2025 All Blacks v France series

Thought Love looked really good at fullback and would like to see him persisted with there in the first team, with Jordan on the right wing (and probably Caleb Clarke on the left, if everyone's available). There aren't any dud games this year with no trip to Japan and I don't think Love has quite done enough at 10 for the Canes yet to justify his selection there for the All Blacks against top opposition. Let Love play 10 for the Hurricanes regularly next year then shift him there for NZ if he steps up.

Also think Hotham did enough with his time on the field to justify a few more games off the bench behind Roigard. Still not sure Hotham has the passing game to be an international halfback but we haven't exactly seen the goods from Ratima lately either.

Lienert-Brown's defence is very underrated. He got his timing wrong once or twice in this Test but also hasn't played for a little while, so his judgement will be slightly off. Happy to stick with Proctor in the first team but would also like to see Lienert-Brown get some good minutes at 13 throughout the TRC.

First-choice backline for me:
Roigard, Barrett (prefer McKenzie but resigned to the fact that Razor loves Barrett), Clarke, Barrett, Proctor, Jordan, Love. Reserves: Hotham, McKenzie, Tupaea/Ioane.

@KiwiMurph said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

@antipodean said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

You want to see how players go when substituted in with considerable first choice experience around them.

You could argue they did do that if you look at Holland at lock, Proctor at 13, Vaai at 6 and Lio Willie at 8.

I would argue that's a post facto justification and a pretty poor one.

Holland starting was admittedly a big call that would be covered by Vaai moving back to lock and Finau coming into blindside if it didn't work. It did and there's very little jeopardy in keeping him there for the series.

Proctor had to be given time at 13. Again, the big surprise is they gave him another chance. Then removed an opportunity to let him continue to improve and cement himself.

Lio-Willie proved to be an adequate stopgap.

Then there's the rest of the squad...

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

Holland looks like the find of the series, he has the size, has the tools, and will only get better. As they were explaining on the rugby pod, the best thing is that his play suits a player like Patty T perfectly, so PT could put his focus on ball running a bit more as Holland was doing heaps of cleaning.

The pod were also talking up Kirifi - apparently very very high for cleaning, and they were making a similar argument that his work at the ruck was helping save Finau's legs so that he could also get the most out of his running game. Apparently, he had 80% gainline and of those 90% were 'super' fast ball.

I posted this table in the Blues thread when talking about Papali’i but it applies pretty well here too, so I’ll post it again.

While you could spin it in a positive way, I suppose, Holland looked like he was already digging deep into his reserves quite early in the game. It was impressive how he kept finding energy to get up and clean, again and again, but the coaches should really manage his workload or I suspect he’ll burn out somewhere during the Rugby Championship. Tuipulotu didn't look right at all, to me. I wouldn't be surprised if he was playing through an injury.

Kirifi really came to life at the breakdown in the second half but he was struggling to impose himself during the first. It was noticeable how his timing at the attacking ruck was off, which meant that he would struggle to shift the bigger French bodies.

To me, Finau looks and plays more like a number 8. Strong carrier of the ball, great offensive instincts and vision, broad skillset both in the lineout and in open play. He’s like what Scott Robertson hoped that Cullen Grace would be but then without being folded every time he carries the ball up from kick return while also being a much better defender.

That being said, I would've liked to have seen Finau at 6 alongside Savea and Lio-Willie. I think that's more balanced than Kirifi and Savea.

@Mauss

Did you watch / hear the rugbypod?

They provided slightly different data to yours and focused on first or second to the breakdown for Holland and Kirifi. I'm interested in how it stacks up against the stuff you presented.

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

@Mauss

Did you watch / hear the rugbypod?

They provided slightly different data to yours and focused on first or second to the breakdown for Holland and Kirifi. I'm interested in how it stacks up against the stuff you presented.

No, I haven't, I'll take a listen. My numbers for the attacking ruck arrivals are very rudimentary: I just look at each breakdown and take note of who the cleaners are. It doesn't take into account the quality of the clean (although I do sometimes write down when the clean was poor) or who arrives first.

Speaking of stats, there's certainly value in looking at things yourself. I was just looking at some numbers from the U20 World Cup and comparing the stats from RugbyPass (I think they use Opta?) and the SA Rugby match centre (they use a service called 'Stratus', which I haven't heard of).

These are the numbers given by both for the metres carried for the NZ U20 back five in the U20 World Cup final against South Africa.

Perhaps they use different criteria - total metres vs. post-contact perhaps? - but it still makes very little sense that someone like Woodley has carried the ball for either 8 or 82 metres (I'd have no idea how Woodley would've gotten 74 pre-contact metres so it doesn't make a lot of sense, either way).

All of this just to say, rugby statistics still have some way to go and it's probably best to look at things yourself if you really want to make your mind up.

@Mauss said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

View image

@Mauss said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

My numbers for the attacking ruck arrivals are very rudimentary: I just look at each breakdown and take note of who the cleaners are. It doesn't take into account the quality of the clean (although I do sometimes write down when the clean was poor) or who arrives first.

Here's the opta numbers for the full match if you're interested:

Carry metres are quite different?

Any other opta numbers you want me to post?

@Duluth These numbers rather support my belief that Papalii offers more than Kirifi.

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

'super' fast ball.

Which is better?

SQB or ultra quick ball?

Are both SQB and UQB quicker than very quick ball?

And is just plain or garden variety quick ball a relic from the 4 point try days?

@booboo said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

'super' fast ball.

Which is better?

SQB or ultra quick ball?

Are both SQB and UQB quicker than very quick ball?

And is just plain or garden variety quick ball a relic from the 4 point try days?

Just don't let Marshall call the ball a nut in this instance.

@Duluth said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

@Mauss said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

View image

@Mauss said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

My numbers for the attacking ruck arrivals are very rudimentary: I just look at each breakdown and take note of who the cleaners are. It doesn't take into account the quality of the clean (although I do sometimes write down when the clean was poor) or who arrives first.

Here's the opta numbers for the full match if you're interested:

	Attacking Ruck Arrival	Carries/Carry Metres	Linebreaks/Defenders beaten
Holland	44	14/56m	0/1
Tuipulotu	23	16/61m	0/0
Finau (65mins)	16	15/82m	0/1
Kirifi	39	10/43m	1/2
Savea	23	21/132m	0/6
-	-	-	-
Papali'i (15mins)	11	4/30m	0/1

Carry metres are quite different?

Any other opta numbers you want me to post?

These look like the stats they showed, they also had first or second to the breakdown (if you happen to have it?).

For ruck speed do they connect that with the carrier - that was the secondary argument for Finau’s carrying (theirs, not mine). They said he had 80% gainline and of those 90% were super/ultra fast ball. Is it easy to see if that is provided? This was the core of Gipper’s argument.

The argument (theirs, not mine) is that these loose forwards and locks achieved balance via different guys focusing on different roles.

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

they also had first or second to the breakdown (if you happen to have it?).

Nope

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

For ruck speed do they connect that with the carrier - that was the secondary argument for Finau’s carrying (theirs, not mine). They said he had 80% gainline and of those 90% were super/ultra fast ball. Is it easy to see if that is provided? This was the core of Gipper’s argument.

I have ruck speed stats for the team but not linked to the individual:

NZ is the first column

As for gainline %age. It can be worked out from crossed the gainline/runs:

Crossed the gainline:

Runs:

@Duluth further evidence Jordan at centre is the smart move.

That definitely makes Finau’s effort look impressive. Seems like it allowed Ardie to do his thing too.

I’m not quite convinced about the argument for Kirifi yet but perhaps his speed is a strength there?

@Duluth said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

Carry metres are quite different?

I used the RugbyPass stats for carry metres. It does look like they use post-contact numbers, as opposed to just metres made with ball in hand.

As far as attacking rucks are concerned, I think the numbers are pretty much the same. The numbers in my table are the attacking ruck involvements for the starting back 5 for only the first 65 minutes of the game. I could see Holland and Kirifi getting another 10 to 13 involvements in the final 15 minutes, as the ABs had all the possession and built a lot of rucks in that time.

I only used the first 65 minutes because wanted to get a snapshot of everyone's involvement at the breakdown while they were on the field at the same time, and Finau got subbed at 65 minutes.

Kirifi's gainline % in that last game was Blackadder low.

@Mauss said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

@Mauss

Did you watch / hear the rugbypod?

They provided slightly different data to yours and focused on first or second to the breakdown for Holland and Kirifi. I'm interested in how it stacks up against the stuff you presented.

No, I haven't, I'll take a listen. My numbers for the attacking ruck arrivals are very rudimentary: I just look at each breakdown and take note of who the cleaners are. It doesn't take into account the quality of the clean (although I do sometimes write down when the clean was poor) or who arrives first.

Speaking of stats, there's certainly value in looking at things yourself. I was just looking at some numbers from the U20 World Cup and comparing the stats from RugbyPass (I think they use Opta?) and the SA Rugby match centre (they use a service called 'Stratus', which I haven't heard of).

These are the numbers given by both for the metres carried for the NZ U20 back five in the U20 World Cup final against South Africa.

View image

Perhaps they use different criteria - total metres vs. post-contact perhaps? - but it still makes very little sense that someone like Woodley has carried the ball for either 8 or 82 metres (I'd have no idea how Woodley would've gotten 74 pre-contact metres so it doesn't make a lot of sense, either way).

All of this just to say, rugby statistics still have some way to go and it's probably best to look at things yourself if you really want to make your mind up.

Good on you, mate: keep them on their toes!

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

Kirifi's gainline % in that last game was Blackadder low.

It worries me that we might see Kirifi and Blackadder selected together in the same All Blacks backrow at some point. And the opposition are going to have fun driving us back all game.

@Bones said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

@booboo said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks v France series:

'super' fast ball.

Which is better?

SQB or ultra quick ball?

Are both SQB and UQB quicker than very quick ball?

And is just plain or garden variety quick ball a relic from the 4 point try days?

Just don't let Marshall call the ball a nut in this instance.

I’d like to hear Mex opine on this.