@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
do you think the Crusaders would have kicked fewer contestables if Roigard had been playing for them?
Let me answer your suggestive question with one of my own: why did the Chiefs kick exactly the same amount of total kicks and contestables as the Hurricanes, despite not having Roigard?
@mauss said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
do you think the Crusaders would have kicked fewer contestables if Roigard had been playing for them?
Let me answer your suggestive question with one of my own: why did the Chiefs kick exactly the same amount of total kicks and contestables as the Hurricanes, despite not having Roigard?
I'm assuming potentially because their team's tactics weren't dictated based on the box kicking abilities of their halfbacks.
My point being, Hotham might not be good at box kicks just because his team employed it as a tactic regularly. Roigard seems a much better box kicker than Ratima but as you say, that didn't affect how often the Hurricanes and Chiefs utilised it.
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
I'm assuming potentially because their team's tactics weren't dictated based on the box kicking abilities of their halfbacks.
My point being, Hotham might not be good at box kicks just because his team employed it as a tactic regularly. Roigard seems a much better box kicker than Ratima but as you say, that didn't affect how often the Hurricanes and Chiefs utilised it.
I think you are confusing the % of contestability stat with number of box kicks kicked. The stat doesn't say how many times a team box kicked; it reflects how many of them were actually contestable. This is Opta's definition: "The percentage of kicks which resulted in an aerial contest between an attacking and defending player."
I looked at contestable kicking in the early rounds of SRP, and in their game against the Blues, the Chiefs attempted to kick contestables both from 9 and 10. But the quality of the kick wasn't good enough, meaning that these kicks wouldn't even appear in this stat.
So I don't think the Crusaders kicked that much more contestables than the Chiefs; they were simply better at it. And I think Hotham was an important part of that success. Furthermore, while Roigard's kicking is usually a strength of his, I think he was quite poor in this area in July. Both his contestable and his exit kicking will need to be a lot better in South Africa.
Hothams box kicking was much improved this year.
Some other areas of his game were pretty average though.
@mauss said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
I'm assuming potentially because their team's tactics weren't dictated based on the box kicking abilities of their halfbacks.
My point being, Hotham might not be good at box kicks just because his team employed it as a tactic regularly. Roigard seems a much better box kicker than Ratima but as you say, that didn't affect how often the Hurricanes and Chiefs utilised it.
I think you are confusing the % of contestability stat with number of box kicks kicked. The stat doesn't say how many times a team box kicked; it reflects how many of them were actually contestable. This is Opta's definition: "The percentage of kicks which resulted in an aerial contest between an attacking and defending player."
I looked at contestable kicking in the early rounds of SRP, and in their game against the Blues, the Chiefs attempted to kick contestables both from 9 and 10. But the quality of the kick wasn't good enough, meaning that these kicks wouldn't even appear in this stat.
So I don't think the Crusaders kicked that much more contestables than the Chiefs; they were simply better at it. And I think Hotham was an important part of that success. Furthermore, while Roigard's kicking is usually a strength of his, I think he was quite poor in this area in July. Both his contestable and his exit kicking will need to be a lot better in South Africa.
My ignorance here, does the % of contestibility stat only look at kicks that are intended to be contestable, or all kicks? Because the former would be an accurate measure of execution, whereas the latter would be significantly impacted by strategy.
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
My ignorance here, does the % of contestibility stat only look at kicks that are intended to be contestable, or all kicks? Because the former would be an accurate measure of execution, whereas the latter would be significantly impacted by strategy.
The stat is really just what it says it is, i.e. the number of kicks that led to a contest between a defender and attacker. Intention would be something that is very hard to measure: imagine that a team has a ruck just inside their 22, and the halfback is supposed to kick for touch around the 40. But he undercooks it and it drifts into the field of play, with the chaser ending up in an aerial contest with the defence. Not intended as a contestable but obviously still measured as such. It is very hard to make that objective distinction.
The stat for me represents a combination of strategy and execution: obviously, the Crusaders intended to kick contestably. But so did a lot of other teams. The fact that they feature close to the South African franchises – who are top of the pile in terms of contestable kicking, both in terms of intention and execution – shows that a player like Hotham can deliver a kind of kicking game which might be of interest to Rennie (we’ll know soon enough, if that’s the case).
So again, my point was really simple: I think the kicking game was a very important part of Rennie’s wins against the Boks in 2021 and I’m not completely sure he has all bases covered with the current group. Personally, I’d also like to see a player like Zarn Sullivan involved for similar reasons: he can kick with distance and accuracy, which is an important asset if the ABs want to play more of a territory game.
A little bit of information I was passed this morning.
If Richie Mounga and Shannon Frizell signed 2 year deals they would have been selected for this South African tour. They signed 1 year deals so they weren’t.
NZR stood their ground.
It was mentioned that Mo'unga only signed an 18 month contract, and he knew the consequences of that decision.
@landers92 said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
A little bit of information I was passed this morning.
If Richie Mounga and Shannon Frizell signed 2 year deals they would have been selected for this South African tour. They signed 1 year deals so they weren’t.
NZR stood their ground.
Good, neither are needed. You make exceptions for the Carters, McCaws, even the Ardies, not for players that didn't push on in the next level.
I also think picking them would be disruptive to the current squad, smelling of special treatment.
@bovidae said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
It was mentioned that Mo'unga only signed an 18 month contract, and he knew the consequences of that decision.
Exactly. It was on NZR’s term and I actually applaud that. Nobody is bigger than the jersey.
I mentioned this in another thread the other day but that’s all well and good until you pick Fehi who was uncapped, leaving the country etc (as it stands). I’m not saying one is right or wrong but it does feel weird to have players who have committed to NZ Rugby (at least in short term) eligible but someone leaving and with no previous record behind them, able to be selected.
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
Confirming that Jacomb is in and just three halfbacks have been selected.
I don't mind Jacomb over Harkin. He hasn't played very well this year, but he has played quite a bit more at 10 than Harkin has, and I think that's the position they are selecting, not 15.
Only 3 halfbacks is very interesting, I wouldn't have believed it but maybe they actually are getting some reps into Carter as emergency cover. That's a lot of eggs we are putting in young Pledger's injured and yet-to-debut basket, but he does look the part as much as anyone can at the lower level.
@kirwan said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@landers92 said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
A little bit of information I was passed this morning.
If Richie Mounga and Shannon Frizell signed 2 year deals they would have been selected for this South African tour. They signed 1 year deals so they weren’t.
NZR stood their ground.
Good, neither are needed. You make exceptions for the Carters, McCaws, even the Ardies, not for players that didn't push on in the next level.
I also think picking them would be disruptive to the current squad, smelling of special treatment.
Even if there were gaps these players could fill, which might have been the case at first five before this year. But with Love looking promising and the move away from Barrett, Mo'unga is now nothing more than another squad member. Frizell was never all that good.
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
Confirming that Jacomb is in and just three halfbacks have been selected.
Ratima to get three test caps in South Africa with a total of nine minutes on the field.
@upthelanders said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish The whole squad or just the extra 10?
Haven't heard but would imagine the whole squad.
@shaquilleoatmeal said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
Confirming that Jacomb is in and just three halfbacks have been selected.
Ratima to get three test caps in South Africa with a total of nine minutes on the field.
It does make me laugh how many single digit minute caps the guy gets. He'll get to 50 soon without us realising.
@african-monkey said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@shaquilleoatmeal said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
Confirming that Jacomb is in and just three halfbacks have been selected.
Ratima to get three test caps in South Africa with a total of nine minutes on the field.
It does make me laugh how many single digit minute caps the guy gets. He'll get to 50 soon without us realising.
Only five of his 25 to date, to be fair.
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@upthelanders said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish The whole squad or just the extra 10?
Haven't heard but would imagine the whole squad.
Lauaki, STT, Jacomb.
@secfid said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@kiwimurph Believe Jacomb is in the 44. Suggests RM might not be fit to play as Rennie was hoping for and so he needs 10 cover rather than 15 cover. Love and Jacomb as 10’s and DMac and BB as experienced 15’s
It's been made clear RM is only eligible if injuries hit the initial 44.
@shaquilleoatmeal said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
Confirming that Jacomb is in and just three halfbacks have been selected.
Ratima to get three test caps in South Africa with a total of nine minutes on the field.
The Chiefs bias is pretty blatant and disgusting….
@pakman said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@upthelanders said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish The whole squad or just the extra 10?
Haven't heard but would imagine the whole squad.
Lauaki, STT, Jacomb.
plus - Ollie Norris, George Bell, Fabian Holland, Ethan Blackadder, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Rieko Ioane and Emoni Narawa.
There's your 10. Peston is the 3rd halfback.
Jacomb makes a great deal of sense, in that 10 remains a problem position, and we have a heap of capped fullback options.
If Love were to break his leg, we are back to Barrett, McKenzie and Mo'unga.
You can debate his form this year, but he is still the best of the rest.
So that would be a 6:4 split for the extra 10 players. This could be a missed opportunity to include a couple more debutants.
@nogusta said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@pakman said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@upthelanders said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@mr-fish The whole squad or just the extra 10?
Haven't heard but would imagine the whole squad.
Lauaki, STT, Jacomb.
plus - Ollie Norris, George Bell, Fabian Holland, Ethan Blackadder, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Rieko Ioane and Emoni Narawa.
There's your 10. Peston is the 3rd halfback.
Kirifi omission is the talking point here
Blackadder and Bell real head scratchers. Is Blackadder going to be a midweek captain maybe?
@akan004 said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
Am a fan of Rennie's coaching style and his assistants. Not a fan of his conservative selections.
I don’t think he’s been conservative at all. There are some statements being made. Taking 3 9’s is really pushing home that statement I posted yesterday regarding the halfbacks.
@kirwan said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
Blackadder and Bell real head scratchers. Is Blackadder going to be a midweek captain maybe?
“The franchise games will provide an opportunity for other leaders in the group to step in as Captain, before Ardie Savea arrives in South Africa ahead of the first Test match. Ardie has carried a massive workload in the last couple of years and we think it is best for him to have an extended break so he can come back ready to lead us into the Test series. We have a number of excellent leaders in our squad who will embrace the chance to captain the side.”
@landers92 said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
@akan004 said in All Blacks Tour of South Africa 2026:
Am a fan of Rennie's coaching style and his assistants. Not a fan of his conservative selections.
I don’t think he’s been conservative at all. There are some statements being made. Taking 3 9’s is really pushing home that statement I posted yesterday regarding the halfbacks.
Possibly partly true, although it may also be they don't feel a fourth halfback is actually needed. Roigard likely to play the majority of the test minutes.
Also hammers home that they feel there is a massive gap between #1 and #2.
