Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA

Yeah first half hour or so will be crucial. Batters will be readjusting to today's conditions, and any nerves will be the highest at the start of the innings. Once they get through a few overs all that will ease.

That said, this is an epic choke if South Africa lose from here. As a stats nerd, I have a formula for the 'life' left in a chase, which is runs remaining divided by wickets remaining minus two. If that's 10 or less, then it's game over. More than that the batting team might be the favourites, but the bowling team have a chance. Right now it's 11.5, but 9 more runs gets it below 10.

Oh man that potentially sets up the juiciest final day. The cricketing worlds biggest chokers have given themselves a chance at the biggest choke in their history to really cement that legacy. If there has been rain overnight then conditions will be more bowler friendly in the first session,. and if there's any bowling lineup in history that could pull this off, it's these bastards. An early wicket or two and she's going to be all on, I hope Aus have been practicing their choke sledges.

@No-Quarter said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:

Oh man that potentially sets up the juiciest final day. The cricketing world’s biggest chokers have given themselves a chance at the biggest choke in their history to really cement that legacy. If there has been rain overnight then conditions will be more bowler friendly in the first session,. and if there's any bowling lineup in history that could pull this off, it's these bastards. An early wicket or two and she's going to be all on, I hope Aus have been practicing their choke sledges.

Outstanding summary.

It just takes one of that Aussie bowling line up to get their tails up for shit to get really interesting.

SA huge favourites from here on in though.

TAB has SA at $1.01
Oz at $19

Dennis Lillee would take a punt!

Best UK odds are 20-1 for Oz which is about right. Starc, Hazelwood and Cummins are more than capable of running through them this morning, but SA are the firm favourite. 69 runs is not much to chase on a 4th day pitch with 8 wickets in hand.

@sparky said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:

Best UK odds are 20-1 for Oz which is about right. Starc, Hazelwood and Cummins are more than capable of running through them this morning, but SA are the firm favourite. 69 runs is not much to chase on a 4th day pitch with 8 wickets in hand.

You're forgetting Lyon, 3rd highest wicket taker in Australian history.

Starc 4th, Cummins 8th and Hazelwood 10th. That's some pedigree all in the same team at the same time.

@MN5 No, the pitch wasn't taking much spin yesterday. I thought if anything Australia over bowled Nathan Lyons yesterday.

On the Lords slope, trust your quicks down the slope. Use the slower bowler up the slope, but don't have gaps in the field.

@sparky said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:

@MN5 No, the pitch wasn't taking much spin yesterday. I thought if anything Australia over bowled Nathan Lyons yesterday.

On the Lords slope, trust your quicks down the slope. Use the slower bowler up the slope, but don't have gaps in the field.

Fair enough.

I note Cameron Green hasn't bowled a single over this test.

Is he already a Ben Stokes type all rounder, ie one who doesn't bowl ?

Three hours to the start of Day Four, but recent cloud cover this morning in North London. It'll swing and seam I reckon.

@sparky said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:

Three hours to the start of Day Four, but recent cloud cover this morning in North London. It'll swing and seam I reckon.

You have to love modern test cricket and the fact we're 100% sure of a result in this one.

If you look at the five wicket hauls at Lord's since the late 1970s they've been overwhelming by medium fast bowlers or quick bowlers rather than spinners.

None of Warne, Muralitharan or Lyon achieved five-wickets in a Test innings at Lords.

I did wonder if the Oz tail wagging last night was a sign of good batting conditions.

Rather be in SA's shoes based on the scorecard, but an early wicket plus cloud cover could get interesting.

No cloud, but Cummins gets slight away movement to edge out Bavuma.

Cummins gets an early wicket, but the weather conditions are improving dramatically and SA only need 55 runs now.

Hazelwood really accurate this morning and bowling maiden after maiden, but no wicket yet.

Australia reviewing an on-field no LBW decision. Looks speculative.

@sparky said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:

Australia reviewing an on-field no LBW decision. Looks speculative.

Missing by a ball and a bit. A poor decision to burn a review on that one.

Markham looking very comfortable. A great batting performance.

50 runs needed. RSA in pole position. Definitely their game to lose now.

Stick a fork in them, they're done. Desperation review is always a sign that a team knows they're cooked.

Australia bringing Nathan Lyon on. Probably their last throw of the dice.

Lyon getting a bit more turn than yesterday. Australia bowling well, but not enough runs to defend with any confidence. RSA scoring slowly and nervously though.

Aussies just burned another review

@canefan said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:

Aussies just burned another review

To be fair, that one looked close.

Stubbs out. RSA four down. They need 41 runs.

And then Starc cracks it next ball

All too late, but at least semi respectable

@NTA said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:

And then Starc cracks it next ball

All too late, but at least semi respectable

Not sure, if the Aussies can get Markram out (and it looks a big if given how he is batting) then South Africa's demons and the new ball will come into play.

Gem of a ball by Starc to the new batsman.

Slow progress for South Africa this morning. Australia have played better in this first hour.

KP really is hard listening

Another desperate review

Going over IMHO

Didn't even get that far

South Africa not comfortable this morning but not collapsing either.

@NTA said in Cricket: WTC Final Oz vs SA:

KP really is hard listening

Hayden is worse

@NTA You know why he was called FIGJAM by his own team-mates?

Markram is in imperious batting form.

South Africa only need 25 runs. Nearly there.

Confidence flowing through the South Africans now. History beckons. 19 to win.

Not sure they will bother with the lunch break.

Appeal for a catch?