@Stargazer said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo Yeah, I think the Chiefs have a good chance of winning their QF, although the Jaguares are a different beast than early in the season and better than previous years. It won't be easy.

Chiefs will be 7 pt underdogs in Buenos Aires

Jaguares have been the best team in Super Rugby the last 10 weeks

9 wins & a bunch of teams dispatched with ease

Their last meeting is meaningless due to the state of each team:

Jaguares were 14th after that loss

Struggling with new head coach and 1st fives

Jaguares will be happy to play Chiefs who travel to BA on a short week

World U20 final is this Saturday hence QF was pushed back by 24 hours

Chiefs have their best squad healthy minus DMac

If Jaguares play to their maximum they'll be too good for Chiefs to handle

They were able to rest Creavy Lavanini Matera Cubelli Diaz Bonilla de la Fuente + Boffelli last week vs Sunwolves

Buenos Aires crowd is going to be wild

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Stargazer said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo Yeah, I think the Chiefs have a good chance of winning their QF, although the Jaguares are a different beast than early in the season and better than previous years. It won't be easy.

Chiefs will be 7 pt underdogs in Buenos Aires

Jaguares have been the best team in Super Rugby the last 10 weeks

9 wins & a bunch of teams dispatched with ease

Their last meeting is meaningless due to the state of each team:

Jaguares were 14th after that loss

Struggling with new head coach and 1st fives

Jaguares will be happy to play Chiefs who travel to BA on a short week

World U20 final is this Saturday hence QF was pushed back by 24 hours

Chiefs have their best squad healthy minus DMac

If Jaguares play to their maximum they'll be too good for Chiefs to handle

They were able to rest Creavy Lavanini Matera Cubelli Diaz Bonilla de la Fuente + Boffelli last week vs Sunwolves

Buenos Aires crowd is going to be wild

I think the Chiefs are a different gravy with both Cane and Retallick healthy.

I won't be surprised if the Chiefs win in the same way I won't be surprised if the Jaguares win.

@Jaguares4real will the power be back in BA by then

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

Buenos Aires crowd is going to be wild

Great support fella, would be a fantastic place to go and watch. Are you based over there, or in NZ (or somewhere else?) I reckon Argentina would be a great place to go and tour following a rugby team ...

This part can't be right? That is extraordinary if so and quite surprising. Surely the Crusaders would have done 8 straight?

"But what do you know, here they are, an extraordinary turnaround seeing them roar into the playoffs for an eighth-straight year - extending what was already a current record-streak for any team in the competition."

@Hooroo I think the key point in there is 'current record-streak' - Crusaders current playoff streak is 4 (missed playoffs in 2015).

@KiwiMurph said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo I think the key point in there is 'current record-streak' - Crusaders current playoff streak is 4 (missed playoffs in 2015).

OK, I didn't realise they missed out in 2015. Just kind of assumed they are always there.

@Hooroo Crusaders finished 7th but there were only 6 playoff spots in 2015.

Yeah, Crusaders finished 7th with 46 points, the Stormers won the South African conference with 45 points to finish 3rd.

It's going to be a shitfight, but hell yeah I'm up for that!

@nzzp

I'm UK based

Just a fan of ARG rugby in how they don't rely on

Mercenaries & Fake Foreigners to be good at rugby

Their 2007 RWC side was a hell of a team got my interest in Rugby TBH

@Hooroo

Those 2 players are great but Chiefs pack doesn't concern much TBH

Jaguares play SA sides who try to blast Jaguares and have largely failed to do so this season minus 2nd half vs Stormers in Cape Town

Sharks have an enormous pack much better than Chiefs & Jaguares handled them well

Chiefs big threats IMO are Weber ALB and their Back 3

Neutralise that threat & Jaguares will win by 10 points or so

Not sure Chiefs fans appreciate the Jaguares side they're playing this weekend compared to side they played 3 months ago

Team is night and Day in squad depth confidence and performance levels

Jaguares gifted the match away in last 5 mins Won't happen again

Time to end this mistake and beat Chiefs in Buenos Aires

@Jaguares4real

Bigger is not better. I know the UK systems have focussed on size and the SAs are just bememoths anyway, but the beauty of rugby is that size does not equal effectiveness (even in the forwards).

This game should be a cracker as both sides rely on forcing errors and pouncing afterwards.

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo

Those 2 players are great but Chiefs pack doesn't concern much TBH

Jaguares play SA sides who try to blast Jaguares and have largely failed to do so this season minus 2nd half vs Stormers in Cape Town

Sharks have an enormous pack much better than Chiefs & Jaguares handled them well

Chiefs big threats IMO are Weber ALB and their Back 3

Neutralise that threat & Jaguares will win by 10 points or so

Not sure Chiefs fans appreciate the Jaguares side they're playing this weekend compared to side they played 3 months ago

Team is night and Day in squad depth confidence and performance levels

Jaguares gifted the match away in last 5 mins Won't happen again

Time to end this mistake and beat Chiefs in Buenos Aires

Buenos Aires does a MUCH better steak than the Tron. Go the Jaguares!!

I'm very surprised by the chiefs optimistism, I think it's mostly inherent NZ bias. The jags are on a real roll, and are at home. The chiefs, even after their opposed training run last game, have a bloody long way to go to get to Argentina. I think there will be comfortable wins for all the home teams

@Machpants said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

I'm very surprised by the chiefs optimistism, I think it's mostly inherent NZ bias. The jags are on a real roll, and are at home. The chiefs, even after their opposed training run last game, have a bloody long way to go to get to Argentina. I think there will be comfortable wins for all the home teams

I think it is fair to have optimism that the Chiefs MAY overcome those facts. I don't think anyone here is declaring them favourites by any stretch.
What we do know is that for the first week of playoffs the travel factor is not so big. Chiefs have ensured travel at NZ night time so body clocks aren't too disrupted and the lineup will be fairly stable (hopefully) so the training can focus on sharpness.
I'm simply looking forward to the game as I am expecting a good one.

Jags are pretty much an international side so our bunch of hicks should be the underdogs.

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo

Those 2 players are great but Chiefs pack doesn't concern much TBH

Jaguares play SA sides who try to blast Jaguares and have largely failed to do so this season minus 2nd half vs Stormers in Cape Town

Sharks have an enormous pack much better than Chiefs & Jaguares handled them well

Chiefs big threats IMO are Weber ALB and their Back 3

Neutralise that threat & Jaguares will win by 10 points or so

Not sure Chiefs fans appreciate the Jaguares side they're playing this weekend compared to side they played 3 months ago

Team is night and Day in squad depth confidence and performance levels

Jaguares gifted the match away in last 5 mins Won't happen again

Time to end this mistake and beat Chiefs in Buenos Aires

It’s not their size that is their point of difference, it’s their skill level.

As you say the Jags have been able to deal with the big sized SA packs, but it’s when the Chiefs try and speed the game up with their link game is where the Jags will be tested.

I do like the Jags chances. They are playing with confidence and are a far more committed defensive side.

Chiefs can score in bunches and of all the NZ sides they have these 15-20 minute bursts that either get them back into a game or turn it against the other.

People always talk about how big SA sides are.

Yet NZ sides rarely get pushed around. And the weights, as televised, are only a couple of kegs different. True, we can be out-muscled by sides who practice mauling more, etc, but weight is no deal.

The likes of Ben Tameifuna isn't a SA speciality.

Chiefs side with BBBR & Cane are an entirely different beast than without, it also helps lift those around them.

I dont think any optimism by Chiefs fans is mis-guided (see my comment above) that said I expect the team is very grounded and will know they are in for a match that should be test match intensity.

@Jaguares4real the way you are talking, the Jaguares just need to turn up and they will win, yet you point as Chiefs optimism?

Reckon this could be the game of the round.

@taniwharugby Agree, but I'm a Chiefs fan and I'm riding on the latest wins. Having Sammy and Guzzler back brings the leadership that they've missed all year back. Jaguares have been outstanding this year and I think it will be a great game but a close game. Always back my lads to get the W, even if statistically there's no hope.

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

@Donsteppa said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

That's the spirit! My hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to supporting the chiefs!!!

It's a same that Luke Jacobson has not recovered from concussion! However, Lachlan Boshier has done very well in his absence.

@Hooroo said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Donsteppa said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

That's the spirit! My hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to supporting the chiefs!!!

Fact is the Chiefs are a threat to any team when they have Cane and BBBR both fit and firing. History shows the travel is a bit of a killer, but your optimism is not completely misplaced. This should be a cracking game.

@No-Quarter said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Donsteppa said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

That's the spirit! My hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to supporting the chiefs!!!

Fact is the Chiefs are a threat to any team when they have Cane and BBBR both fit and firing. History shows the travel is a bit of a killer, but you're optimism is not completely misplaced. This should be a cracking game.

Meh

Chiefs pack is run of the mill with a few star players

Jaguares play 4 SA side who ALL have better packs than the Chiefs

I'd also rate the Brumbies & Crusaders packs as well on a superior level to Chiefs and of course the Jaguares themselves

Chiefs rely on 4-5 star players Limit them and Jaguares win by 5-7 points

In a way it'll be like playing the Hurricanes both in style and dependency on stars to win games for them

Bear in mind Jaguares have the 2nd best Points Differential in 2nd halves of matches this season in SR

Chiefs better have a big lead early as Jaguares finish strong

Jaguares will also have an advantage as they're one of the fittest sides in the Comp

We've never lost in Argentina either i believe

@mariner4life That's correct. The Chiefs lost to the Jaguares at home in 2018 (19 - 23) and beat them in Buenos Aires in 2016 (26 - 30) and 2019 (27 - 30). The teams didn't play each other in 2017.

All three games were really close, so it should be an exciting game this weekend.

@cgrant
Worrying that he's been out for so long with it - hope it's mainly as a precaution as he's still very young and has shown a lot of promise.

@Stargazer said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

es were really close, so it should be an exciting game this weekend.

Indeed both game in BA have been very close and games Jaguares have lost in last 5 mins

Jaguares should have won both games but were careless and sloppy

DMac was a big favour in both of these previous wins

Without him Chiefs are a much weaker team & this version of the Jaguares is by FAR the best version in their 4 years playing in SR

Chiefs are a very good team but at BEST have a 25% chance of winning this weekend

@ACT-Crusader

I agree size doesn't matter re. forward packs

Jaguares pack has matched up very well this vs NZ packs

DOMINATED the soft Hurricanes pack in Cake Tin

Played well vs Landers

Belted Chiefs pack in 2nd half in Buenos Aires

TBH the Blues pack was very impressive in BA

Big Karl Ola T Big Pat and Akira were making yards and getting over advantage line

Heck Pat wiped out Gus Creavy from the game with a brutal clear out of the ruck

@Jaguares4real the Jags will definitely be happy to have the Chiefs at home rather than traveling to Christchurch or Wellington. I agree they'll be confident they can get the job done, this is a great chance for them to make a semi final.

@No-Quarter said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Jaguares4real the Jags will definitely be happy to have the Chiefs at home rather than traveling to Christchurch or Wellington. I agree they'll be confident they can get the job done, this is a great chance for them to make a semi final.

And will probably look a little silly if the don't make the semi given the above write-ups....

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@No-Quarter said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Donsteppa said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

That's the spirit! My hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to supporting the chiefs!!!

Fact is the Chiefs are a threat to any team when they have Cane and BBBR both fit and firing. History shows the travel is a bit of a killer, but you're optimism is not completely misplaced. This should be a cracking game.

Meh

Chiefs pack is run of the mill with a few star players

Jaguares play 4 SA side who ALL have better packs than the Chiefs

Which is why, of course, those SA sides finished so highly up the tables, having demolished the NZ sides with those superior packs.

No, wait, ....

I'm intrigued why you think the SA packs are superior -- and this is a game-winning attribute -- when it clearly isn't.

The Chiefs don't need to win it in the forwards. All they need to do is not lose it.

Meh

Chiefs pack is run of the mill with a few star players

Jaguares play 4 SA side who ALL have better packs than the Chiefs

Which is why, of course, those SA sides finished so highly up the tables, having demolished the NZ sides with those superior packs.

No, wait, ....

I'm intrigued why you think the SA packs are superior -- and this is a game-winning attribute -- when it clearly isn't.

The Chiefs don't need to win it in the forwards. All they need to do is not lose it.

Having a very good pack is nice starting point but isn't much use if your team is badly coached,has a lack of quality starting #10

Nepotism can also affect the team negatively Poor skill levels as well can be detrimental to a team Having your team decimated by players going to Europe/Japan will also likely weaken your team overall

The above scenarios explain why the SA sides whilst having dominant packs have struggled to be consistent this season

Let's not kid ourselves Chiefs are closer to SA sides than Jaguares

You have Crusaders Jaguares Hurricanes and Brumbies on a level way above everyone else

We're looking at a 2 game sample for the Chiefs :face_screaming_in_fear: :face_screaming_in_fear:

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

Meh

Chiefs pack is run of the mill with a few star players

Jaguares play 4 SA side who ALL have better packs than the Chiefs

Which is why, of course, those SA sides finished so highly up the tables, having demolished the NZ sides with those superior packs.

No, wait, ....

I'm intrigued why you think the SA packs are superior -- and this is a game-winning attribute -- when it clearly isn't.

The Chiefs don't need to win it in the forwards. All they need to do is not lose it.

Having a very good pack is nice starting point but isn't much use if your team is badly coached,has a lack of quality starting #10

Nepotism can also affect the team negatively Poor skill levels as well can be detrimental to a team Having your team decimated by players going to Europe/Japan will also likely weaken your team overall

The above scenarios explain why the SA sides whilst having dominant packs have struggled to be consistent this season

Let's not kid ourselves Chiefs are closer to SA sides than Jaguares

You have Crusaders Jaguares Hurricanes and Brumbies on a level way above everyone else

We're looking at a 2 game sample for the Chiefs :face_screaming_in_fear: :face_screaming_in_fear:

Chiefs did enough to finish 7th.

3rd in the pool that delivered 4 quarter finalists.

Beat some teams with MAAAAASSSSIVVVE forward packs.

Obviously they have a piss weak forward pack ...

I'm thinking Jagulars win this, and are deserved favourites, but I'm not convinced by your logic @Jaguares4real.

60/40 Jagulars to win.

Chiefs

1 Atu Moli (37)
2 Nathan Harris (57)
3 Angus Ta’avao (31)
4 Brodie Retallick (106)
5 Tyler Ardron (27)
6 Lachlan Boshier (43)
7 Sam Cane (110) (c)
8 Pita Gus Sowakula (14)
9 Brad Weber (71)
10 Jack Debreczeni (5)
11 Sean Wainui (25)
12 Anton Lienert-Brown (68)
13 Tumua Manu (15)
14 Shaun Stevenson (43)
15 Solomon Alaimalo (37)

Reserves:
16 Samisoni Taukei’aho (25)
17 Aidan Ross (24)
18 Nepo Laulala (31)
19 Jesse Parete (23)
20 Mitchell Jacobson (3)
21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (31)
22 Marty McKenzie (30)
23 Alex Nankivell (21)/Ataata Moeakiola (9)

() = Gallagher Chiefs caps in brackets

Unavailable for selection:
Bailyn Sullivan, Damian McKenzie, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Fin Hoeata, Kane Hames, Laghlan McWhannell, Liam Polwart, Luke Jacobson, Michael Allardice, Mitchell Brown, Mitchell Karpik, Reuben O’Neill, Sam McNicol, Taleni Seu and Tiaan Falcon.

Can’t argue with that line up at all.

@Crucial said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

Can’t argue with that line up at all.

Chiefs by 10!

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

You have Crusaders Jaguares Hurricanes and Brumbies on a level way above everyone else