@Machpants said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

I'm very surprised by the chiefs optimistism, I think it's mostly inherent NZ bias. The jags are on a real roll, and are at home. The chiefs, even after their opposed training run last game, have a bloody long way to go to get to Argentina. I think there will be comfortable wins for all the home teams

I think it is fair to have optimism that the Chiefs MAY overcome those facts. I don't think anyone here is declaring them favourites by any stretch.
What we do know is that for the first week of playoffs the travel factor is not so big. Chiefs have ensured travel at NZ night time so body clocks aren't too disrupted and the lineup will be fairly stable (hopefully) so the training can focus on sharpness.
I'm simply looking forward to the game as I am expecting a good one.

Jags are pretty much an international side so our bunch of hicks should be the underdogs.

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo

Those 2 players are great but Chiefs pack doesn't concern much TBH

Jaguares play SA sides who try to blast Jaguares and have largely failed to do so this season minus 2nd half vs Stormers in Cape Town

Sharks have an enormous pack much better than Chiefs & Jaguares handled them well

Chiefs big threats IMO are Weber ALB and their Back 3

Neutralise that threat & Jaguares will win by 10 points or so

Not sure Chiefs fans appreciate the Jaguares side they're playing this weekend compared to side they played 3 months ago

Team is night and Day in squad depth confidence and performance levels

Jaguares gifted the match away in last 5 mins Won't happen again

Time to end this mistake and beat Chiefs in Buenos Aires

It’s not their size that is their point of difference, it’s their skill level.

As you say the Jags have been able to deal with the big sized SA packs, but it’s when the Chiefs try and speed the game up with their link game is where the Jags will be tested.

I do like the Jags chances. They are playing with confidence and are a far more committed defensive side.

Chiefs can score in bunches and of all the NZ sides they have these 15-20 minute bursts that either get them back into a game or turn it against the other.

People always talk about how big SA sides are.

Yet NZ sides rarely get pushed around. And the weights, as televised, are only a couple of kegs different. True, we can be out-muscled by sides who practice mauling more, etc, but weight is no deal.

The likes of Ben Tameifuna isn't a SA speciality.

Chiefs side with BBBR & Cane are an entirely different beast than without, it also helps lift those around them.

I dont think any optimism by Chiefs fans is mis-guided (see my comment above) that said I expect the team is very grounded and will know they are in for a match that should be test match intensity.

@Jaguares4real the way you are talking, the Jaguares just need to turn up and they will win, yet you point as Chiefs optimism?

Reckon this could be the game of the round.

@taniwharugby Agree, but I'm a Chiefs fan and I'm riding on the latest wins. Having Sammy and Guzzler back brings the leadership that they've missed all year back. Jaguares have been outstanding this year and I think it will be a great game but a close game. Always back my lads to get the W, even if statistically there's no hope.

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

@Donsteppa said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

That's the spirit! My hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to supporting the chiefs!!!

It's a same that Luke Jacobson has not recovered from concussion! However, Lachlan Boshier has done very well in his absence.

@Hooroo said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Donsteppa said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

That's the spirit! My hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to supporting the chiefs!!!

Fact is the Chiefs are a threat to any team when they have Cane and BBBR both fit and firing. History shows the travel is a bit of a killer, but your optimism is not completely misplaced. This should be a cracking game.

@No-Quarter said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Donsteppa said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

That's the spirit! My hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to supporting the chiefs!!!

Fact is the Chiefs are a threat to any team when they have Cane and BBBR both fit and firing. History shows the travel is a bit of a killer, but you're optimism is not completely misplaced. This should be a cracking game.

Meh

Chiefs pack is run of the mill with a few star players

Jaguares play 4 SA side who ALL have better packs than the Chiefs

I'd also rate the Brumbies & Crusaders packs as well on a superior level to Chiefs and of course the Jaguares themselves

Chiefs rely on 4-5 star players Limit them and Jaguares win by 5-7 points

In a way it'll be like playing the Hurricanes both in style and dependency on stars to win games for them

Bear in mind Jaguares have the 2nd best Points Differential in 2nd halves of matches this season in SR

Chiefs better have a big lead early as Jaguares finish strong

Jaguares will also have an advantage as they're one of the fittest sides in the Comp

We've never lost in Argentina either i believe

@mariner4life That's correct. The Chiefs lost to the Jaguares at home in 2018 (19 - 23) and beat them in Buenos Aires in 2016 (26 - 30) and 2019 (27 - 30). The teams didn't play each other in 2017.

All three games were really close, so it should be an exciting game this weekend.

@cgrant
Worrying that he's been out for so long with it - hope it's mainly as a precaution as he's still very young and has shown a lot of promise.

@Stargazer said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

es were really close, so it should be an exciting game this weekend.

Indeed both game in BA have been very close and games Jaguares have lost in last 5 mins

Jaguares should have won both games but were careless and sloppy

DMac was a big favour in both of these previous wins

Without him Chiefs are a much weaker team & this version of the Jaguares is by FAR the best version in their 4 years playing in SR

Chiefs are a very good team but at BEST have a 25% chance of winning this weekend

@ACT-Crusader

I agree size doesn't matter re. forward packs

Jaguares pack has matched up very well this vs NZ packs

DOMINATED the soft Hurricanes pack in Cake Tin

Played well vs Landers

Belted Chiefs pack in 2nd half in Buenos Aires

TBH the Blues pack was very impressive in BA

Big Karl Ola T Big Pat and Akira were making yards and getting over advantage line

Heck Pat wiped out Gus Creavy from the game with a brutal clear out of the ruck

@Jaguares4real the Jags will definitely be happy to have the Chiefs at home rather than traveling to Christchurch or Wellington. I agree they'll be confident they can get the job done, this is a great chance for them to make a semi final.

@No-Quarter said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Jaguares4real the Jags will definitely be happy to have the Chiefs at home rather than traveling to Christchurch or Wellington. I agree they'll be confident they can get the job done, this is a great chance for them to make a semi final.

And will probably look a little silly if the don't make the semi given the above write-ups....

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@No-Quarter said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Donsteppa said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

If DMac was fit we would be favourites for the whole comp

I've gone from wild pessimism about not winning a game all season after that first mauling from the Crusaders, to ridiculous optimism about flying back and forth around the globe and beating everyone over the next three weeks!

That's the spirit! My hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to supporting the chiefs!!!

Fact is the Chiefs are a threat to any team when they have Cane and BBBR both fit and firing. History shows the travel is a bit of a killer, but you're optimism is not completely misplaced. This should be a cracking game.

Meh

Chiefs pack is run of the mill with a few star players

Jaguares play 4 SA side who ALL have better packs than the Chiefs

Which is why, of course, those SA sides finished so highly up the tables, having demolished the NZ sides with those superior packs.

No, wait, ....

I'm intrigued why you think the SA packs are superior -- and this is a game-winning attribute -- when it clearly isn't.

The Chiefs don't need to win it in the forwards. All they need to do is not lose it.

Meh

Chiefs pack is run of the mill with a few star players

Jaguares play 4 SA side who ALL have better packs than the Chiefs

Which is why, of course, those SA sides finished so highly up the tables, having demolished the NZ sides with those superior packs.

No, wait, ....

I'm intrigued why you think the SA packs are superior -- and this is a game-winning attribute -- when it clearly isn't.

The Chiefs don't need to win it in the forwards. All they need to do is not lose it.

Having a very good pack is nice starting point but isn't much use if your team is badly coached,has a lack of quality starting #10

Nepotism can also affect the team negatively Poor skill levels as well can be detrimental to a team Having your team decimated by players going to Europe/Japan will also likely weaken your team overall

The above scenarios explain why the SA sides whilst having dominant packs have struggled to be consistent this season

Let's not kid ourselves Chiefs are closer to SA sides than Jaguares

You have Crusaders Jaguares Hurricanes and Brumbies on a level way above everyone else

We're looking at a 2 game sample for the Chiefs :face_screaming_in_fear: :face_screaming_in_fear:

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

Meh

Chiefs pack is run of the mill with a few star players

Jaguares play 4 SA side who ALL have better packs than the Chiefs

Which is why, of course, those SA sides finished so highly up the tables, having demolished the NZ sides with those superior packs.

No, wait, ....

I'm intrigued why you think the SA packs are superior -- and this is a game-winning attribute -- when it clearly isn't.

The Chiefs don't need to win it in the forwards. All they need to do is not lose it.

Having a very good pack is nice starting point but isn't much use if your team is badly coached,has a lack of quality starting #10

Nepotism can also affect the team negatively Poor skill levels as well can be detrimental to a team Having your team decimated by players going to Europe/Japan will also likely weaken your team overall

The above scenarios explain why the SA sides whilst having dominant packs have struggled to be consistent this season

Let's not kid ourselves Chiefs are closer to SA sides than Jaguares

You have Crusaders Jaguares Hurricanes and Brumbies on a level way above everyone else

We're looking at a 2 game sample for the Chiefs :face_screaming_in_fear: :face_screaming_in_fear:

Chiefs did enough to finish 7th.

3rd in the pool that delivered 4 quarter finalists.

Beat some teams with MAAAAASSSSIVVVE forward packs.

Obviously they have a piss weak forward pack ...

I'm thinking Jagulars win this, and are deserved favourites, but I'm not convinced by your logic @Jaguares4real.

60/40 Jagulars to win.

Chiefs

1 Atu Moli (37)
2 Nathan Harris (57)
3 Angus Ta’avao (31)
4 Brodie Retallick (106)
5 Tyler Ardron (27)
6 Lachlan Boshier (43)
7 Sam Cane (110) (c)
8 Pita Gus Sowakula (14)
9 Brad Weber (71)
10 Jack Debreczeni (5)
11 Sean Wainui (25)
12 Anton Lienert-Brown (68)
13 Tumua Manu (15)
14 Shaun Stevenson (43)
15 Solomon Alaimalo (37)

Reserves:
16 Samisoni Taukei’aho (25)
17 Aidan Ross (24)
18 Nepo Laulala (31)
19 Jesse Parete (23)
20 Mitchell Jacobson (3)
21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (31)
22 Marty McKenzie (30)
23 Alex Nankivell (21)/Ataata Moeakiola (9)

() = Gallagher Chiefs caps in brackets

Unavailable for selection:
Bailyn Sullivan, Damian McKenzie, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Fin Hoeata, Kane Hames, Laghlan McWhannell, Liam Polwart, Luke Jacobson, Michael Allardice, Mitchell Brown, Mitchell Karpik, Reuben O’Neill, Sam McNicol, Taleni Seu and Tiaan Falcon.

Can’t argue with that line up at all.

@Crucial said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

Can’t argue with that line up at all.

Chiefs by 10!

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

You have Crusaders Jaguares Hurricanes and Brumbies on a level way above everyone else

Debresceni deserves a lot of credit for how he's played lately. Noticable that chiefs playing well since he's been there

That tight five ... only 4 All Blacks and a Canadian international, with only one AB on the bench.

Handy looking team.

@taniwharugby said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

You have Crusaders Jaguares Hurricanes and Brumbies on a level way above everyone else

For all the Kiwis who don't watch Super Rugby out of NZ sides

Brumbies won 10 games including their last 6 in a row

7 game winning streak at home Won their conference by 14 points

Beat Stormers in CT

Gave Jaguares a good game in BA when Jaguares were starting to fire

Battered Bulls + Lions at home

Battered Chiefs at home

Best win of the season though was beating Blues at home coming off a tough 2 game tour of SA + ARG whilst Blues were fresh off a bye

Need I go on...........

I'm here all week for any other parochial Kiwis

LOL Best win beating the (13th place) Blues....

I don't disagree that the Brumbies have been good, but that is a real reach.

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@taniwharugby said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

You have Crusaders Jaguares Hurricanes and Brumbies on a level way above everyone else

For all the Kiwis who don't watch Super Rugby out of NZ sides

Brumbies won 10 games including their last 6 in a row

7 game winning streak at home Won their conference by 14 points

Beat Stormers in CT

Gave Jaguares a good game in BA when Jaguares were starting to fire

Battered Bulls + Lions at home

Battered Chiefs at home

Best win of the season though was beating Blues at home coming off a tough 2 game tour of SA + ARG whilst Blues were fresh off a bye

Need I go on...........

I'm here all week for any other parochial Kiwis

The more I think about this game, the more I think we will win. Your team is no where near as good as you think it is. We finally have a near full strength team and will beat you by at least a converted try.

You still had a good season and nothing to be ashamed of, for sure.

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

Best win of the season though was beating Blues at home coming off a tough 2 game tour of SA + ARG whilst Blues were fresh off a bye

ah righto....any statement that includes 'best win over blues' ...

amusing how you are dismissve of Kiwis opinions and find rubbish statements ot back up yours.

Dont get me wrong, the Jaguares have played well, and deserve to be clear favorites in this match, but to be as dismissive of the Chiefs as you have, and then to question how much rugby I watch?

Based on your pumping, the Jaguares should win by about 20 points, although I suspect some of what are posting is just trolling.

@Hooroo

The ignorance is embarrassing to see

You'd think Jaguares were playing 2012 Chiefs ffs

Can we have some Kiwis on here who've actually watched more than 1 or 2 fucking Jaguares games this season

7 wins and a negative Points difference hardly screams Champion Side :grinning_face: :grinning_face:

Only 17 pts behind Hurricanes & 22 points behind Crusaders

@Jaguares4real said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

@Hooroo

The ignorance is embarrassing to see

You'd think Jaguares were playing 2012 Chiefs ffs

Can we have some Kiwis on here who've actually watched more than 1 or 2 fucking Jaguares games this season

7 wins and a negative Points difference hardly screams Champion Side :grinning_face: :grinning_face:

Only 17 pts behind Hurricanes & 22 points behind Crusaders

Don't get me wrong, we're not a champion side. Thing is, neither are the Jaguares.

Going to be a real humiliator for you when we win.

It's not ignorance either, it's arrogance

@Jaguares4real I have watched all Jaguares games, all Chiefs games, and almost all other games.

The Jaguares have improved since the beginning of the season. The Chiefs have improved a lot since the beginning of the season.

I see the Jaguares as clear favourites for this game, but I agree with others that you too easily dismiss the Chiefs' chances.

I actually find the Jaguares more dangerous in the backs than in the forwards.

Sorry, I don't have more time to post a longer contribution, but I think you're underestimating the Chiefs.

@taniwharugby said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

our pumping, the Jaguares should win by about 20 po

I said it was their BEST win

This was said in the context of a tough 2 game tour where they had to make over 200 tackles and hold off a Stormers team formidable at home

Then backed it up against the Jaguares who were starting to hit their straps

That game was a real street fight Brumbies impressed in defeat

They THEN flew black home to play an team who hadn't played the previous week and won convincingly

CONTEXT matters

BTW Brumbies best PERFORMANCE was hammering the Chiefs but I don't want to remind Chiefs fans of that....................

I think some forfeits need to be done by the losing supporters, now this is getting tasty banter.

@Stargazer

Boffelli being fit is a massive boost for Jaguares

Guy is a major strike weapon and is dominant in contestable kicks

pffft, that team doesn't even have one New Zealander in it, they have no chance

@mariner4life said in QF 3: Jaguares v Chiefs:

pffft, that team doesn't even have one New Zealander in it, they have no chance

I know

I need to get back on message then

The irony is that Jaguares this year have largely resembled a Kiwi SR team in that they kick alot and very well

Deadly in transitions from turnovers and unstructured play

Willingness to attack breakdowns and concede penalties

Good ball skills to boot