to O'Gara talk he said they spend a lot of time in the background covering these things and they are fully aware of the rules and outcomes. Said he though LF could have been red under guidelines and no issue with AT red.

I agree Leicester could have been red, but to say he didn't have a problem with Angus' red card has to be disingenuous. That or he wants WR to apply his playing days' approach to physical contact.

It's opinions like his that are making a mockery of rugby.

I don't think he was giving his opinion on if he believes it should be red, just that under current WR guidelines it was Red. There is a difference, and I guess a good coach is going to coach to the WR guidelines, not on their opinion.

I read it as he was giving us his opinion after he said Leicester's card could've been red. Telling us that something is what it was (Angus getting a red card) is simply stating a fact, not an insight.

@TheMojoman said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Here’s the team I think they’ll go with. No chance of mass changes or Cane being dropped.

1. Bower
2. Taukei’aho
3. Ofa
4. Retallick
5. Va’ai
6. Barrett
7. Cane
8. Ardie
9. Smith
10. Beaudy
11. Reece
12. Goodhue
13. Reiko
14. Jordan
15. Barrett

Res - Tu’unukuafe, Taylor, Nepo, Patty, Papali’i, Christie, Mo’unga, Tupaea

I’d love Akira to start but he hasn’t played in like a month? This assuming Whitelock is unavailable and Va’ai is fit.

He came back firing in SR after a long layoff, so not a player that needs a lot gametime to make an impact.

Looks like SW will be available. So there will be no need to find a place for PT in the 23. I’ve nothing against the guy but he is simply not an attacking or defensive lineout option at the highest level.

So the coaches have to decide if they want 3 locks in the starting XV like test 1. POM is a fantastic lineout option for Ireland both on own and opposition ball so one of the loosies has to be capable IMO. Otherwise they can throw to him on attack and we are obliged to use a lock on our own ball which Ryan and to a lesser extent beirne will attack.

@Dan54 said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

So who else is going to the test on Saturday?

I’m going to see the well coached team in black on Tues (Currently in the Koru lounge downing free beers), but have to be back up north for a St John course on the weekend, so no ABs for me, sadly

With our ingenious attacking strategy, we almost need a loose forward trio of Akira, Ardie, and Sotutu as ball runners to try and salvage something from long, flat passes to an attacker catching the ball three feet from the Irish defensive line with a predicable target on them...

@Donsteppa ....hold on...you mean play a 6 at 6....a 7 at 7...and a 8 at 8?.....madness

ABs to post a crushing win and save Fozzie for another 5 glorious years EDIT: of mediocrity

@Kiwiwomble said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@Donsteppa ....hold on...you mean play a 6 at 6....a 7 at 7...and a 8 at 8?.....madness

That plus also a coherent attacking strategy would be even better, but it's a start

(I originally had Akira, Sotutu, and PGS as ball runners/cannon fodder under the current AB's attack strategy, but hands.).

@TheMojoman said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Here’s the team I think they’ll go with. No chance of mass changes or Cane being dropped.

1. Bower
2. Taukei’aho
3. Ofa
4. Retallick
5. Va’ai
6. Barrett
7. Cane
8. Ardie
9. Smith
10. Beaudy
11. Reece
12. Goodhue
13. Reiko
14. Jordan
15. Barrett

Res - Tu’unukuafe, Taylor, Nepo, Patty, Papali’i, Christie, Mo’unga, Tupaea

I’d love Akira to start but he hasn’t played in like a month? This assuming Whitelock is unavailable and Va’ai is fit.

Looks like Sam W will be fit, and I tend to think Havili may just get 12 shirt.

@chimoaus said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Given current WR guidelines re red and yellow cards do you think some teams have adapted better than others or is it pure luck?

Listening to O'Gara talk he said they spend a lot of time in the background covering these things and they are fully aware of the rules and outcomes. Said he though LF could have been red under guidelines and no issue with AT red.

We can debate the foul play aspect all day long but both teams play under the same rules and smart teams will adapt and train players not to jump into charge downs. Try to get lower etc etc.

I am still slightly cynical just how much a difference coaching can make to these instincts and fast paced decisions but at some point, someone like Ofa, SB are ticking bombs in terms of cards.

Edit: O'Gara also said he instantly knew the Savea sub was an error and was surprised Foster and Co let it happen.

Been saying this for some time now.

This is a coaching decision and a player execution problem.

If a coach categorically tells his charges ‘inside the 22 don’t even think about trying to intercept a pass with one hand’ then the coaching team has determined that the reward of an interception and negating a try scoring opportunity is far outweighed by a penalty and YC at least, penalty try and YC at most PLUS playing the next 10 minutes which may leak additional points in that 10-man period and the man down creating additional fatigue for the 14 left on the park which may have implications deeper in the match.

If a coaching team has taken that decision then any one handed interception attempt inside the 22 is the player’s decision.

Player gets lucky and intercepts and it should still be a bollocking by the coaching team.

Player fails, then it’s off for 10, then subbed by coaching team.

That’s how you create a culture and take the referee out of the decision making process.

Repeat the same tactical evaluation with kick charge downs and kick contesting in the air as two other potential high reward, high risk situations.

Tackle zone is a coaching problem

Aim lower. It really is as simple as that.

The reds and TMOs are more involved in matches with certain teams because of the coaching culture.

@MiketheSnow said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Aim lower. It really is as simple as that.

it's really not

and statements like this help no one

A million red cards would not have stopped what happened to AT on the weekend

@mariner4life said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@MiketheSnow said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Aim lower. It really is as simple as that.

it's really not

and statements like this help no one

A million red cards would not have stopped what happened to AT on the weekend

One isolated incident that possibly happens a couple of times a season.

I was specifically talking about a defender attempting to tackle the ball carrier.

High reward if you aim above the nipple, high risk and deserved sanction if you get the execution wrong.

Every coaching team bangs on about eliminating mistakes.

This normally translates as not messing up a try scoring opportunity through poor skills and/or decision making whilst under pressure.

The good defensive coaches have worked out that easiest and quickest change they can make to a team is tell them aim lower.

i dont think i have actually said where i stand on the Red card, to me it looked like he was lining up irish player 1...who offloaded it to irish player 2 who was coming back towards AT, the gap he had to get low suddenly closed and he was caught out, i think a pure accident...but wasn't surpurprided to see the card given how these things are being officiated...but i honestly dont know how much he could have done

the LT one i think is easier to see where the players need to change, he's thrown himself into the air where he has no control over himself in front of the irish player

Pick whoever you want but change your bloody tactics. Get some forward domination at the contact and contest the breakdown. Cut back on the kicking, go tight then unleash the backs. Need to outmuscle up front. Bullshit box kicks and aimless kicks at 5/8 have to go. No issues with the squad just the fucking non-existent tactics.

@Kiwiwomble Ta'avao has always been a grub, he finally got caught.

@mariner4life said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

A million red cards would not have stopped what happened to AT on the weekend

I changed my mind on Angus. Highlights below, 4.47 in.

He advances, dips slightly and then stays upright. If he'd slowed down he'd probably get away with a yellow for being passive. But the movement forward is what's goign to get him in trouble with the laws they way they are.

also, all this and we don't talk about the shitty ruck play by Ireland lying long back from rucks. It's classic Gatland ploy, slowing ruck speed... cynical as shit, but right on the edge of legality. Smart play.

AT was obviously an accident, you don't try and tackle people with your face. If he was trying to lead with the head he would have use his forehead not his nose. As @taniwharugby says, reds used to be for deliberate acts of filth, now they are being used for what are clearly accidents in a fast paced, high contact sport (no other sport in the world compares to rugby in this regard). If we're giving reds for AT, then there's going to be plenty more reds dished out as players collide with each other, and plenty more games ruined as a contest.

Are fans really OK with that?

@No-Quarter he take a total of one step between the pass the "tackle"...thats a fraction of a second

@Kiwiwomble said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@No-Quarter he take a total of one step between the pass the "tackle"...thats a fraction of a second

enough time to try and pull out a bit, and get more passive as he was in teh wrong body position.

It's tough, but he was pushing up hard to close the time and space down. That's his job, but it brings a degree of responsibility.

Reckless at worst, but in the current environment, that's a correct Red card. We should talk in the state of the game thread about whether it should be or not. The game's a bit fucked at the moment.

@nzzp said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@mariner4life said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

A million red cards would not have stopped what happened to AT on the weekend

I changed my mind on Angus. Highlights below, 4.47 in.

He advances, dips slightly and then stays upright. If he'd slowed down he'd probably get away with a yellow for being passive. But the movement forward is what's goign to get him in trouble with the laws they way they are.

also, all this and we don't talk about the shitty ruck play by Ireland lying long back from rucks. It's classic Gatland ploy, slowing ruck speed... cynical as shit, but right on the edge of legality. Smart play.

View embedded content

Finally

The attacker changed direction, so too the defender.

The defender has both arms around the attacker ready to make the tackle.

The attacker’s movements were quicker than the defender’s, and the defender came in too high.

Put those two factors together and you have what transpired - head on head contact.

Did the defender purposefully aim for the head?

No

Did it happen due to (lack of) speed of tackle execution?

Yes

RC

If you don't want to see this happen again, then select smallish forwards like Blackwell, Kirifi or Riccitelli.:beaming_face_with_smiling_eyes:

@MiketheSnow said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@chimoaus said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

Given current WR guidelines re red and yellow cards do you think some teams have adapted better than others or is it pure luck?

Listening to O'Gara talk he said they spend a lot of time in the background covering these things and they are fully aware of the rules and outcomes. Said he though LF could have been red under guidelines and no issue with AT red.

We can debate the foul play aspect all day long but both teams play under the same rules and smart teams will adapt and train players not to jump into charge downs. Try to get lower etc etc.

I am still slightly cynical just how much a difference coaching can make to these instincts and fast paced decisions but at some point, someone like Ofa, SB are ticking bombs in terms of cards.

Edit: O'Gara also said he instantly knew the Savea sub was an error and was surprised Foster and Co let it happen.

Been saying this for some time now.

This is a coaching decision and a player execution problem.

If a coach categorically tells his charges ‘inside the 22 don’t even think about trying to intercept a pass with one hand’ then the coaching team has determined that the reward of an interception and negating a try scoring opportunity is far outweighed by a penalty and YC at least, penalty try and YC at most PLUS playing the next 10 minutes which may leak additional points in that 10-man period and the man down creating additional fatigue for the 14 left on the park which may have implications deeper in the match.

If a coaching team has taken that decision then any one handed interception attempt inside the 22 is the player’s decision.

Player gets lucky and intercepts and it should still be a bollocking by the coaching team.

Player fails, then it’s off for 10, then subbed by coaching team.

That’s how you create a culture and take the referee out of the decision making process.

Repeat the same tactical evaluation with kick charge downs and kick contesting in the air as two other potential high reward, high risk situations.

Tackle zone is a coaching problem

Aim lower. It really is as simple as that.

The reds and TMOs are more involved in matches with certain teams because of the coaching culture.

@MiketheSnow why do you hate rugby considering you're welsh??

@Canes4life said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@Dan54 I'm heading along so hopefully we put out an inspired performance.

Too many Canes….supporters

Enjoy the game mate, hope it’s a good one.

@stodders Structure = strategy = coaching = sack Foster and his team

@MrDenmore said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@stodders Structure = strategy = coaching = sack Foster and his team

Looking at that video, Bower had a couple of misses, one was from a good step from the Irish hooker.

The rest confirm what was observed on the week. Tu'ungafasi had an incredibly poor game, but Taylor was not far behind. Ireland targeted him, especially his outside shoulder. Both were a liability on defence.

Based on their performances, dropping one or both would not come as a surprise to either of them. ST to start with Coles on the bench. Can Bower cover tighthead to allow Ross to start at loosehead? Or is that too much of a risk?

@ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@Canes4life said in All Blacks vs Ireland - series decider:

@Dan54 I'm heading along so hopefully we put out an inspired performance.

Too many Canes….supporters

Enjoy the game mate, hope it’s a good one.

Cheers mate, here’s hoping the wind and rain stays away.

Another thing worth mentioning is how Ireland have started each half in the 2 tests so far. It has been eerily similar to how England started the WC semi in 2019.

Ireland have been running multi-phase patterned moves and have reaped the rewards. Coincidence? Irish energy levels would be highest in these periods and they are putting everything into their attack at the beginning of each half to obtain an advantage. So far, it has worked.

IMO, the ABs counter this by taking a longer term approach to the game and use the kicking game to suffocate Ireland. Make them play their way out of their territory. Don't give them easy metres or easy kicks to exit.