@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
What we don't want is too much Savea "yards after contact" which look great, but usually just result in slow messy ball.
Telea's carries resulted in a couple of turnovers v France. The forwards expected the target to be 3-4m further back
@booboo said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@MiketheSnow said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@MN5 said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@Rancid-Schnitzel said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@canefan said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@DaGrubster said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
Ok, not desperate then. Highly motivated to prove that they are a better side after being written off all week.
If they can't get up for this one... How many times have we said this about the Fozz blacks only to see them falter? I dare them to prove us wrong
Would be Foster era in a nutshell if we spank Ireland then lose to Wales.
If the ABs get past Ireland ( massive IF there ) I really don’t see Wales or Argentina putting up enough fight to stop them getting into the final.
Your mob were saying the same about England last go round
Which mob? Pretty sure we all saw that as 50/50 at best.
I think it was far more than 50/50 with most feeling pretty confident after the big win against Ireland and the fact that England weren’t playing that great at all.
@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
i think our cleanout issues are a direct result of two things
Our set up, and
our inability to win first contactWe set up flat, don't hit on to the ball, and more often than not the play is a tip on to another forward who is also flat. It means our cleaners aren't arriving to any sort of advantage, which means technique has to be perfect, it doesn't take much being wrong to miss that assignment.
And that flat set up means our guys don't win first contact. Of all guys, Frizzell is the key to getting us on the front foot. He hits the ball at pace at a slight unders angle. A Savea's angle on the breakout against Uruguay was also perfect.What we don't want is too much Savea "yards after contact" which look great, but usually just result in slow messy ball.
If we are wedded to flat flat flat then everyone better not miss their assignments.
....i 100% agree
we dont for a second try and just hit it up to try and draw more defenders disrupt they're formation...every play is with breaking the line in mind
@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
What we don't want is too much Savea "yards after contact" which look great, but usually just result in slow messy ball.
If we are wedded to flat flat flat then everyone better not miss their assignments.
It’s high risk stuff but once we get a slight gap we can more easily exploit it. We need bodies in motion after the initial break.
It’s when the gaps aren’t there that we have lacked a little patience and if guys like Mo’unga and Beaudie are getting stagnant ball when they are flat, we look terrible.
Surprisingly that test against the Boks last year when Mo’unga played deeper out attacking line aligned accordingly and we looked a damn sight better.
@Duluth said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
What we don't want is too much Savea "yards after contact" which look great, but usually just result in slow messy ball.
Telea's carries resulted in a couple of turnovers v France. The forwards expected the target to be 3-4m further back
the danger against Ireland is they are really fucking good at this specific scenario. They'll go the "choke tackle" route, and if the tackled player gets a knee to the ground and the ref calls release, everyone knows what to do. At least one guy will sort of stand and loiter on our side, meaning cleaners have to go through them. One guy will hold on a bit longer to provide the target, but it's the rear most player who releases and then immediately plays at the ball.
You've got to smash that first guy, and that runs an enormous risk of upsetting the refs. Then you'll probably hit the 2nd guy, but he's not the threat, the 3rd guy is, and you are probably already too late.
@mariner4life and refs let people do this! It's so annoying seeing tacklers in front of cleaners, and refs blowing turnover penalties. Not just on us - but we should do this too.
I'm hopeful we're seeing BB in particular nursing himself to this RWC like Carter did in 2015; little physicality for a year or two leading up to it, and then hitting vintage Carter at the tourney.
Hopefully the comments about S+C were spot on too, and we went into the SA game physically damaged. We know how to peak at the right time, just in '07 we were physically dominant in the NPC 
@nzzp said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
and refs let people do this! It's so annoying seeing tacklers in front of cleaners, and refs blowing turnover penalties.
like a lot of things Ireland (and all good teams, but this week it's about Ireland) do, it's right on the edge of legal. But right on the edge is legal if the ref isn't calling it, so do something about it. FFS Sam have a whinge once in a while.
@mariner4life and the numbers they throw around those contact situations at the guys on the fringes of the carrier to impede them just enough that the following Irish defender gets to latch on 1st
Just smart and disciplined.
@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@nzzp said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
and refs let people do this! It's so annoying seeing tacklers in front of cleaners, and refs blowing turnover penalties.
like a lot of things Ireland (and all good teams, but this week it's about Ireland) do, it's right on the edge of legal. But right on the edge is legal if the ref isn't calling it, so do something about it. FFS Sam have a whinge once in a while.
If we are smart enough this game should be won with 3s. Quick pick n go’s to take advantage of offiside loiterers and knock those penalty kicks over every time.
@taniwharugby said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@mariner4life and the numbers they throw around those contact situations at the guys on the fringes of the carrier to impede them just enough that the following Irish defender gets to latch on 1st
yeah, they're disruptive as shit, it's excellent work. Richie was the fucking master at that, do something without looking like you are doing anything.
Our particular arrogance in NZ at the moment seems to be that we plan for how we think rugby should be played, not how it is played.
And yet, somehow, still give up lots of penalties.
And yet for all that i can still a clear path to us winning this weekend. And it won't take much improvement for it to happen.
@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@taniwharugby said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@mariner4life and the numbers they throw around those contact situations at the guys on the fringes of the carrier to impede them just enough that the following Irish defender gets to latch on 1st
yeah, they're disruptive as shit, it's excellent work. Richie was the fucking master at that, do something without looking like you are doing anything.
Our particular arrogance in NZ at the moment seems to be that we plan for how we think rugby should be played, not how it is played.
And yet, somehow, still give up lots of penalties.And yet for all that i can still a clear path to us winning this weekend. And it won't take much improvement for it to happen.
Thats the most frustrating part. Time to put
a complete performance together
If we can:
Not play too much inside our own 40
Chase and contest our kicks every single time
Don't go past the ball on defense
We'll go a long way towards winning this game.
@mariner4life yep, and I think that is the most frustrating part of the past 4 years, and last 15 or so months in particular, the adjustments needed to contest with the likes of France, SA & Ireland are small, but we seem reluctant or incapable of making them.
Your post earlier is in line with my thinking in that I think alot of these issues it seems like a reluctance to play this way as this isnt how we want the game played...
@taniwharugby said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@mariner4life yep, and I think that is the most frustrating part of the past 4 years, and last 15 or so months in particular, the adjustments needed to contest with the likes of France, SA & Ireland are small, but we seem reluctant or incapable of making them.
Your post earlier is in line with my thinking in that I think alot of these issues it seems like a reluctance to play this way as this isnt how we want the game played...
Pride comes before a fall. I don't think this team have heard that one. These ABs are one of the more stupid ABs teams I've seen. We either don't want to read the situation or we can't. We just need to play smarter and be pragmatic
@nostrildamus I'd go with Frizell 6, Cane 7, Savea 8.
Have Blackadder to replace like for like on Cane, Frizell and add too the trio If Savea needed to come off.
Indeed, Weepu, did most certainly not, have this. He was taking and missing kicks in a game we won 8 - 7 with an injured hammy (or other leg injury) that he either a) didn’t tell anyone about or b) told the brains trust about and they continued with this plan.
Can you imagine if we lost that game, the recriminations echoing down the ages about this ‘game management’.
God bless Stephen Donald.
@taniwharugby yeah maybe you're right, for some reason I thought it only came out afterwards and I remember being livid with Henry. What was the deal then - why couldn't Crudes/Dagg kick - were they really too shit? Memory is hazy.
looking back to the last time we played Ireland, we are so much better than we were then
Fullback: J Barrett was okay, B Barrett is frustrating us all. Lets call it even
Wings: Reece/Jordan v Jordan/Telea. This Jordan is better than the 2022 version that was feeling his way back in. Telea is better than Reece. 2023 wins
Centre: Ioane/Ioane even
2nd 5: Havili v JBarrett. A nothing player against a big lump who will get us on the front foot and can throw a dinky little pass. Huge upgrade for 2023
1st 5: BBarrett v Mo'unga. This was the death throws of BB at 10, and while RM is hardly a world beater, he's significantly better than 2022 BB
9: Smith/Smith even
Loose Forwards. Cane/Savea/A Ioane v Cane/Savea/Frizzell 2023 wins this by virtue of Frizzell's current form and the way he plays making the others, particularly Savea, better.
Locks: Retallick/Whitelock v SBarrett/Retallic (assumed) 2023. Retallick wasn't in great form, SBarrett has grown and grown and now plays with the aggression and accuracy we need
Props: Bower/Laulala v actually we don't know yet. This could be even though you could argue that Laulala has improved. If Lomax can play then 2023 is ahead
Hooker: Taylor/Coles v Taylor/ST I give this to 2023 just, as Taylor is playing better, but ST has dropped away a little. It wouldn't shock me to see Coles in the 16 shirt this weekend
Bench: This is telling
Coles, Karl T, Ofa, Vaa'i Paps, Fakatava, Mo'unga, RTS v
Coles/ST, Props, Whitelock, Paps, Roigard, Dmac, ALB
This is a huge improvement. There is genuine impact and experience there. That 2022 bench is so ordinary.
Ireland have the same players playing the same way. We lost that game by 10 points, and this AB side is more than 10 points better than June 2022.
@mariner4life personally for me ST has to be there, he was one of the few forwards that gained any go forward from the previous matches, plus he is not a hot head. Although Coles might have gained ascendancy for whatever reason up the pecking order, he is not someone I would play against a team that thrives on penalties.
@mariner4life
But we had home advantage in the 2022 game.
That is worth some points.
@bayimports said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@mariner4life personally for me ST has to be there, he was one of the few forwards that gained any go forward from the previous matches, plus he is not a hot head. Although Coles might have gained ascendancy for whatever reason up the pecking order, he is not someone I would play against a team that thrives on penalties.
i would pick him. But then i am not a selector
@Frank said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@mariner4life
But we had home advantage in the 2022 game.
That is worth some points.
yep, absolutely. But you cannot deny that this iteration of the ABs is better than than the June 2022 version. Couple of new assistant coaches since then too.
@mariner4life Lots of good stuff in your recent sequence of posts.
I'd done the same analysis of the team the played Ireland in the three tests last time vs the team this time, and we're significantly better - especially on the bench, and especially if Lomax and de Groot play. But - also in the coaches' box!!! I hope Schmidt is bringing lots of insights.
It will be bloody handy if Lomax is fit and firing - but, I've got a nasty feeling he won't quite be. At best, we might see him and de Groot off the bench. Otherwise we're going to be weak at tighthead - starting and bench.
Interestingly, in the first test in that home series, we dominated their scrum - and watching the Jaapies take apart their lineout, gives me plenty to hope on. But, they are fucking well organized and play some beautiful patterns - so it's going to be a massive test for our midfield (and outside backs) - if we pass that defensive test it will go a long way towards winning. If they cut us up, we're fucked.
But, as @Duluth says, we have firepower to hurt them and by lots and quickly.
It's also worth looking a bit at the results in their win streak - a few close-ish calls on the scoreboard vs the Jaapies, Australia, Samoa - and even Italy. Haven't watched many of those games, but they're definitely not invincible. We tend to focus too much on ourselves.
I've got no idea what will happen in this match - I can see it being tight as fuck, or I can see either team winning comfortably - but I've kind of got a hunch that it might be a case of who dares wins.
If we're prepared to throw caution to the wind in terms of the physicality that we bring - and back ourselves to do it without conceding cards, then that might well be the path to victory. In our hey-day, we'd regularly produce those sort of performances, most memorably vs Australia - particularly when we'd lost the first Bledisloe test - and just blow them off the park.
i only need to think back to SA last year. We had come off that Ireland loss. Then we had been as impotent as i had ever seen an AB team.
A week later we fucking pounded the Boks in SA. Pounded them.
@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
If we can:
Not play too much inside our own 40
Chase and contest our kicks every single time
Don't go past the ball on defenseWe'll go a long way towards winning this game.
and learn to play to the refs!
@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
i only need to think back to SA last year. We had come off that Ireland loss. Then we had been as impotent as i had ever seen an AB team.
A week later we fucking pounded the Boks in SA. Pounded them.
Coming off the Ireland loss, we lost again, to Ireland. We did pound the Boks, and I would dearly love to pound the Irish in this match, but we are a fucking lottery at best.
@nostrildamus sadly, the choice of reffing team could have a large impact on this game (and the others) positive and negative for both teams imo.
It shouldn't be the case, but it is.
@Kiwiwomble said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
i think our cleanout issues are a direct result of two things
Our set up, and
our inability to win first contactWe set up flat, don't hit on to the ball, and more often than not the play is a tip on to another forward who is also flat. It means our cleaners aren't arriving to any sort of advantage, which means technique has to be perfect, it doesn't take much being wrong to miss that assignment.
And that flat set up means our guys don't win first contact. Of all guys, Frizzell is the key to getting us on the front foot. He hits the ball at pace at a slight unders angle. A Savea's angle on the breakout against Uruguay was also perfect.What we don't want is too much Savea "yards after contact" which look great, but usually just result in slow messy ball.
If we are wedded to flat flat flat then everyone better not miss their assignments.....i 100% agree
we dont for a second try and just hit it up to try and draw more defenders disrupt they're formation...every play is with breaking the line in mind
It's like playing with that annoying team mate at touch, who loves to jink and run away from support, then he overruns after getting touched, and by the time he backtracks to the mark the momentum is gone. Just do fucken three ups and get the defensive line squeezing in and going backwards first before you try to spin it wide
@mariner4life
We are better.
But I think Ireland might be better too.
@canefan said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@Kiwiwomble said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@mariner4life said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
i think our cleanout issues are a direct result of two things
Our set up, and
our inability to win first contactWe set up flat, don't hit on to the ball, and more often than not the play is a tip on to another forward who is also flat. It means our cleaners aren't arriving to any sort of advantage, which means technique has to be perfect, it doesn't take much being wrong to miss that assignment.
And that flat set up means our guys don't win first contact. Of all guys, Frizzell is the key to getting us on the front foot. He hits the ball at pace at a slight unders angle. A Savea's angle on the breakout against Uruguay was also perfect.What we don't want is too much Savea "yards after contact" which look great, but usually just result in slow messy ball.
If we are wedded to flat flat flat then everyone better not miss their assignments.....i 100% agree
we dont for a second try and just hit it up to try and draw more defenders disrupt they're formation...every play is with breaking the line in mind
It's like playing with that annoying team mate at touch, who loves to jink and run away from support, then he overruns after getting touched, and by the time he backtracks to the mark the momentum is gone. Just do fucken three ups and get the defensive line squeezing in and going backwards first before you try to spin it wide
im sure we were all told growing up "earn the right to go wide"...sure, we've had teams in the past that didnt need to earn it...they could do whatever they liked...this is not one of those teams...and yet were still playing like we are
@taniwharugby said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@nostrildamus sadly, the choice of reffing team could have a large impact on this game (and the others) positive and negative for both teams imo.
It shouldn't be the case, but it is.
When are the refereeing teams for these games announced?
@Unite said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
When are the refereeing teams for these games announced?
Fucked up indictment of the state of the game - that this probably isn't a riff on the Fern running-gag... but is actually a genuine question, with genuine interest/weight to it.
Answer is obviously Jeudi, by the way.
@Kruse said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
@Unite said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
When are the refereeing teams for these games announced?
Fucked up indictment of the state of the game - that this probably isn't a riff on the Fern running-gag... but is actually a genuine question, with genuine interest/weight to it.
Answer is obviously Jeudi, by the way.
No, it was a genuine question...I did Google but can't find anything...
@george33 said in RWC QF: All Blacks v Ireland:
This is the side I'm picking
Beauden,Talea,Reiko,JB, Jordan, Ritchie,Smith, Ardie,Cane, Frizzell,Retallack,S.Barrett,Nepo,Codie,Ofa
Bench De Groot,Lomax(Williams), Whitelock, Papalili, Christie,ALB , McKenzie
They'll have Coles on the bench, as well. 
If Lomax can't play, they'll pick Newell at tighthead- but, I wouldn't mind if you're right. I think Fletch needed to play Super rugby this year to be test-ready.
Only question-marks are how they deploy the props, and I think they'll go the way you suggest - except Newell for Williams on the bench, if Lomax can't play.
