EPL 2022 / 2023

@bayimports
I didn't include you in the relegation update because, as I thought three weeks ago, you have a comparatively easy run in. You have nine points from your last five games so sit on 33 with six games to go.

Only one of those games is against a top 10 side. Southampton (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (H), Crystal Palace (A), Man Utd (H), Everton (A)

I reckon given the number of games between relegation contenders that 36 points will be the cut-off. If you do lose your next two games it will definitely be sphincter clenching, but I believe you've done enough already to stagger over the line.

Such a relief to be able to post on the relegation battle without skin in the game.

Everton are the one in big trouble. Been in the top tier all my life. Given their financial situation, relegation could be catastrophic for them.

Bournemouth are safe!!!! Yes I'm calling it. 7 clear of the relegation zone and to be pulled into the bottom 3 they would need to lose their last 5 games and have 3 of the bottom 5 get 6 or 7 points in 5 games. Southampton must be goneburger now and Everton have won only 6 games all season - their game at Leicester is huge for both teams.

Meanwhile Newcastle look nailed on for top 4, and Spurs come back from 2-0 down for a vital point in the 5/6th place race.

@KiwiPie said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

Bournemouth are safe!!!! Yes I'm calling it. 7 clear of the relegation zone and to be pulled into the bottom 3 they would need to lose their last 5 games and have 3 of the bottom 5 get 6 or 7 points in 5 games. Southampton must be goneburger now and Everton have won only 6 games all season - their game at Leicester is huge for both teams.

Meanwhile Newcastle look nailed on for top 4, and Spurs come back from 2-0 down for a vital point in the 5/6th place race.

Im with Gary ONeil and I dont think 36 is safe just yet, 37 on the other hand and I will be breathing easier. Currently 2 wins ahead of Leeds and Forest but goal difference thanks to Liverpool declaring 9 without loss on us earlier in the season puts us back the fight if we tie. One more point gives us that extra room. Any points from the Leeds fixture should put us in safety. Interestingly we are only one win away from Chelsea on the table...what a weird season.

Still very happy with the result!

@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

Leeds 16th - 30 points - 4 points from last 5 games Max 37 points
Bournemouth (A), Man City (A), Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H)

Forest 17th 30 points - 3 points from last 5 games Away form dire Max 35 points
Brentford (A), Southampton (H), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Crystal Palace (A)

Everton 18th - 28 points -6 points from last 6 games Max 35 points
Newcastle (H), Leicester (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Man City (H), Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H)

Leicester 19th - 28 points - 4 points from last 5 games Max 33 points
Everton (H), Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H)

Southampton 20th -24 points - 2 points from last 6 games - All but relegated
Bournemouth (H), Newcastle (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H),

All of the above are poor sides.

I reckon Saints and Forest are doomed and then it's who is the least bad out of Leeds, Leicester and Everton.

FWIW I reckon Leicester will become the 2nd Premiership winning club to be relegated, but you can make an argument for anyone but Southampton surviving, or indeed Bournemouth / West Ham getting sucked back into the shit fight.

So my guess for bottom three from here, after thinking it through a bit more 33 is now enough to be safe

1. Southampton - after this morning, a bit of a no brainer, Forest will use their match up to save themselves
2. Leicester - match with Everton potentially helps decide Everton's fate but no further wins, game against West Ham will confirm or deny this, but assume West Ham too strong.
3. Leeds - Im going a bit left field here. If Leeds dont beat Bournemouth this weekend then I don't see them winning again. I see Everton and Leeds in a head to head scrap for the drop. GON wants points this weekend and will fight all the way. I'm going to say Bournemouth win/draw at home (they do have a recent habit of tripping up on these home games though). My thoughts are Everton get lucky that their last two matches will be against teams with nothing to play for at this stage and will sneak points to pass Leeds.

Of course, Leeds will beat Bournemouth, Southampton will now beat Forest, Leicester will beat West Ham and a completely different two go down with the Saints, as this always happens with predictions lol

Can I call it now @bayimports ????

Looking a lot like Southampton down and any 2 from 4 with West Ham still vulnerable.

@KiwiPie yes... and significant relief, should allow us to retain Lerma now too. Start planning some further spending over the summer. If you said a two months ago, we would have the same points as Chelsea I don't think I would have believed it

I think Forest beat Southampton taking them past Leeds then it becomes a scrap between Leicester, Everton and Leeds with Everton the easier draw.

Chelsea are absolute rubbish at the moment. Reminds me of when Kirwan coached the blues.

At least lampard has Mme Bleakley for consolation.

Meanwhile the madness continues. Leeds apparently set to appoint Big Sam as their fourth Manager of the season. With only four games left - Citeh, Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs

@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

Meanwhile the madness continues. Leeds apparently set to appoint Big Sam as their fourth Manager of the season. With only four games left - Citeh, Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs

View embedded content

Have they even got a shot of saving themselves?

@canefan
You'd have thought not but they are still in 17th . All three clubs behind them have similarly difficult draws with one massive exception. Southampton play Forest next. They need Saints to win that an then all the bottom three to keep losing. If that happens (not totally unrealistic) they don't need another point to stay up.

29 points would have been enough two years ago so in theory....

@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

@canefan
You'd have thought not but they are still in 17th . All three clubs behind them have similarly difficult draws with one massive exception. Southampton play Forest next. They need Saints to win that an then all the bottom three to keep losing. If that happens (not totally unrealistic) they don't need another point to stay up.

29 points would have been enough two years ago so in theory....

Big Sam is a master at keeping teams up, but they have left it pretty late

@canefan said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

Big Sam is was a master at keeping teams up

West Brom...

Chelsea have pulled one back. Still looking unlikely they will get a point from this game which means Lampard still won't have won a game in 2023. Or indeed drawn one!! Currently looking at a goal diff of -16

Inspired signing

Arsenal did enough in the 1st half but once again poor defending by Zinchenko for the Chelsea goal.

Chelsea the sixth best club in London :astonished_face:

@Bovidae said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

Arsenal did enough in the 1st half but once again poor defending by Zinchenko for the Chelsea goal.

@Bovidae said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

Arsenal did enough in the 1st half but once again poor defending by Zinchenko for the Chelsea goal.

I am struggling to see why they are persisting with him.

What are the odds Lampard is dumped before the end of the season?

@broughie said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

I am struggling to see why they are persisting with him.

He plays as an inverted fullback, which is an important role in Arteta's attacking system. In short, Zinchenko is used as an additional midfielder. He's not a great defender though, and is often out of position because of where he is on the field (central).

@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

@canefan
You'd have thought not but they are still in 17th . All three clubs behind them have similarly difficult draws with one massive exception. Southampton play Forest next. They need Saints to win that an then all the bottom three to keep losing. If that happens (not totally unrealistic) they don't need another point to stay up.

29 points would have been enough two years ago so in theory....

Personally I think Leeds are done, maybe Big Sam can help earn them a couple of points and that could be enough..but talk about leaving it late, but looking at their next games, I can't see them winning any.

@dogmeat lol that is quite funny, earliest changes generally ok, change twice you're gooone

@Bovidae yeah, I can see his role but I don't think it's beneficial if you're sacrificing defense. He is better suited a pure midfielder and it seems to me that they have enough play makers. He tends to slow things down to.

@bayimports You look at that list and it reeks of clubs panicking.

Apart from Parker and Gerrard have any of the others really made a difference?

Obviously Lampard is also a shite Manager but Everton could still go down.

Maybe Big Sam is the answer

Big Sam is in at Leeds and talking himself up as usual. Almost exactly 25 years ago, he was celebrating taking Notts up to League 1 in a record-breaking season of 99 points and the next season Bolton came calling.

Haaland breaks the EPL scoring record with 35 in the season. Nice finish for his goal. Dixie Dean on 60 is the ultimate target - that is a true outlier as nobody else has beaten 50 goals in the top flight. And he was only 21 at the end of that season and Everton only managed 102 for the whole season - even Haaland doesn't get close to 60% of City's goals.

@dogmeat At the start of the season who would have thunk that from having Tuchel and spending big money, Chelsea would end the season with Lampard after he was sacked by Everton?

@KiwiPie said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

@dogmeat At the start of the season who would have thunk that from having Tuchel and spending big money, Chelsea would end the season with Lampard after he was sacked by Everton?

That was a weird decision let's face it. Of course my Spurs are never immune to making head scratching decisions themselves

@KiwiPie and Potter getting sacked by two premier sides in a season.. Chelseas a good chance of losing to Bournemouth this weekend as well..

@bayimports said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

@KiwiPie and Potter getting sacked by two premier sides in a season.. Chelseas a good chance of losing to Bournemouth this weekend as well..

Potter wasn't sacked twice? Brighton continues to do very well and Chelsea seem worse now

@Winger said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

@bayimports said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

@KiwiPie and Potter getting sacked by two premier sides in a season.. Chelseas a good chance of losing to Bournemouth this weekend as well..

Potter wasn't sacked twice? Brighton continues to do very well and Chelsea seem worse now

true..I should have said departed, still Potter left a Prem Club twice in a season. Brighton have continued to excel without him and are enjoyable to watch that was never in question

@bayimports

The guy that got sacked twice was Flt Sgt Parker and his acrobatic cardigan

@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

@bayimports

The guy that got sacked twice was Flt Sgt Parker and his acrobatic cardigan

ha ha, although he was right that Bournemouth needed a cash injection of which Maxim Demin didn't want to continue..but I am glad GON changed the way we played

edit: no question both Fulham and Bournemouth improved after he left

Chelsea scored 3x as many goals today as they did in all of April.

Woo. Hoo.

For those following the Notts County saga - what a difference a year makes

@KiwiPie Leaving it a bit late...

@dogmeat Glad I slept through it all to be honest.

Final v Chesterfield next weekend. Local rivals as well and no love lost etc.

The Newcastle-Arsenal game was a good watch, and physical. It had a bit of everything - VAR overturning an early penalty (correctly), shots hitting the posts/crossbar, great saves from both goalkeepers, and the right result.

@Bovidae said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

VAR overturning an early penalty (correctly),

Had to happen sooner or later

@dogmeat said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

@Bovidae said in EPL 2022 / 2023:

VAR overturning an early penalty (correctly),

Had to happen sooner or later

It was a very poor reason to overturn a ref's decision - just because it didn't hit his hand.

Not entirely sure why Lindelof's handball wasn't referred back to the ref to take a look. They seemed to interpret it as not making his body shape bigger despite the fact he moved his hand towards the ball. Very odd. Top 4 race is all on now - although Liverpool do have to keep winning and hoping those above drop more points

@Bovidae Agree on the penalty and first because it hit his leg and second it was obvious, unlike with McGuire, he was trying to get his arm out of the way. The physical nature of the game was good for Arsenal and shows them what they need. But Jorginho!!! Despise the dramatics.