I’ve been rewatching the 2021 TRC matches between the Wallabies and the Springboks, and it does make me wonder about certain narratives that are currently floating around.
Many people seem to portray the upcoming Test matches as a clash of styles, with the AB possession game going up against the Springbok tactics of aerial bombardment and breakdown pressure. But while the Wallabies under Rennie played a possession-heavy game against the ABs in the first two rounds of the 2021 Rugby Championship, they strongly mixed it up against the Boks, letting SA have more of the ball while kicking more for territory.
Rennie’s Wallaby tactics in the 2021 TRC: a possession game against Foster’s ABs, a territory game against Nienaber’s Boks (stats: carries, passes, kicks, rucks won, percentage of possession, and possession of total tackles in the game)
Rennie’s Wallabies played against the ABs like the ABs played this July: ball in hand, lots of passes and lots of carries, while looking to attack from anywhere. But this doesn’t mean that these three July Tests signal a definitive playing style: Rennie approached the Boks very differently in the next two rounds, making sure not to overplay against the Bok blitz. We shouldn’t be surprised, in other words, if a very different AB game plan appears in South Africa.
And this brings me to a second point, selection. The key for the Wallabies’ wins against the Boks in 2021 was the Wallaby backline spine of Nic White, Quade Cooper and Reece Hodge, who all provided a unique aspect to the kicking game. White, at the time, was one of the best box kickers in the world, Hodge had a massive punt that could put the Springboks back into their 22, and Cooper had an educated boot which could find space behind the Springbok blitz.
If Rennie is going to play a similar kick pressure game against the Springboks in the upcoming tour, some changes would be expected in terms of squad selection. The key area of selection would be halfback: neither Roigard nor Ratima have a box kick as dependable as Nic White’s, while Preston has had more of an impact role at the Crusaders this year, being asked to speed up the game when coming on.
A player like Noah Hotham might come back into consideration from this perspective: while his pass and decision-making can be subpar at times, in terms of contestable kicking, the Crusaders are the only side who come close to the South African franchises.
The Kiwi and South African franchises kick about as much per game but the percentage of contestability is on a whole different level. Across the top club competitions, all of the South African teams are in the top 15, while only the Crusaders appear there as well (14th). The other teams – Blues (37th), Chiefs (t-43rd), Hurricanes (t-43rd), and Highlanders (48th) – rank near the bottom
The tour of South Africa should show whether Rennie is still the pragmatist he was earlier in his career or whether he will persist with the same tactics and style no matter the opponent. One of Robertson’s biggest problems during his tenure was the lack of flexibility in tactics, with a changeup in playing style being all too rare. My hope is that Rennie shows some more cunning in terms of strategy and selection. He will need it, coming up against that most cunning of foxes in the Republic.
