TSF NPC Tipping 2024

@antipodean said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:

The amusing thing is it was an exercise in confirmation bias. It selected the same winners and most of the margins I had already. So we're both inept.

It takes too long to setup properly. If you give Claude the last five years of results, tables and margins and tweak it week by week it can be quite good.

But the main flaw is past results don’t really mean much and it gives way too much weight to them.

Tips better than me, but that is a comically Low bar.

Time to get those tips in everyone https://thesilverfern.com/tipping-submit

All is updated at https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/ including next week's tipping form.

Some big scoring this week with @hydro11 bagging the season's top score of 72 - 7/7 results with 5 margins and both categories picked as well. @Donsteppa did the same but with 4 margin picks and Triple T the same but with just 1 category to score 69 and 67. @Kruse also picked 7/7. The Canterbury win caught the majority of people out and nobody at all had them at 17+. Lowest was @george33 who seems to make a habit of it.

Winger still leads but by only 2 from Donsteppa with Sportboy 10 back followed by Kruse and Hydro11 who is level with Langakali. In the Cup, we're down to the quarter-finals with no replays from the last round.

In the team comp, Wellington won again and look certain for top 4. BOP, HB and South hold the other play-off spots but Counties Waikato and the Bush aren't out of it.

Time to tip everyone - looks like one of the tougher weeks to pick the winners https://thesilverfern.com/tipping-submit/

The results are in https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/

Best of the weekend were Donsteppa, Plastered Peni and myself all with 56 points with 7/7 results and making identical picks. Also 7/7 for Kruse - 4 margin picks for Sportboy, Unite & Dolamite gave them 50+ scores.

Donsteppa has taken over at the top, 15 clear of Winger who only scored 39 and the top 6 are breaking clear of the rest. Worst score was AI Kirwan, picking just 3/7.

Wins for Wellington, Counties-Waikato, BOP & Wairarapa Bush means that it is 4/5 for the play-offs with 1 round to go. Bush, HB & C-W all on 17 points.

Cup semi-finals are Winger v Donsteppa and me v Triple T.

Missing tippers were @bayimports @Tim @ACT-Crusader @Grooter @Landers92

@KiwiPie said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:

The results are in https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/

Best of the weekend were Donsteppa, Plastered Peni and myself all with 56 points with 7/7 results and making identical picks. Also 7/7 for Kruse - 4 margin picks for Sportboy, Unite & Dolamite gave them 50+ scores.

Donsteppa has taken over at the top, 15 clear of Winger who only scored 39 and the top 6 are breaking clear of the rest. Worst score was AI Kirwan, picking just 3/7.

Wins for Wellington, Counties-Waikato, BOP & Wairarapa Bush means that it is 4/5 for the play-offs with 1 round to go. Bush, HB & C-W all on 17 points.

Cup semi-finals are Winger v Donsteppa and me v Triple T.

Missing tippers were @bayimports @Tim @ACT-Crusader @Grooter @Landers92

whoops, given AI made my tips, I also blame it for not submitting

@bayimports said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:

whoops, given AI made my tips, I also blame it for not submitting

We won without you and with Sportboy turning up late - which is not something we should try next week with a semi-final place on the line!

First game is in less than 5 hours - get your tips in for the final round of matches to decide the play-offs.

Think I'll amend my tip to be Ta$man 1-8. I really should read squad announcements before submitting.

Regression to the mean is well underway for my tipping this weekend...

The results are in https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/

It was a tough week for accuracy of picks and nobody picked 7/7. Getting 6/7 were Sportboy, TR, Dan54, Corkscrew, Kirwan & BorderJB. Mikedogz was top scorer on 47 with 3 maximums and Manawatu as low scorers with TR and Bay Imports a point behind. George33 continued his impressive run of low scores with a season's low of 14.

Donsteppa's lead is down to 11 with the unlikely scenario of Sportboy in 2nd place, moving above Winger. BOP has 3 of the top 4 and finish the regular season 2nd behind Wellington who were pipped by Wairarapa Bush who sneak into 4th spot and a repeat game against Wellington in the semi-final. It is the Battle of the Bays in the other semi.

I moved into the final of the Cup beating Triple T in a low scoring game. I will play Donsteppa or Winger - the winner of their replay is the first to move ahead next weekend. 2 legs for the Cup final.

Sorry fellow Bush team - shiiiiiiiiiiiite week for me. But you managed to keep us in it

@Machpants said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:

Sorry fellow Bush team - shiiiiiiiiiiiite week for me. But you managed to keep us in it

Good news for Bush - you were drafted into the Counties Waikato team at the start of the season!

@KiwiPie said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:

@Machpants said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:

Sorry fellow Bush team - shiiiiiiiiiiiite week for me. But you managed to keep us in it

Good news for Bush - you were drafted into the Counties Waikato team at the start of the season!

Oh yeah I forgot, still listed under Bush

Time to tip - penultimate week and then we wait until February 2025 before we get to tip again.

The results are in for the penultimate round of TSF NPC Tipping https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/

A very tough week with only 2 picking Counties to win and 6 picking Harbour - and nobody of course picking the massive routs. Your score was largely dependent on whether you picked Hawke's Bay or Auckland and Otago or Ta$man to win as these were 50/50 splits.

Best of the weekend was Wayne's World with 4 maximums in 5 correct results, the only tipper to pass 40 points. Dolamite the only tipper to pick 6/7 was second best on 39 with M'nch and Stockcar86.

At the top, Donsteppa takes a 12 point lead into the final round with Winger in 2nd and Sportboy 19 points behind in 3rd. Low score was BorderJB with 17.

In the teams comp, the final will be between Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa Bush as the top 2 on the ladder, Wellington and BOP, bombed out. Lowest score for HB was 34, best score for BOP was only 32 so a comprehensive thrashing. Wellington v Bush was closer but the 45 from Waynes World sealed it.

In the Cup, Winger eventually beat Donsteppa in the replay by picking Waikato 17+ - Winger leads me 35-31 after the first leg of the final.

Given it is the last weekend for tipping and I get to put my feet up for 4 months afterwards, I'll try to send some live updates during the weekend.

Going into the final weekend, Donsteppa leads by 12 looking to win his first title outright after sharing it back in 2008 and finishing 3rd in the last 2 seasons. Will the pressure be too much.

2nd is Winger, who won outright in 2012 and shared the title with Bay Imports in 2019.

3rd and 19 off the lead is Sportboy who has never finished in the top 3 in any TSF Tipping competition. I don't believe anyone else can make up the gap to win overall.

The teams final is between Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa Bush. Hawke's Bay are 4 times winners and the reigning champions while Bush are 3 times winners.

Final reminder to get your tips in for NPC 2024. https://thesilverfern.com/tipping-submit/

This first game might be critical with a fairly even split of picks for Northland and Otago. Of the top 4, only Donsteppa picked Northland and the lead is down to just 4 points.

Bush take an early lead in the final

No change in the TSF Cup Final after 10 apiece

Winger has closed the gap to just 2 points after being closer with the margin of the Canterbury win. It all comes down to the Shield challenge, Winger has Taranaki winning it and if that happens then Winger is champion.

Nicely done to @Winger. I knew Northland was a risky one, but I thought Ta$man might have valued the Shield, rather than rolling over

@Donsteppa said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:

Nicely done to @Winger. I knew Northland was a risky one, but I thought Ta$man might have valued the Shield, rather than rolling over

Don't give up hope. Every team I've picked to win this weekend has instantly gone 20 points down and I'm 3/5.

@KiwiPie said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:

@Donsteppa said in TSF NPC Tipping 2024:

Nicely done to @Winger. I knew Northland was a risky one, but I thought Ta$man might have valued the Shield, rather than rolling over

Don't give up hope. Every team I've picked to win this weekend has instantly gone 20 points down and I'm 3/5.

The first 50 minutes of the weekend were great, until Northland got intercepted

Confirmed congrats to @Winger

It's all over and the results are at https://thesilverfern.com/tipping/

Congratulation to @Winger running down @Donsteppa in the final week and clinching the title when Taranaki took the Ranfurly Shield. 3rd place to @sportboy after years of comical underachievement, that's a great performance.

Best of the weekend was @Dan54 with 50 points, 6/7 and Waikato as lowest scorers. Winger, @Paj and @Landers92 scored 49, the latter with 7/7 which means 1 of only 3 to pick Southland to win.

Hawke's Bay took out the teams title with a narrow 34-33 win over Wairarapa Bush. Indebted to Paj for the outstanding score and to @Stockcar86 who mysteriously picked Southland as top scorers. As he picked Counties for low scorers, then I presume he got them the wrong way round and without that cunning plan, Bush would have won.

Winger did the league and cup double, thrashing me 84-68 over 2 weekends.

Thanks @KiwiPie . Sometimes it really is better to be stupid and lucky, than be good

Add my thanks @KiwiPie , I still can't get over it I have never really got into picking comps, but seem to enjoy these ones.
Could be a good rugby site combined with a well run comp!!!

Finally for the season, a review of the history of NPC Tipping. The winners have been

2006 Brakdov
2008 Donsteppa/KP/Higgins
2009 TR
2010 Bay Imports
2011 TR
2012 Winger
2013 Propsicle
2014 Cactus Jack
2015 Higgins
2016 Joan and Mary
2018 Langakali
2019 Bay Imports/Winger
2020 Dice
2021 Higgins/Plastered Peni
2022 Crucial
2023 Bay Imports
2024 Winger

3 titles each for Winger, Higgins and Bay Imports. 2 for TR.

2006 Valley
2008 Northland
2009 Waikato
2010 Hawke's Bay
2011 Hawke's Bay
2012 BOP
2013 Hawke's Bay
2014 Wellington
2015 Wairarapa Bush
2016 Wairarapa Bush
2018 Northland
2019 Wairarapa Bush
2020 Northland
2021 Counties-Waikato
2022 Harbour-Auckland
2023 Hawke's Bay
2024 Hawke's Bay

5 titles for Hawke's Bay, 3 for Wairarapa Bush and Northland.