So, St Helens upset the applecart and Penrith's walk in the park to the world championship wanders off ...
Kind of amused at how much of a foregone conclusion this was, given Penrith are favourites to win the toughest competeetion in tha Wooorld... again
And so the preseason is done, and the NRL is a week away.
The mickey mousest of mickey mouse preseason comps is completed, with Manly winning because they chucked more offloads than Cronulla.
We all know preseason form means less than dogshit, but if you are looking for hot takes
Penrith are cooked. The salary cap and Gus Gould buying everyone has eroded them. Write them off.
Manly, by virtue of winning the preseason, are now premiership favourites
The Warriors will make the 8 or battle for the spoon depending on which week you pay attention to
In a slightly more nuanced view
Cronulla look good, and should push in to the top 4. Not a huge leap as they were good last year as well. Moylan and Hynes, for a couple of fullbacks, seem to forming this great halves combination.
I think Penrith will come back to the pack. Kikau and Koroisau are big losses. They have also lost May for the season. And their reliable backup in Staines is gone too. Penrith are built on metres from the back 3, and leveraging that in to smothering linespeed. Losing a couple of metre-eaters will definitely hurt that. Kikau leaves a huge hole on the left, and will mean the wildly overhyped Luai will have more to do. They are still a lock for the top 4 unless their luck with injury reverses, because Yeo, Cleary, and Edwards, as well as their prop rotation remains among the best out there.
The Roosters will be fucking good as well, as long as their midget halves stay on the park. Cheese will add a bit to them. How do they use Joey Manu, who has become too good to stash at centre? Same with Sua'ali'i.
The Cowboys have retained everyone they wanted, but if they want to push on they can't have a bunch of guys get 2nd year syndrome, a bit more luck with injury, and for Townsend to keep playing at the same level.
Souths are the other big danger i think. But their particular game plan has way more risk of a shit performance than the way the other main contenders play.
Surely Melbourne are dead? They lost their pack. Their super fragile fullback will miss 2 months, and probably get hurt again when ever he returns?
The battle for the Spoon will be epic. The Dolphins are odds-on, even the wildly over-hyped Wayne Bennet can't help them. The Knight's are a disaster zone, and their coach will be first sacked. Unless the Dragons pull the trigger first. The Warriors are in this as well. They is a lack of quality all over the squad, and as the season grinds on, and the injuries mount, so will the losses. There were some green shoots of positivity in preseason, and i am less secure in my Spoon bet on them than i was 3 weeks ago.
Haven't watched much pre season so big predictions might be a bit tough.
Agree about Penrith but will still be top four
Melbourne with team raided and Paps still broken will still be top four
Cronulla will be up there
Roosters who unbelievably manage to stay under salary caps will round it out
Cowboys could be top four again but saying they make the 8 for bold predictions
Doggies will have to be the most improved team this year but wont make top four, but should be in the eight.
Not convinced on who rounds out the eight, injuries to star players probably will have an influence..Latrell and Turbo the obvious contenders. If they stay fit then the top eight includes both.
Hard to pick the order of the rest and as @mariner4life suggests Dolphins should be odds on for spoon, but usual contenders cant be far away. Newcastle the closest for me.
As for the warriors, the team actually looked pretty good against the storm minus the woeful halves who created no pressure and no creative attacks. If the halves do click, we may win a few, the forward pack especially looking a lot more solid. Not enough to be a top team in my opinion though
@bayimports said in NRL 2023:
Hard to pick the order of the res
got to have a go though aye?
Cronulla
Penrith
Roosters
Cowboys
Souths
Melbourne
Brisbane
Manly
Parramatta
Gold Coast
Bulldogs
Raiders
Tigers
Warriors
Dragons
Knights
Dolphins
Cowboys beat the Roosters in the GF
@mariner4life for when we laugh at how far off we were
Roosters
Cronulla
Penrith
Melbourne
Cowboys
Souths
Parramatta
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Manly
Raiders
Warriors
Tigers
Dragons
Knights
Dolphins
@bayimports do it every year. Never close
@mariner4life nice write up, although I will watch 2 fifths of fuck all NRL still good to get the heads up.
BTW who was our previous league correspondent?
@mariner4life nice write up, although I will watch 2 fifths of fuck all NRL still good to get the heads up.
BTW who was our previous league correspondent?
@Sneakdefreak ...
@mariner4life nice write up, although I will watch 2 fifths of fuck all NRL still good to get the heads up.
BTW who was our previous league correspondent?
@Sneakdefreak ...
Yeah we miss his warriors run down
That sucks man. I know of a couple of people do suffer from it. It can really mess you up big time
on money matters. The ongoing "negotiations" for the new CBA are being played out through the media. Talk that the players will strike for R1 (fat fucking chance), and the season launch event was cancelled.
And the Roosters' salary sombrero seems to have an infinite brim as they have signed the Knights' best player for 2024. But word is today he could be in Eastern Sydney by Monday. How they fuck the fit another international in to that team is beyond me. They'll medically retire some bloke at 29 on their list and say that frees up the cap space or some other bullshit. They've somehow managed to keep Matt Lodge as well? Added Cheese. Upgraded Radley's contract. And all under the cap. They have the best accountants.
I mean, fucking come on
and also add Spencer Leniu..ole! <mariachi band plays> best part is they are still asking for salary cap dispensation for Chrichton.. law unto themselves
@mariner4life Cheats, but don't worry, they're the media darlings so they'll get away with it as usual.
@bayimports said in NRL 2023:
and also add Spencer Leniu..ole! <mariachi band plays> best part is they are still asking for salary cap dispensation for Chrichton.. law unto themselves
the expectation is JWH retires at the end of 2023 and this is the room for Leniu
Roosters supporters tie themselves in knots trying to explain why all this is perfectly reasonable
The bigger problem for the league i think is if it is all above board. That means that certain clubs can build incredible rosters within the equalisation measures, while struggling clubs have to pay huge overs for mid-tier talent. Basically if the Roosters can do this legitimately, it will show you can only compete if you are already at the top.
@bayimports said in NRL 2023:
@mariner4life for when we laugh at how far off we were
Roosters
Cronulla
Penrith
Melbourne
Cowboys
Souths
Parramatta
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Manly
Raiders
Warriors
Tigers
Dragons
Knights
Dolphins
You left the Titans out
My contribution to the comic relief
Roosters
Penrith
Cowboys
Melbourne
Souths
Parramatta
Bulldogs
Cronulla
Raiders
Brisbane
Titans
Manly
Warriors - it’s our year
Tigers
Dragons
Dolphins
Knights
Fuck!!
But for good reason. I expect them to push hard for the 8, so they'll probably come 15th
Harder to pick than a broken nose
So the latest journeyman Oz player the Warriors are running out with at centre is Brayden Wiliame, a 30 year old who was released by St George in 2021 and seems to have managed two appearances for Perpignan in the Top14 last year.
I guess I should be happy he's not a second rower shoehorned into centre.
Right apologies I am not @Sneakdefreak but thought someone should do a take for the Warriors.. so here is the sneakless version (we miss you wherever you are), using first team list for the year. First home game to be played in Wellington since 2019
Fullback: CNK has first go at this position. Was custodian at Canberra until Savage came onto the scene. Great at hitting the ball up from the back, not necessarily the best as an extra play maker. Te Maire Martin would have also been considered for this slot depending on how the halves develop. Tuapiki is a young talent but likely only to see game time via injury.
WIngers: DWZ and Marcelo Montoya are the incumbents and solid wingers both capable of also returning kicks from deep to help the forwards. Marcelo doesn’t have a great track record at the judiciary so hopefully doesn’t spend much time there. Good finishers just need decent ball. Kosi developing and is probably the best finisher, but needs to work on his other skills.
Centres: For me the weakest area outside of the halves. CNK can also play here after doing this successfully for the Raiders, may get a shot later in the year if Te Maire Martin moves to fullback. For me this will also reply on the fitness of young Luke Metcalf who is injured. Metcalf would have started for the Sharks last year if the Warriors had not bought him. Was very good in the trial match against Tigers in first hit out before injury. This leaves us with journeyman Williame (who played French rugby last couple of years after getting dropped by St George lol. ). Viliami Vailea is young and looked ok but needs more time, Pompey who also had some solid but not spectacular moments and Rocco Berry who will probably only get a crack if all of above are injured.
Halves and Hooker: SJ - to his credit is 2kg less than last year for game day playing weight. We all know what he can do when he takes on the line, just has never done it often enough. Option taking and poor pass selection (intercepts) has been high in last couple of years. Defence is optional especially if behind. On his day though he will bring a smile to many kiwis, just hoping that is not just in reruns. Back up is young Volkman but he also needs more time before running the show although will likely get a few chances, stolen also from Roosters development squad there are some high future hopes here. Te Maire Martin is a good play maker and we will need someone to create. Metcalf I think will play six later this year. Dylan Walker likely to play an impact role off the bench covering a few roles. Egan is the starting hooker and although his first season was not great, actually had some really strong moments last year in a disappointing team darting from dummy half. Lussick is the backup hooker although with Walker to play off the bench this week and the rest forward rotation, will also cover this area.
Middles (props and 13) : AFB and Mitch Barnett as starting props. Lots of big mobile go forward and hard hitting right here (not all legal). Both capable of offloads and unfortunately errors. Barnett is an unlikeable hot head but when he is focussed he has a strong work ethic and makes a lot of tackles. Kicks at above 75% if needed. Afoa and Ale round out the rotation here, Ale is still young and has gone through the dev system. They let a few others go to keep him. Tohu Harris will start at lock and likely to easily slip into prop rotation when Curran/Walker to also see time here. Tevaga to also come back at some stage as an interchange specialist.
Second row: Marata Niukore and Jackson Ford to start on the edges with some big expectations on Niukore especially to bring a hard edge. Ford the standard for aussie average but does a job without many errors. Bayley Sironen to also come back and compete but after last trial Webster will roll out the two newbies. Barnett and Harris can also play on the edge if injuries occur.
Summary: Cant see this being the warriors year. If we make the top eight (and I would call that enough to say it was our year), we would need to score more points and reduce basic errors. We were one of the worst attacking teams last year and a lot comes down to creating opportunities. We do though have a harder edge to our team this year and should not concede as often in tight games. In fact if we can capitalise on that harder edge on defence (legally) then we should improve overall and with this squad that is possible. If we get behind by a lot and heads go down then Im sure we will revert to what we know. Possible finish in run for the 8 until late but finish 12.
Game 1: In Wellington vs Newcastle. Warriors should be favourites here. In NZ and not playing one of the top teams. Newcastle look stronger in the backs even without Quadzilla (Marzhew) and I think we all hope Ponga doesn’t take a head knock but this is league and will likely happen, just hope with his history he isn’t out for half a season from game 1. They will score points and the Warriors will have to find ways to score other than from luck. In saying that they should be able to subdue Newcastle through size and power but not convincingly. Warriors by 4.
Team lists below
@bayimports Thanks that was a good summary for someone like me who doesn't follow league closely. I've aded that to the front page with a few pictures
I've been looking for longish posts to throw up on the website. Strangely even though we are primarily a rugby site the only one's of found over the last week have been this one and the NRL by @mariner4life
@bayimports good write up
but that team isn't good enough to win the NSW Cup let alone "push for the 8" in the NRL
I think we'll score more points because Brown was fixated on playing risk-free dour shitbox football. And he was a crap coach
I saw more shape in the trials than i did all year last year. SJ is a total bust and while he will start this weekend, if the coach is actually focused on improvement, he'll be out of the team by week 3.
While i expect to lose nearly every week, i hope we play with some fucking intent and give us something to watch, because tuning in to watch your team play dour football and still get dicked gets harder and harder as the year progresses. Have a fucking go. And when in doubt, pick youth.
@bayimports Thanks that was a good summary for someone like me who doesn't follow league closely. I've aded that to the front page with a few pictures
I've been looking for longish posts to throw up on the website. Strangely even though we are primarily a rugby site the only one's of found over the last week have been this one and the NRL by @mariner4life
lol nothing i say should be promoted anywhere
Write more than two semi coherent paragraphs and you are a TSF subject expert
Write more than two semi coherent paragraphs and you are a TSF subject expert
i do that? high fucken 5!
@mariner4life said in NRL 2023:
@bayimports good write up
but that team isn't good enough to win the NSW Cup let alone "push for the 8" in the NRL
I think we'll score more points because Brown was fixated on playing risk-free dour shitbox football. And he was a crap coach
I saw more shape in the trials than i did all year last year. SJ is a total bust and while he will start this weekend, if the coach is actually focused on improvement, he'll be out of the team by week 3.
While i expect to lose nearly every week, i hope we play with some fucking intent and give us something to watch, because tuning in to watch your team play dour football and still get dicked gets harder and harder as the year progresses. Have a fucking go. And when in doubt, pick youth.
To be fair I said they would finish 12th ..they would have hopes of 8th and have a chance with a myriad of other teams, but would fail. I agree entirely with your assessment of SJ, I am not even sure he plays out this year. Luke Metcalf is an exciting prospect..hopefully he is fit enough to play most of the year while SJ retires off early into the sunset
@bayimports said in NRL 2023:
Luke Metcalf is an exciting prospect.
My god I hope this dude lives up to the hype he's been getting, but I also hope he doesn't become another Chad Townsend where he looks like a local club player for us before going on to win a premiership with Cronulla.
@bayimports said in NRL 2023:
Luke Metcalf is an exciting prospect.
My god I hope this dude lives up to the hype he's been getting, but I also hope he doesn't become another Chad Townsend where he looks like a local club player for us before going on to win a premiership with Cronulla.
that says more about our set up than the player when they win elsewhere sadly. But I agree with you, Sharks did aggressively tried to reverse his decision (like they successfully did with Toby Rudolf) but we were able to keep him, but I have only seen highlights and not enough to know if the hype is real. He has speed, so that already sets him apart from Chad lol!
I know its not first grade, but it gives me some hope
@bayimports said in NRL 2023:
@bayimports said in NRL 2023:
Luke Metcalf is an exciting prospect.
My god I hope this dude lives up to the hype he's been getting, but I also hope he doesn't become another Chad Townsend where he looks like a local club player for us before going on to win a premiership with Cronulla.
that says more about our set up than the player when they win elsewhere sadly. But I agree with you, Sharks did aggressively tried to reverse his decision (like they successfully did with Toby Rudolf) but we were able to keep him, but I have only seen highlights and not enough to know if the hype is real. He has speed, so that already sets him apart from Chad lol!
I know its not first grade, but it gives me some hope
Well, I hope for your sake (and his uber fluffers out there) that he lives up to the hype. My natural pessimism with the Warriors means I wont be disappointed if he fails.
As an aside, WTF has happened to NRL prices? Went to grab some tickets to Warriors v Chooks and tickets around the 22m (well 20m I guess) are $70.
@bayimports said in NRL 2023:
@Nepia $70 really? perhaps that's how roosters are keeping all their players under the cap! sounds like pub and tab me
i think we have all earnt the right to pessimism lol
That's not even the centre either, those tickets aren't available to non member plebs.
Going to sit in the corner which is a somewhat more reasonable, but not really $50.
I'm only going to check out the new stadium and so my uber fan Warriors mate will stop bugging me to come to a game early in the season. 
@mariner4life although surprised me how well both teams played without a lot of key players from last year. After watching a lot of rugby of late and then watching this, the head contact was insane
Lets see how well they go if Munster requires an operation on his finger
@bayimports said in NRL 2023:
@mariner4life although surprised me how well both teams played without a lot of key players from last year. After watching a lot of rugby of late and then watching this, the head contact was insane
Lets see how well they go if Munster requires an operation on his finger
Melbourne are Melbourne. Even when they are outplayed they stay in the fight, and wait for a key player to do something great. Losing Munster would be massive though as that is going to add a lot or pressure to Hughes and Grant and the very young Meanie to fill that attacking void.
Jesus big NAS had a big game though, by god did he eat some people.
Parra will be disappointed, they were the better team for probably 65 minutes of the game. But their attack was very scratchy (as you expect in R1) and while their new edge players tackled well, they aren't weapons with the ball yet (oh yeah, and dumb Katoa turnovers i have seen before). And they got real tired for a while and were probably lucky Melbourne didn't make them pay when their defensive line just fell apart. Also i think i hate Cling Gutherson more than any other player in the comp right now. All he did last night was whinge at the ref. Then he stayed down for an eternity hoping for a penalty. Hugely overrated player, all mouth no output.
Warriors start with an unforced error and then SJ missed tackle conceding a try ..normal service resumes.. sigh
Call me a pessimist, but I just switched over from the rugby to have a look at the Warriors.
A really good set out of their own end, get to their last tackle and no one knows what the fuck is going on, and it results in Johnson putting up an absolute shit house bomb.
Have these guys just met?
Have they not trained any last play options?
Groundhog Day.
As I type the Worriers go over in the corner. Well done….
