@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@Bovidae said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Kaino was shorter than Read.
Maybe I’ve got those heights the wrong way around. Can someone confirm their heights?
Just more bullshit heights listed.
I'm sure half of them are just estimated. Badly. Pasilo Tosi is the latest, obviously got measured by the same guy who did Kaino.
@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.
Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.
- Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
- Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
- Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg
Would be surprising for Rennie to pick a first-choice trio with such inexperienced players but think the balance is right. Flanders is definitely putting his hand up for selection this year.
@Mr-Fish said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.
Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.
- Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
- Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
- Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg
Would be surprising for Rennie to pick a first-choice trio with such inexperienced players but think the balance is right. Flanders is definitely putting his hand up for selection this year.
Lacking volume of ruck work and tackling for me (as a trio).
@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
If the numbers on the jersey mean anything, this is the current thinking of the SR coaches
I do think the numbers matter, for roles within the attacking structure, but how players fill in that specific role can still vary greatly.
Take Segner, for example. He had the 7 on his back for the Blues this weekend. The Blues are putting their openside out wide on attack this year, with the 6 (Clark) and 8 (Wrampling-Alec) playing through the middle, both carrying and cleaning in that area. As a result, the openside barely figures at the attacking breakdown, with Segner attending just 5 attacking rucks throughout the 2nd half, with two of those resulting in ruck turnovers (to Numia and Kirifi, I believe).
Still, being put out wide doesn’t necessarily mean becoming a non-factor at the attacking breakdown. If you compare how Segner approached that role to how Papali’i played there in the opening round against the Chiefs, you’ll see that the 37 Test All Black gets more involved at ruck time, attending 11 attacking rucks during his 2nd half of that game (he also disrupted 5 defensive breakdowns in that period, compared to just 2 by Segner). When Papali’i noticed low numbers at the attacking breakdown, he would move away from the edge to assist securing the ball, something Segner barely did.
So I would say the numbers indicate something but not everything; there’s still a lot of variation in individual approaches to the jersey across the SRP teams (Lakai versus Iose as the Hurricanes number 8 would be another clear example of different approaches to the same role). I think someone like Segner probably needs to move away from structure a bit more, especially when the attacking breakdown is put under a lot of pressure like it was in the Canes game. But that’s something that comes with experience, I think.
As a result, I don't think you can just transfer SRP roles to Test rugby. You probably have to look at skillsets and on-field output from the individual player, and try to fit those pieces into your forward pack puzzle. As I've said above, I think Segner would probably come more into consideration as a blindside for Rennie, due to his lineout prowess and defensive breakdown ability.
And here is what Dave is working with right now
Seems to like Costley, always goes the full 80.
Cant say I have ever seen him play. He is Japan qualified.
Apparently a Warner Dearns type, tho he fancies himself as an open-side!
Tubua and Costley have height.
Tubua, also Japan qualified, never goes the full distance.
Funaki provides the bulk; and comes on later to throw it around. Rarely goes more than 30 minutes.
And we all know everything about the 7.
Ardie is going the full distance, or close to, every game.
Pretty sure Dave is going to at least start with something like this.
I'd be very surprised if we don't see a player who has at the very least covered lock before starting in Rennie's loose forward trio.
Finau still has to prove he's got a bit of industry about him so the smart money's on Vaa'i starting at 6.
@Mauss I'd argue that numbers matter most at scrum time. 7 rather speaks for itself. 6 must be rock solid on blindside defence (an area where Vaa'i was exposed). 8 needs to be able to operate behind retreating scrum and needs strong impetus.
Regarding lineout, to me one loosie needs to be elite, but doesnt't matter if it's 6 or 8.
For me, at top level Jacobson, RD and Lakai are 7s.
Leading contenders for 6 are probably Flanders, Finau and Parker (for heft).
That leaves 8 a bit up in air. With Finau at 6, lineout covered, which opens things up for a Sititi. But if the 6 isn't a lineout banker, then 8 needs to be. Sotutu would have been very handy to have in squad.
@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
And here is what Dave is working with right now
Seems to like Costley, always goes the full 80.
Cant say I have ever seen him play. He is Japan qualified.
Apparently a Warner Dearns type, tho he fancies himself as an open-side!
Tubua and Costley have height.
Tubua, also Japan qualified, never goes the full distance.
Funaki provides the bulk; and comes on later to throw it around. Rarely goes more than 30 minutes.
And we all know everything about the 7.
Ardie is going the full distance, or close to, every game.Pretty sure Dave is going to at least start with something like this.
What's nice about that chart, is the clarity of it. There are no players switching position every 2nd game.
@reprobate and 10/14 games the same trio started as well, sure injuries play a part, but the point remains, he seems clear on what he needs from his loosies
@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.
Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.
- Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
- Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
- Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg
This would be my picks moving forward and I would give them a full year to settle in within what injuries allow
@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
If the numbers on the jersey mean anything, this is the current thinking of the SR coaches
I do think the numbers matter, for roles within the attacking structure, but how players fill in that specific role can still vary greatly.
Take Segner, for example. He had the 7 on his back for the Blues this weekend. The Blues are putting their openside out wide on attack this year, with the 6 (Clark) and 8 (Wrampling-Alec) playing through the middle, both carrying and cleaning in that area. As a result, the openside barely figures at the attacking breakdown, with Segner attending just 5 attacking rucks throughout the 2nd half, with two of those resulting in ruck turnovers (to Numia and Kirifi, I believe).
Still, being put out wide doesn’t necessarily mean becoming a non-factor at the attacking breakdown. If you compare how Segner approached that role to how Papali’i played there in the opening round against the Chiefs, you’ll see that the 37 Test All Black gets more involved at ruck time, attending 11 attacking rucks during his 2nd half of that game (he also disrupted 5 defensive breakdowns in that period, compared to just 2 by Segner). When Papali’i noticed low numbers at the attacking breakdown, he would move away from the edge to assist securing the ball, something Segner barely did.
So I would say the numbers indicate something but not everything; there’s still a lot of variation in individual approaches to the jersey across the SRP teams (Lakai versus Iose as the Hurricanes number 8 would be another clear example of different approaches to the same role). I think someone like Segner probably needs to move away from structure a bit more, especially when the attacking breakdown is put under a lot of pressure like it was in the Canes game. But that’s something that comes with experience, I think.
As a result, I don't think you can just transfer SRP roles to Test rugby. You probably have to look at skillsets and on-field output from the individual player, and try to fit those pieces into your forward pack puzzle. As I've said above, I think Segner would probably come more into consideration as a blindside for Rennie, due to his lineout prowess and defensive breakdown ability.
I don't think it's in Segners nature to hit a tonne of rucks. His natural instinct at 7 is to play more a Savea style role. He likes to pilfer and probably lacks the physicality, technique and size to have same impact as Papali'i when needed. He can be effective ball in hand out wide as we saw but I'd prefer to see our centres, fullbacks, and wings making those types of runs and Segner securing the ball.
As a Blues fan I don't think he should be in the convo for the ABs yet. He's not even necessarily a first choice loose forward this year when all are fit at the Blues.
@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
I'd argue that numbers matter most at scrum time. 7 rather speaks for itself. 6 must be rock solid on blindside defence (an area where Vaa'i was exposed). 8 needs to be able to operate behind retreating scrum and needs strong impetus.
Regarding lineout, to me one loosie needs to be elite, but doesnt't matter if it's 6 or 8.
For me, at top level Jacobson, RD and Lakai are 7s.
Leading contenders for 6 are probably Flanders, Finau and Parker (for heft).
That leaves 8 a bit up in air. With Finau at 6, lineout covered, which opens things up for a Sititi. But if the 6 isn't a lineout banker, then 8 needs to be. Sotutu would have been very handy to have in squad.
Everything comes back to the scrum with you, eh? I’d agree in principle but teams don’t seem to take those different loose forward roles into much account these days. Did you see Fainga’anuku pack down at 8 against the Reds on the weekend? Poor guy didn’t have a clue what he was doing.
I also saw Lee packing down at blindside against Moana while wearing 7, with Blackadder on the openside despite wearing 6. The Blues loose forwards have also regularly switched where they bind at the scrum throughout the game, depending on the in-game situation. So a lot of it is very pragmatic, with different loose forwards fulfilling different roles, whether it’s at the scrum or around the field.
As for the lineout, I do think its preferable to have 4 genuine options in the back five at Test level. Having both Finau and Flanders in the loose forward trio would be useful in this regard but both of them are at their best out wide. If you add Savea to this, then you’re asking a whole lot (too much, I think) of your tight five in terms of the carry and clean through the middle. So, with Rennie, I think it’s going to be either Finau or Flanders at blindside and Savea most likely at openside.
Number 8 is probably, like you say, the most difficult position to fill. Another lineout option, who is a high-volume carrier while preferably having a high work rate at the breakdown as well. I don’t really see anyone who fits that profile across the SRP teams right now.
Where is Kieran Read when you need him? I was trying to find some stats on Read’s carrying numbers and came across this from 2020, when they selected the NZ SR team of the decade. “Kieran Read gets the nod at No.8 having gained the most metres (3,131) from the most carries (892) of any No.8 and was also one of only two such players to make 800+ tackles.” (link: https://super.rugby/superrugby/news/nz-super-rugby-team-of-the-decade/) This while also being one of the best lineout forwards of his generation. Pretty useful player and it's really no wonder the ABs didn't have to worry about loose forward balance for so long when he was around.
The most intriguing option right now, I think, is if Sititi can regain some of his 2024 form. During that SRP season, the Chiefs number 8 averaged 15.8 carries, 15.8 tackles (87% success), 3.3 defenders beaten, 1.3 lineouts won, and 51.4 post-contact metres per 80 minutes. According to Opta’s 2024 Stats Hub, he had a dominant carry percentage of 54.7%, reaching the gainline at 64.9% of the time and evading tacklers for 19.9% of his carries. On attack, he cleaned around 12 rucks per game at 87% effectiveness, while attending around 5 defensive rucks per game as well. Statistically, I still think it’s one of the better No. 8 seasons that we’ve seen recently.
Unfortunately, he’s fallen off since then, due to injury issues and an inability to quickly regain form. 2024 might’ve been a blip for Sititi, both at SR and at Test level, as he wasn’t able to reach the same standard in 2025. Still, a fit and firing Sititi would be a great option for the ABs to have in 2026.
@Mauss On Sititi, he was really bloody good in 2024 - but for the ABs, he was playing pretty wide himself wasn't he? His best games were all at 6 rather than 8. He's got a good workrate, and good quick feet at the line which means he is a hard guy to knock backwards one-on-one, but to me looked to not quite have the bulk to be as effective in close. Certainly struggled post-injury, but I think also being asked to play in closer at 8.
@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
On Sititi, he was really bloody good in 2024 - but for the ABs, he was playing pretty wide himself wasn't he? His best games were all at 6 rather than 8. He's got a good workrate, and good quick feet at the line which means he is a hard guy to knock backwards one-on-one, but to me looked to not quite have the bulk to be as effective in close. Certainly struggled post-injury, but I think also being asked to play in closer at 8.
Yeah, all fair points. I do think Sititi, at 113kg, is bulky enough to consistently make inroads in tight but I could see Rennie looking to go for an even bigger unit. He's using Raratubua (1m95, 120kg) at No. 8 for Kobe, who typically plays at lock for Japan. He's getting impressive output from the Fijian (13.8 tackles and 13.8 carries per 80) which is more volume than what the current bulky locks and loose forwards amongst the NZ SRP teams are able to produce.
I suppose he could pick a big unit and hope that they become more productive for the ABs but it's rather rare for a player to actually tackle and carry more at Test level than the level below.
Then again, Rennie does like to push strength and conditioning for his players. That's probably where the biggest surplus value for the ABs still lies, to get big players like Tamaiti Williams, Tosi, Finau, Parker, to up their involvements. Might see a few injuries, though, I remember the Wallabies under his tenure continuously breaking in training.
@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Everything comes back to the scrum with you, eh? I’d agree in principle but teams don’t seem to take those different loose forward roles into much account these days. Did you see Fainga’anuku pack down at 8 against the Reds on the weekend? Poor guy didn’t have a clue what he was doing.
I agree.
There are not a lot of scrums as compared to breakdowns/rucks.
There are huge number of breakdowns, multiples every minute when the ball is in play.
Coaches will be much more concerned with what their looseforwards are doing in that facet of the game.
And not just the looseforwards, tight forwards as well.
So long as you win your own ball at scrum time, coaches probably dont care about it that much.
Hence letting Leicester get involved.
When a coach goes 6 forwards on the bench, the extraman is always a loosie.
@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Everything comes back to the scrum with you, eh? I’d agree in principle but teams don’t seem to take those different loose forward roles into much account these days. Did you see Fainga’anuku pack down at 8 against the Reds on the weekend? Poor guy didn’t have a clue what he was doing.
I agree.
There are not a lot of scrums as compared to breakdowns/rucks.
There are huge number of breakdowns, multiples every minute when the ball is in play.
Coaches will be much more concerned with what their looseforwards are doing in that facet of the game.
And not just the looseforwards, tight forwards as well.
So long as you win your own ball at scrum time, coaches probably dont care about it that much.
Hence letting Leicester get involved.
When a coach goes 6 forwards on the bench, the extraman is always a loosie.
Yes, but the other side of that is the breakdown consequences are less. If your scrum is monstered and penalised repeatedly, that is a huge disadvantage in possession and territory every time. No team is going to lose 20% of their own breakdowns, whereas a team could lose 50% of their scrums and be penalised at will on opposition scrums. And no team can gain a breakdown penalty at will.
So while just winning your own ball is enough for sure, achieving that against the best scrumming teams isn't an insignificant effort - being worse than that is quite common if it isn't given enough focus, and the consequences can be game defining.
@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:
Yes, but the other side of that is the breakdown consequences are less. If your scrum is monstered and penalised repeatedly, that is a huge disadvantage in possession and territory every time. No team is going to lose 20% of their own breakdowns, whereas a team could lose 50% of their scrums and be penalised at will on opposition scrums. And no team can gain a breakdown penalty at will.
So while just winning your own ball is enough for sure, achieving that against the best scrumming teams isn't an insignificant effort - being worse than that is quite common if it isn't given enough focus, and the consequences can be game defining.
Agree with all that.
Any coach that neglects the scrum is not going to win many games.
And a lot of time has to be put into it in training.
The thing is tho; at the elite level now, all scrums are good, and it is difficult for one team to get dominance.
It's like they are cancelling each other out.
Even the best can mess one up, but generally teams all win their own put in at scrum time.
So, while a lot of work has to go into it at training, come game-day it is not now deciding the outcome.
Have not checked the stats, but I know that some teams have been awarded less than 5 scrums in a game.
Kinda crazy that all that effort at training results in less than 5 possessions at game time (and they already had the ball).
The breakdown is where the game is to decided.
There can be over 200 of those in a game.
They are very dynamic, and all have to be contested.
How you deploy your players, and what they do, in that facet of the game is now paramount.