
aaand we're back! NRL kicks off this weekend in Vegas. While scoffed at by many, the season opening weekend in Vegas has been a roaring success. Which is why it is so surprising that the NRL has set out to actively sabotage it this year by taking the Knights, the Cowboys, the Dragons and the Bulldogs supporters over. 3 of these teams will fight out the spoon, at there is a huge probability that two of the teams will sack their coach this year. And yet the biggest crimes will probably be Dogs supporters at the Casino. Wait, actually, most of them probably won't get past US Border protection on looks alone.
What does the season hold? fuck knows. Preseason is completely meaningless, except maybe for Nathan Cleary who is looking at 3 weeks for a shoulder to the head. Ivan probably didn't get him maccas on the way home after that one.
how will everyone go? fuck knows.
Brisbane roll in as defending premiers. They won the comp on the back of being able to blow teams away at the back end of games with all out attack. They tried that last week and came up just a little short. Need to find a way to play with a little more control. It would be a brave man who calls them to fall away given the talent they have on board.
Melbourne were the beaten grand finalists. Melbourne never fucking die. Papi is gone from fullback, they've lost quality depth players, who have not been replaced. For all that, they still have Hughes, Munster and Grant, and that will take you a long way. Katoa may be their biggest loss given how many points he contributed from an otherwise workmanlike pack last year.
Penrith are back with almost the same main team. They've been up for a while, but that is a ridiculous roster still, and guys like McLean are getting better. As long as they stay injury free they should be favourites.
Cronulla are the same team as last year, and will be the same team as last year, probably consistent enough to make the 8, not good enough to win it. AFB will play Origin this year though.
The Dogs have been building over a few years. I still think they lack the spine to be a genuinely good team, but they "mostly" defend well, and have a few points in them when required. Will make the 8 but again i don't expect them to really push on.
Canberra were last year's surprise packets, and then went out in straight sets. Ricky took the shackles off last year and let the boys play, and they were genuinely fun to watch. The Green Machine are stacked with young talent, but here's the kicker. They released their halfback, who genuinely ran everything last year. It cannot be underestimated how big a move this is, Fogarty had his best season ever and kept the Raiders in the right parts of the field that allowed that talent to shine. A fall could be on teh cards.
Where are the Wahs? Overachieved last year on the back of a few player surprises. Barnett, Fish and Clark is an elite starting middle, and we play so well off that. Is there the depth behind them now to not rely on them completely? Metcalf came out of nowhere to be a genuinely good 7 as well. Usual problems persisted, not enough points, beyond leaky edges. There is young talent there, if Webby can take the handbrake off they might be in a good spot. If he persists with the old guys, and a safety first game plan we could go south. I don't think we make the 8.
The Roosters made the 8 last year despite losing everyone last offseason, and then getting smoked by injury. They released a good young half to sign DCE i guess hoping for that Cooper Cronk bump? Will that work? Can Walker stay fit for longer than a month? Signing Robson will help their ruck work out. They still have quality everywhere, will probably pick up some good free agent on "unders". I reckon they play top 4
The Dolphins, injury luck turning around, should be the big movers from last year. They get their forward pack back after they got smoked last year. They added Cobbo to help out the backs with some depth. If Nikorima has another good year, and Marshall-King doesn't take too long to come back, they could race up the table. Need to defend way better than last year though, you can't just outscore everyone every week.
I'm backing Manly to plummet without DCE, and Seibold to get fired. I think the Turbo boys are still chewing too much cap, their middles are soft, Brooks is hopeless, and they are hoping Fogarty can hold the joint together. Still have mad wheels out wide so will score pretty tries, but also give up points in clumps.
Parra, if Moses stays fit, should push on. Hard calls were made last year and i think they paid off. Young Pezet looks a good player to play off the bench. They finished last season looking really good, and i honestly rate Moses as the best half in the comp. If he plays 80% of the season they will play finals.
The Cowboys? Massive underperformers last year. Spud coach. Can't defend. Added Matt Lodge. I don't have much hope for the Townsville lads. Surely Payten gets fired. Dearden deserves better.
The Tigers have looked okay in preseason. I still don't reckon Benji is much of a coach though. I think they will be a marginally better team than last year, maybe even get back to their historical 9th. Doueihi at halfback might be a shrewd move for them.
Souths? Smashed by injuries last year. Haven't lost anyone. Have gained the big "what if" in Dave Fifita. If Wayne can get Dave back on track then their left edge will be frightening. I am not sure what their halfback situation, and they will rely on Cody Walkers old legs. Could be anything this year.
St George are my favs for the spoon. They have a shit squad, their first grade side got humped in a trial by a NSW team. They have a shit coach who will be short in the first fired market. Dark days ahead.
Somehow Gold Coast avoided the spoon last year. Des got fired. They got the gun coach hire (well, that's what everyone expects). Got rid of the Fifita headache and started trimming the squad. They have a few good players but i think they are still a weak squad who will not move far this year. They need to show something though to attract some talent.
Newcastle finished last and fired their coach. They have a retread at the helm. They've got Brown in on maaaaasive money, meaning approximately 90% of their cap is in two players. For too long it's been Ponga or nothing, and if it's the same this year they're fucked. They've shed a few list clogging halves so that might provide some clarity. But i can't see them climbing that far.
Picking a ladder is always fucked, because this league can be both predictable, and unpredictable at the same time.
Penrith
Dogs
Roosters
Cronulla
Dolphins
Broncos
Melbourne
Eels
Raiders
Souths
Warriors
Tigers
Cowboys
Manly
Titans
Knights
Dragons