AB Blindside - past, present & future

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I'd argue that numbers matter most at scrum time. 7 rather speaks for itself. 6 must be rock solid on blindside defence (an area where Vaa'i was exposed). 8 needs to be able to operate behind retreating scrum and needs strong impetus.

Regarding lineout, to me one loosie needs to be elite, but doesnt't matter if it's 6 or 8.

For me, at top level Jacobson, RD and Lakai are 7s.

Leading contenders for 6 are probably Flanders, Finau and Parker (for heft).

That leaves 8 a bit up in air. With Finau at 6, lineout covered, which opens things up for a Sititi. But if the 6 isn't a lineout banker, then 8 needs to be. Sotutu would have been very handy to have in squad.

Everything comes back to the scrum with you, eh?

Ha!

I’d agree in principle but teams don’t seem to take those different loose forward roles into much account these days. Did you see Fainga’anuku pack down at 8 against the Reds on the weekend? Poor guy didn’t have a clue what he was doing.

I also saw Lee packing down at blindside against Moana while wearing 7, with Blackadder on the openside despite wearing 6. The Blues loose forwards have also regularly switched where they bind at the scrum throughout the game, depending on the in-game situation. So a lot of it is very pragmatic, with different loose forwards fulfilling different roles, whether it’s at the scrum or around the field.

I should have said that it's defensive scrums where the specialist roles are most prevalent. On attacking scrums I can easily imagine situations where the play being called might suit the blindside to pack at openside.

As for the lineout, I do think its preferable to have 4 genuine options in the back five at Test level. Having both Finau and Flanders in the loose forward trio would be useful in this regard but both of them are at their best out wide. If you add Savea to this, then you’re asking a whole lot (too much, I think) of your tight five in terms of the carry and clean through the middle.

You raise an issue with Savea himself. He's not a cleaner, so if he plays 7 you need solid ruck hitting loosies, such as Cane and Frizell. Which is why I'd actually pick RD on bench.

So, with Rennie, I think it’s going to be either Finau or Flanders at blindside and Savea most likely at openside.
Number 8 is probably, like you say, the most difficult position to fill. Another lineout option, who is a high-volume carrier while preferably having a high work rate at the breakdown as well. I don’t really see anyone who fits that profile across the SRP teams right now.

It may be part of Chiefs thinking that, with Finau at 6, a cleaning loosie like Parker provides balance at 8.

Where is Kieran Read when you need him? I was trying to find some stats on Read’s carrying numbers and came across this from 2020, when they selected the NZ SR team of the decade. “Kieran Read gets the nod at No.8 having gained the most metres (3,131) from the most carries (892) of any No.8 and was also one of only two such players to make 800+ tackles.” (link: https://super.rugby/superrugby/news/nz-super-rugby-team-of-the-decade/) This while also being one of the best lineout forwards of his generation. Pretty useful player and it's really no wonder the ABs didn't have to worry about loose forward balance for so long when he was around.

Absolutely. I think Luatua could have had the skills to follow Read, but we screwed up the succession, which led to RD being shoehorned into 8.

The most intriguing option right now, I think, is if Sititi can regain some of his 2024 form. During that SRP season, the Chiefs number 8 averaged 15.8 carries, 15.8 tackles (87% success), 3.3 defenders beaten, 1.3 lineouts won, and 51.4 post-contact metres per 80 minutes. According to Opta’s 2024 Stats Hub, he had a dominant carry percentage of 54.7%, reaching the gainline at 64.9% of the time and evading tacklers for 19.9% of his carries. On attack, he cleaned around 12 rucks per game at 87% effectiveness, while attending around 5 defensive rucks per game as well. Statistically, I still think it’s one of the better No. 8 seasons that we’ve seen recently.

Unfortunately, he’s fallen off since then, due to injury issues and an inability to quickly regain form. 2024 might’ve been a blip for Sititi, both at SR and at Test level, as he wasn’t able to reach the same standard in 2025. Still, a fit and firing Sititi would be a great option for the ABs to have in 2026.

Agree that a fit Sititi should be in squad. But, from the perspective of balance, to me RD and Sititi are too similar to start together. However, Paps/Jacobson/Lakai at 7, Finau at 6 and Wally 8 would have attractions.

said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I was trying to find some stats on Read’s carrying numbers and came across this from 2020, when they selected the NZ SR team of the decade. “Kieran Read gets the nod at No.8 having gained the most metres (3,131) from the most carries (892) of any No.8 and was also one of only two such players to make 800+ tackles.”

Just a few more quick thoughts on the No. 8 position, based on this SR metric with Kieran Read (apologies for the self-quote). I’ve quickly gathered the different NZ-born eights in SRP, based on their volume of carrying (CPM) and tackling (TPM) per minute. I’m calling it the Kieran Read Index (TM pending).

What the graph shows, in my view, is that high-volume carriers aren’t really valued within NZ SRP teams. The two highest-volume carriers – Tupou-Ta’eiloa and Ekuasi – play for non-NZ teams, while the third one, Sotutu, is leaving after this season.

The Kieran Read Index: how many carries and tackles do the players get through on a per minute basis?

What you get instead are a bunch of loose forward hybrids: players who can play 6, 7 or 8, without really having those qualities which we associate with one of the greatest No. 8s in history, Kieran Read, namely to get through a bunch of work on attack and defence. The players who do seem to be rather typical 8s have their own issues, whether it’s a lack of size (Lio-Willie) or a lack of experience (Wrampling-Alec).

This NZ SRP sentiment of a lack of appreciation for high-volume carrying is further emphasized if we take a look at a bunch of (semi-)eligible No. 8s from overseas. Players like Fletcher Anderson, Sean Jansen, So’otala Fa’aso’o, Ethan Roots and Abraham Papali’i are some of the foremost carrying options in European rugby right now, yet none of them even sniffed regular game time at SR level.

The high-volume carriers/tacklers lost to NZ Rugby

Others, like Mikaele-Tu’u and Hemopo also play like your typical number eights in Japan, yet were never really considered for that role for the ABs. The same is of course true for Akira Ioane – whose stats aren’t available on RugbyPass due to him playing in Japanese 2nd division rugby – but who is perhaps the most famous example of a player whose in-tight carrying wasn’t valued enough at Test rugby level (I've added his 2024 SRP averages to the graph).

Meanwhile, NZ’s loss is other countries’ gain: Sean Jansen looks set to get a cap for Ireland in the near future and fans in Wales are already clamouring for Fletcher Anderson’s Test selection in 4 years’ time.

Questions can of course be asked of the quality of those players as well as the competitions in which they play. But my point isn’t that they would necessarily be good enough for the ABs, but more so that the limits of an SRP competition with limited places as well as selection identities are once again exposed here. The ways an All Black team can play are becoming restricted due to the fact that too many NZ SRP teams are playing and selecting too similarly. Even if the ABs wanted a high-volume carrier and tackler at number 8, he most likely wouldn’t be available to them and the depth would be non-existent.

The attentive reader might’ve noticed that I’ve left out one name, Wallace Sititi. Sititi has only played 60 minutes of SRP rugby this season, so putting him in this graph wouldn’t be representative. Still, his carrying volume is at the moment unmatched. On the weekend against the Hurricanes, he had 9 carries in just the 32 minutes on the field. I’ve added both his current averages as well as his 2024 numbers to the graph above, just to give an indication. As you can see, if Rennie wants a high-volume carrier at No. 8, there’s really not a lot of competition.

Leading the pack: Sititi’s current carrying averages will undoubtedly go down with more game time but if he could get back to his 2024 averages of 0.2 carries and 0.2 tackles per minute, he would comfortably stand out in the Kieran Read Index

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

The two highest-volume carriers – Tupou-Ta’eiloa and Ekuasi – play for non-NZ teams

Looked like Ekuasi had a target on him on the weekend; saders were well aware of his stats.
Seemed to be an assignment on him by the saders D at every breakdown.
Sititi probably get the same treament when he plays a full game.

@mauss it would be interesting to see how particularly Harry Wilson but also Valetini looked on that index - as other quality loosies that we get to see regularly.

Is Tupou-Ta'eiloa not NZ qualified?

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Is Tupou-Ta'eiloa not NZ qualified?

Semisi? Moana list him as born in Mangere but nationality as Tongan!

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I'd argue that numbers matter most at scrum time. 7 rather speaks for itself. 6 must be rock solid on blindside defence (an area where Vaa'i was exposed). 8 needs to be able to operate behind retreating scrum and needs strong impetus.

Regarding lineout, to me one loosie needs to be elite, but doesnt't matter if it's 6 or 8.

For me, at top level Jacobson, RD and Lakai are 7s.

Leading contenders for 6 are probably Flanders, Finau and Parker (for heft).

That leaves 8 a bit up in air. With Finau at 6, lineout covered, which opens things up for a Sititi. But if the 6 isn't a lineout banker, then 8 needs to be. Sotutu would have been very handy to have in squad.

Everything comes back to the scrum with you, eh?

Ha!

I’d agree in principle but teams don’t seem to take those different loose forward roles into much account these days. Did you see Fainga’anuku pack down at 8 against the Reds on the weekend? Poor guy didn’t have a clue what he was doing.

I also saw Lee packing down at blindside against Moana while wearing 7, with Blackadder on the openside despite wearing 6. The Blues loose forwards have also regularly switched where they bind at the scrum throughout the game, depending on the in-game situation. So a lot of it is very pragmatic, with different loose forwards fulfilling different roles, whether it’s at the scrum or around the field.

I should have said that it's defensive scrums where the specialist roles are most prevalent. On attacking scrums I can easily imagine situations where the play being called might suit the blindside to pack at openside.

As for the lineout, I do think its preferable to have 4 genuine options in the back five at Test level. Having both Finau and Flanders in the loose forward trio would be useful in this regard but both of them are at their best out wide. If you add Savea to this, then you’re asking a whole lot (too much, I think) of your tight five in terms of the carry and clean through the middle.

You raise an issue with Savea himself. He's not a cleaner, so if he plays 7 you need solid ruck hitting loosies, such as Cane and Frizell. Which is why I'd actually pick RD on bench.

So, with Rennie, I think it’s going to be either Finau or Flanders at blindside and Savea most likely at openside.
Number 8 is probably, like you say, the most difficult position to fill. Another lineout option, who is a high-volume carrier while preferably having a high work rate at the breakdown as well. I don’t really see anyone who fits that profile across the SRP teams right now.

It may be part of Chiefs thinking that, with Finau at 6, a cleaning loosie like Parker provides balance at 8.

Where is Kieran Read when you need him? I was trying to find some stats on Read’s carrying numbers and came across this from 2020, when they selected the NZ SR team of the decade. “Kieran Read gets the nod at No.8 having gained the most metres (3,131) from the most carries (892) of any No.8 and was also one of only two such players to make 800+ tackles.” (link: https://super.rugby/superrugby/news/nz-super-rugby-team-of-the-decade/) This while also being one of the best lineout forwards of his generation. Pretty useful player and it's really no wonder the ABs didn't have to worry about loose forward balance for so long when he was around.

Absolutely. I think Luatua could have had the skills to follow Read, but we screwed up the succession, which led to RD being shoehorned into 8.

The most intriguing option right now, I think, is if Sititi can regain some of his 2024 form. During that SRP season, the Chiefs number 8 averaged 15.8 carries, 15.8 tackles (87% success), 3.3 defenders beaten, 1.3 lineouts won, and 51.4 post-contact metres per 80 minutes. According to Opta’s 2024 Stats Hub, he had a dominant carry percentage of 54.7%, reaching the gainline at 64.9% of the time and evading tacklers for 19.9% of his carries. On attack, he cleaned around 12 rucks per game at 87% effectiveness, while attending around 5 defensive rucks per game as well. Statistically, I still think it’s one of the better No. 8 seasons that we’ve seen recently.

Unfortunately, he’s fallen off since then, due to injury issues and an inability to quickly regain form. 2024 might’ve been a blip for Sititi, both at SR and at Test level, as he wasn’t able to reach the same standard in 2025. Still, a fit and firing Sititi would be a great option for the ABs to have in 2026.

Agree that a fit Sititi should be in squad. But, from the perspective of balance, to me RD and Sititi are too similar to start together. However, Paps/Jacobson/Lakai at 7, Finau at 6 and Wally 8 would have attractions.

From memory Finau was the most accurate cleaner on attacking rucks in SRP last year

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Is Tupou-Ta'eiloa not NZ qualified?

Yeah he is.

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

it would be interesting to see how particularly Harry Wilson but also Valetini looked on that index - as other quality loosies that we get to see regularly.

Valetini was Rennie's first-choice No. 8 as Wallabies head coach. He's leading the comp in total carries this year (with 132, 22 more than the next one). Wilson is having a bit of a down year in terms of carrying at 'just' 0.14 cpm. When he led the comp in total carries in 2023 (211), he was carrying at a rate of 0.19 cpm.

The same graph from the post above, but with Wilson, Cale, Valetini, Samu, Tualima and Canakaivata included

What does become clear is, again, that high-volume carriers are mostly found at non-NZ SRP teams. There are four loose forwards amongst the top 10 carriers - Valetini, Ekuasi, Canakaivata, and Tupou-Ta'eiloa - but obviously none of them play for the 5 Kiwi teams.

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Is Tupou-Ta'eiloa not NZ qualified?

He is. Like mentioned above, he's born in New Zealand. It will mostly depend on where he'll sign when/if Moana go under.

I like him as a player. But it's clear that NZ Rugby is a lot more ambiguous in their evaluation of him. I'm not sure it's got a lot to do with playing ability. I watched him play on that U19s tour to South Africa in 2022 and he absolutely tore through those teams.

They weren't the best South African sides granted, but it was a clear indication of what the player's strengths were. High-volume carriers are not as common as one might think in NZ Rugby. Still, he wasn't even selected for the NZ U20s in 2023, mostly due, or so I believe, to off-field issues.

He got suspended from the Highlanders U20s during the 2023 SR tournament due to drunk driving. I'm pretty sure those issues played a considerable role in Tupou-Ta'eiloa eventually ending up with Moana as well. It's also clear that he hasn't gotten those off-field issues completely under control either, with disciplinary problems resurfacing during his time with the Stags in 2025.

So a pretty interesting case: a player of undeniable talent who provides something that NZ SRP teams need. But he comes with some baggage as well. If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say he ends up in the Top 14.

@Mauss Thanks mate, thought provoking stuff. Particularly when you look at how the Aussies have been really quite effective against South Africa, relative to us (considering overall strength).

Sadly there are alot of aspects of our game that have fallen off in the past almost decade now.

Hopefully Rennie and co and take a back to basics approach, while looking to allow the likes of Love, Tangitau, Clarke, Tupaea et al to do what they do best rather than alter thier play to suit a style that doesnt work.

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Is Tupou-Ta'eiloa not NZ qualified?

He is. Like mentioned above, he's born in New Zealand. It will mostly depend on where he'll sign when/if Moana go under.

I like him as a player. But it's clear that NZ Rugby is a lot more ambiguous in their evaluation of him. I'm not sure it's got a lot to do with playing ability. I watched him play on that U19s tour to South Africa in 2022 and he absolutely tore through those teams.

View embedded content

Tupou-Ta'eiloa physically dominating the WP U19s

They weren't the best South African sides granted, but it was a clear indication of what the player's strengths were. High-volume carriers are not as common as one might think in NZ Rugby. Still, he wasn't even selected for the NZ U20s in 2023, mostly due, or so I believe, to off-field issues.

View embedded content

He got suspended from the Highlanders U20s during the 2023 SR tournament due to drunk driving. I'm pretty sure those issues played a considerable role in Tupou-Ta'eiloa eventually ending up with Moana as well. It's also clear that he hasn't gotten those off-field issues completely under control either, with disciplinary problems resurfacing during his time with the Stags in 2025.

View embedded content

So a pretty interesting case: a player of undeniable talent who provides something that NZ SRP teams need. But he comes with some baggage as well. If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say he ends up in the Top 14.

Hope not. I know we can't compete with the euro, but surely we can spring for a taxi.

@Mauss one of Rugby Pass five players of round: https://www.rugbypass.com/news/the-five-performers-of-the-week-from-super-rugby-pacific-round-ten/?xnpe_tifc=4D1pb.ULbD1DxDs_bdY8OMpsafeWaeiWhFWcbfHjxIs1b9QWa9QsVu8sEG8.adJSOfnZxuh_xuQuxFBLbd4Lh1TT&utm_source=rugbypass&utm_campaign=RugbyPass_Newsletter_AU/NZ/US_20042026_RP_Opt-ins_Engaged&utm_medium=email
Has upped his tackle count.
The leading power 8: he'd be in my squad.

Maybe someone like him would work for the loose forward balance, be nice to have a big hard running, hard tackling No8.

@pakman geez, decent workload and doesn't exactly look like he's in tip top shape.

@Bones Dave Rennie to add the conditioning and polish?

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Bones Dave Rennie to add the conditioning and polish?

Be interesting to see Failagi's stats alongside him. Feels like Failagi started the season with a bang and has become less prominent as STT has shone more and more - is MF doing the work to allow him to flourish?

@Bones Fair point.

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Is Tupou-Ta'eiloa not NZ qualified?

He is. Like mentioned above, he's born in New Zealand. It will mostly depend on where he'll sign when/if Moana go under.

I like him as a player. But it's clear that NZ Rugby is a lot more ambiguous in their evaluation of him. I'm not sure it's got a lot to do with playing ability. I watched him play on that U19s tour to South Africa in 2022 and he absolutely tore through those teams.

View embedded content

Tupou-Ta'eiloa physically dominating the WP U19s

They weren't the best South African sides granted, but it was a clear indication of what the player's strengths were. High-volume carriers are not as common as one might think in NZ Rugby. Still, he wasn't even selected for the NZ U20s in 2023, mostly due, or so I believe, to off-field issues.

View embedded content

He got suspended from the Highlanders U20s during the 2023 SR tournament due to drunk driving. I'm pretty sure those issues played a considerable role in Tupou-Ta'eiloa eventually ending up with Moana as well. It's also clear that he hasn't gotten those off-field issues completely under control either, with disciplinary problems resurfacing during his time with the Stags in 2025.

View embedded content

So a pretty interesting case: a player of undeniable talent who provides something that NZ SRP teams need. But he comes with some baggage as well. If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say he ends up in the Top 14.

You appear to be very well informed. Seems to be crying out for someone to mentor him.