AB Blindside - past, present & future

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

In terms of Parker I saw him as a potential AB last year however I do think that if Blackadder is fit he is likely to be in the squad as the starting 6 with Savea at 7 and Sititi at 8. Jason Ryan loves him some Blackadder and I can't see him looking past him. Personally I'd like to see someone like Parker in the squad over Blackadder but I'll be shocked if it happens.

Haig hasn't had a lot of game time this year. I do think there is a place for Finau and Parker in the squad.

I don't see Razor and co going for a tight 6 under their game plan. They picked Blackadder, Finau, and Sititi as starters last year. They're looking for mobile guys.

In terms of workrate Finau, Parker and Haig are very much alike compared to Blackadder. Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks. With regards to Blackadder the coaches seem to be more interested in volume as opposed to actual impact. He's always been a high volume low impact guy.

Contact Involvements per 80 Minutes Loose Forwards ( Carries + Tackles + Rucks )
69.25 Ethan Blackadder
61.62 Corey Kellow
61.0 Tom Christie
58.87 Dalton Papali'i
58.51 Du'Plessis Kirifi
58.41 Sean Withy
56.02 Jahrome Brown
54.84 Peter Lakai
53.63 Ardie Savea
52.35 Vaiolini Ekuasi
52.17 Luke Jacobson
50.6 Cullen Grace
48.87 Christian Lio-Willie
48.33 Brayden Iose
47.89 Kaylum Boshier
47.36 Hugh Renton
45.14 Hoskins Sotutu
44.21 Simon Parker
42.27 Oliver Haig
39.32 Samipeni Finau

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Rucks Per 80 minutes
35.24 Dalton Papali'i
35.19 Ethan Blackadder
33.57 Sean Withy
31.78 Corey Kellow
31.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
29.68 Tom Christie
29.13 Jahrome Brown
27.87 Ardie Savea
26.91 Luke Jacobson
25.77 Peter Lakai
25.44 Kaylum Boshier
23.85 Cullen Grace
23.35 Simon Parker
22.39 Vaiolini Ekuasi
21.74 Oliver Haig
20.72 Christian Lio-Willie
20.28 Samipeni Finau
20.0 Brayden Iose
19.95 Hoskins Sotutu
16.75 Hugh Renton

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Attacking Ruck Effectiveness
91.8% Samipeni Finau
91.3% Tom Christie
90.2% Dalton Papali'i
90.2% Vaiolini Ekuasi
88.1% Ardie Savea
87.8% Peter Lakai
87.6% Jahrome Brown
86.9% Christian Lio-Willie
85.9% Hoskins Sotutu
85.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi
85.2% Brayden Iose
85.1% Luke Jacobson
85.0% Sean Withy
84.5% Corey Kellow
84.5% Oliver Haig
83.1% Simon Parker
82.6% Hugh Renton
81.9% Cullen Grace
81.5% Ethan Blackadder
77.3% Kaylum Boshier

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Defensive Ruck Effectiveness
29.6% Simon Parker
23.9% Luke Jacobson
23.1% Kaylum Boshier
22.4% Du'Plessis Kirifi
21.9% Samipeni Finau
20.1% Ardie Savea
17.6% Cullen Grace
17.3% Dalton Papali'i
16.1% Tom Christie
15.2% Jahrome Brown
14.8% Christian Lio-Willie
14.7% Sean Withy
13.1% Peter Lakai
12.1% Hoskins Sotutu
12.0% Corey Kellow
11.8% Vaiolini Ekuasi
9.1% Brayden Iose
8.3% Hugh Renton
7.4% Ethan Blackadder
0.0% Oliver Haig

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Dominant Tackle %
16.5% Simon Parker
11.5% Samipeni Finau
8.0% Hugh Renton
7.9% Ardie Savea
7.1% Brayden Iose
6.2% Christian Lio-Willie
6.0% Ethan Blackadder
5.8% Hoskins Sotutu
5.5% Peter Lakai
5.3% Sean Withy
4.4% Kaylum Boshier
4.4% Corey Kellow
4.3% Du'Plessis Kirifi
4.2% Luke Jacobson
3.5% Jahrome Brown
3.4% Cullen Grace
3.3% Tom Christie
3.3% Dalton Papali'i
2.0% Oliver Haig
0.0% Vaiolini Ekuasi

Stats from Opta theanalyst.

2026 stats would be interesting.

Well Parker turned out to be a dud at test level so far. Though for me it was more 7 that was the real problem position last year particularly in defence.

@brodean Not sure I'd agree with such a stark conclusion.
Sure, he's not in conventional highlights reels. But if you treat him as a blunt instrument, to be used appropriately, I think he added to ABs.
His role as a strong cleaner and mauler, added to workmanlike running and tackling, IMO was a valuable element of our comprehensive win in Boks I last year. Worth noting that PSDT was noticeably subdued in that one.
Not a good scrummager.
He'd be in my AB squad, even though not starring at 8 for Chiefs.

I dunno about Parker. He's certainly big enough, but he's not exactly explosive and it's not often that he runs at the line with real intent - so I'm not sure his gainline success in Super translates to running at guys his own size at test level. If you take the Mauss categories, for me he ends up looking a bit neither high impact or high workrate really.
He tends to rumble forwards rather than go backwards though, and is good at binding on other players to help grab an extra few metres. A big body and solid tackler in close who doesn't get knocked backwards is valuable, but I think he might get exposed in space as his feet look a bit on the slow side. Does some good things, generally cleans well too, and could be part of the puzzle I guess, but I'm not convinced yet.

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

it's not often that he runs at the line with real intent

sadly that is true of so many in NZ rugby.

I've always thought Parker lacked a bit of spark, mongrel and aggro, if he could add that and up his workrate a little, he could be exceptional, has the tools, just need them used correctly.

I had high hopes for Parker.
So far.....just another Reuben Thorne, if that.

I agree – a lot of the loose forwards at the moment fall into two camps: explosive but undersized, or big-bodied but not especially dynamic. The balance isn’t quite right. Ideally, you want players who can bring both – size and impact – or at least a trio that combines to give you that presence.

The worst thing they could do is keep stacking the loose forward unit with multiple smaller players and hope their energy makes up for it. It might work in patches, but against top sides, it leaves them short on physicality.

The bigger players are the key. They don’t necessarily need replacing – they need to lift their work rate and/or physical intent. If they can bring more edge and urgency, the pack can be both powerful and dynamic, rather than one or the other.

@ShaquilleOatmeal said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I agree – a lot of the loose forwards at the moment fall into two camps: explosive but undersized, or big-bodied but not especially dynamic. The balance isn’t quite right. Ideally, you want players who can bring both – size and impact – or at least a trio that combines to give you that presence.

The worst thing they could do is keep stacking the loose forward unit with multiple smaller players and hope their energy makes up for it. It might work in patches, but against top sides, it leaves them short on physicality.

The bigger players are the key. They don’t necessarily need replacing – they need to lift their work rate and/or physical intent. If they can bring more edge and urgency, the pack can be both powerful and dynamic, rather than one or the other.

Finau is big and explosive. Most photos of him next to Tupou Vaa'i suggest he is the same height and probably a bit heavier.

Yeah, and the other thing is effective use of the bench e.g. get a Finau to play 40 mins and empty the tank with 10 hard carries, vs what we often see with bringing an EB/LJ/DP type on for 20 minutes at the end when a big part of their strength and the reason they are selected is huge workrate over 80. Don't sub those guys or use them as subs. Use the big fellas, and don't put up with them fading in and out of the game over 80.

On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.

Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.

6. Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
7. Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
8. Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg

@Canes4life although I expect #7 Ardie Savea

Kaino was shorter than Read.

@Bovidae said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Kaino was shorter than Read.

View image

Maybe I’ve got those heights the wrong way around. Can someone confirm their heights?

@taniwharugby said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Canes4life although I expect #7 Ardie Savea

Most likely will happen. Lakai and him can simply swap around if that’s the case.

@Bovidae said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Kaino was shorter than Read.

View image

If they are similar in height and weight, the size of their motor and their mongrel level are more important. No point in being big when you have a pea sized heart

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Yeah, and the other thing is effective use of the bench e.g. get a Finau to play 40 mins and empty the tank with 10 hard carries, vs what we often see with bringing an EB/LJ/DP type on for 20 minutes at the end when a big part of their strength and the reason they are selected is huge workrate over 80. Don't sub those guys or use them as subs. Use the big fellas, and don't put up with them fading in and out of the game over 80.

This was part of Robertson’s conservative approach to selection - the bench existed mainly to cover early injuries, with no real consideration of alternative uses.

So has Opta not added Super Rugby stats to the Club Stats because its been deemed not even worth bothering with?

@canefan said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Bovidae said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Kaino was shorter than Read.

View image

If they are similar in height and weight, the size of their motor and their mongrel level are more important. No point in being big when you have a pea sized heart

It's about making the jersey better

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

So has Opta not added Super Rugby stats to the Club Stats because its been deemed not even worth bothering with?

Dunno eh, those stats were good. Someone who is on twitter could send him a message and find out.

If the numbers on the jersey mean anything, this is the current thinking of the SR coaches

Blues

Chiefs

Crusaders

Highlanders

Hurricanes

@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Bovidae said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Kaino was shorter than Read.

View image

Maybe I’ve got those heights the wrong way around. Can someone confirm their heights?

Just more bullshit heights listed.

I'm sure half of them are just estimated. Badly. Pasilo Tosi is the latest, obviously got measured by the same guy who did Kaino.

@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.

Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.

6. Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
7. Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
8. Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg

Would be surprising for Rennie to pick a first-choice trio with such inexperienced players but think the balance is right. Flanders is definitely putting his hand up for selection this year.

@Mr-Fish said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.

Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.

6. Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
7. Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
8. Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg

Would be surprising for Rennie to pick a first-choice trio with such inexperienced players but think the balance is right. Flanders is definitely putting his hand up for selection this year.

Lacking volume of ruck work and tackling for me (as a trio).

@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

If the numbers on the jersey mean anything, this is the current thinking of the SR coaches

I do think the numbers matter, for roles within the attacking structure, but how players fill in that specific role can still vary greatly.

Take Segner, for example. He had the 7 on his back for the Blues this weekend. The Blues are putting their openside out wide on attack this year, with the 6 (Clark) and 8 (Wrampling-Alec) playing through the middle, both carrying and cleaning in that area. As a result, the openside barely figures at the attacking breakdown, with Segner attending just 5 attacking rucks throughout the 2nd half, with two of those resulting in ruck turnovers (to Numia and Kirifi, I believe).

Still, being put out wide doesn’t necessarily mean becoming a non-factor at the attacking breakdown. If you compare how Segner approached that role to how Papali’i played there in the opening round against the Chiefs, you’ll see that the 37 Test All Black gets more involved at ruck time, attending 11 attacking rucks during his 2nd half of that game (he also disrupted 5 defensive breakdowns in that period, compared to just 2 by Segner). When Papali’i noticed low numbers at the attacking breakdown, he would move away from the edge to assist securing the ball, something Segner barely did.

So I would say the numbers indicate something but not everything; there’s still a lot of variation in individual approaches to the jersey across the SRP teams (Lakai versus Iose as the Hurricanes number 8 would be another clear example of different approaches to the same role). I think someone like Segner probably needs to move away from structure a bit more, especially when the attacking breakdown is put under a lot of pressure like it was in the Canes game. But that’s something that comes with experience, I think.

As a result, I don't think you can just transfer SRP roles to Test rugby. You probably have to look at skillsets and on-field output from the individual player, and try to fit those pieces into your forward pack puzzle. As I've said above, I think Segner would probably come more into consideration as a blindside for Rennie, due to his lineout prowess and defensive breakdown ability.

And here is what Dave is working with right now

Seems to like Costley, always goes the full 80.
Cant say I have ever seen him play. He is Japan qualified.
Apparently a Warner Dearns type, tho he fancies himself as an open-side!
Tubua and Costley have height.
Tubua, also Japan qualified, never goes the full distance.
Funaki provides the bulk; and comes on later to throw it around. Rarely goes more than 30 minutes.
And we all know everything about the 7.
Ardie is going the full distance, or close to, every game.

Pretty sure Dave is going to at least start with something like this.

I'd be very surprised if we don't see a player who has at the very least covered lock before starting in Rennie's loose forward trio.

Finau still has to prove he's got a bit of industry about him so the smart money's on Vaa'i starting at 6.

@Mauss I'd argue that numbers matter most at scrum time. 7 rather speaks for itself. 6 must be rock solid on blindside defence (an area where Vaa'i was exposed). 8 needs to be able to operate behind retreating scrum and needs strong impetus.

Regarding lineout, to me one loosie needs to be elite, but doesnt't matter if it's 6 or 8.

For me, at top level Jacobson, RD and Lakai are 7s.

Leading contenders for 6 are probably Flanders, Finau and Parker (for heft).

That leaves 8 a bit up in air. With Finau at 6, lineout covered, which opens things up for a Sititi. But if the 6 isn't a lineout banker, then 8 needs to be. Sotutu would have been very handy to have in squad.

@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

And here is what Dave is working with right now

View image

Seems to like Costley, always goes the full 80.
Cant say I have ever seen him play. He is Japan qualified.
Apparently a Warner Dearns type, tho he fancies himself as an open-side!
Tubua and Costley have height.
Tubua, also Japan qualified, never goes the full distance.
Funaki provides the bulk; and comes on later to throw it around. Rarely goes more than 30 minutes.
And we all know everything about the 7.
Ardie is going the full distance, or close to, every game.

Pretty sure Dave is going to at least start with something like this.

What's nice about that chart, is the clarity of it. There are no players switching position every 2nd game.

@reprobate and 10/14 games the same trio started as well, sure injuries play a part, but the point remains, he seems clear on what he needs from his loosies

@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.

Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.

6. Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
7. Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
8. Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg

This would be my picks moving forward and I would give them a full year to settle in within what injuries allow

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

If the numbers on the jersey mean anything, this is the current thinking of the SR coaches

I do think the numbers matter, for roles within the attacking structure, but how players fill in that specific role can still vary greatly.

Take Segner, for example. He had the 7 on his back for the Blues this weekend. The Blues are putting their openside out wide on attack this year, with the 6 (Clark) and 8 (Wrampling-Alec) playing through the middle, both carrying and cleaning in that area. As a result, the openside barely figures at the attacking breakdown, with Segner attending just 5 attacking rucks throughout the 2nd half, with two of those resulting in ruck turnovers (to Numia and Kirifi, I believe).

Still, being put out wide doesn’t necessarily mean becoming a non-factor at the attacking breakdown. If you compare how Segner approached that role to how Papali’i played there in the opening round against the Chiefs, you’ll see that the 37 Test All Black gets more involved at ruck time, attending 11 attacking rucks during his 2nd half of that game (he also disrupted 5 defensive breakdowns in that period, compared to just 2 by Segner). When Papali’i noticed low numbers at the attacking breakdown, he would move away from the edge to assist securing the ball, something Segner barely did.

So I would say the numbers indicate something but not everything; there’s still a lot of variation in individual approaches to the jersey across the SRP teams (Lakai versus Iose as the Hurricanes number 8 would be another clear example of different approaches to the same role). I think someone like Segner probably needs to move away from structure a bit more, especially when the attacking breakdown is put under a lot of pressure like it was in the Canes game. But that’s something that comes with experience, I think.

As a result, I don't think you can just transfer SRP roles to Test rugby. You probably have to look at skillsets and on-field output from the individual player, and try to fit those pieces into your forward pack puzzle. As I've said above, I think Segner would probably come more into consideration as a blindside for Rennie, due to his lineout prowess and defensive breakdown ability.

I don't think it's in Segners nature to hit a tonne of rucks. His natural instinct at 7 is to play more a Savea style role. He likes to pilfer and probably lacks the physicality, technique and size to have same impact as Papali'i when needed. He can be effective ball in hand out wide as we saw but I'd prefer to see our centres, fullbacks, and wings making those types of runs and Segner securing the ball.

As a Blues fan I don't think he should be in the convo for the ABs yet. He's not even necessarily a first choice loose forward this year when all are fit at the Blues.

@brodean yeah I've been surprised at the praise, I've been hoping to see him at 7 and thought he had a busy game, but it wasn't a nuggety 7 out there.

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I'd argue that numbers matter most at scrum time. 7 rather speaks for itself. 6 must be rock solid on blindside defence (an area where Vaa'i was exposed). 8 needs to be able to operate behind retreating scrum and needs strong impetus.

Regarding lineout, to me one loosie needs to be elite, but doesnt't matter if it's 6 or 8.

For me, at top level Jacobson, RD and Lakai are 7s.

Leading contenders for 6 are probably Flanders, Finau and Parker (for heft).

That leaves 8 a bit up in air. With Finau at 6, lineout covered, which opens things up for a Sititi. But if the 6 isn't a lineout banker, then 8 needs to be. Sotutu would have been very handy to have in squad.

Everything comes back to the scrum with you, eh? I’d agree in principle but teams don’t seem to take those different loose forward roles into much account these days. Did you see Fainga’anuku pack down at 8 against the Reds on the weekend? Poor guy didn’t have a clue what he was doing.

I also saw Lee packing down at blindside against Moana while wearing 7, with Blackadder on the openside despite wearing 6. The Blues loose forwards have also regularly switched where they bind at the scrum throughout the game, depending on the in-game situation. So a lot of it is very pragmatic, with different loose forwards fulfilling different roles, whether it’s at the scrum or around the field.

As for the lineout, I do think its preferable to have 4 genuine options in the back five at Test level. Having both Finau and Flanders in the loose forward trio would be useful in this regard but both of them are at their best out wide. If you add Savea to this, then you’re asking a whole lot (too much, I think) of your tight five in terms of the carry and clean through the middle. So, with Rennie, I think it’s going to be either Finau or Flanders at blindside and Savea most likely at openside.

Number 8 is probably, like you say, the most difficult position to fill. Another lineout option, who is a high-volume carrier while preferably having a high work rate at the breakdown as well. I don’t really see anyone who fits that profile across the SRP teams right now.

Where is Kieran Read when you need him? I was trying to find some stats on Read’s carrying numbers and came across this from 2020, when they selected the NZ SR team of the decade. “Kieran Read gets the nod at No.8 having gained the most metres (3,131) from the most carries (892) of any No.8 and was also one of only two such players to make 800+ tackles.” (link: https://super.rugby/superrugby/news/nz-super-rugby-team-of-the-decade/) This while also being one of the best lineout forwards of his generation. Pretty useful player and it's really no wonder the ABs didn't have to worry about loose forward balance for so long when he was around.

The most intriguing option right now, I think, is if Sititi can regain some of his 2024 form. During that SRP season, the Chiefs number 8 averaged 15.8 carries, 15.8 tackles (87% success), 3.3 defenders beaten, 1.3 lineouts won, and 51.4 post-contact metres per 80 minutes. According to Opta’s 2024 Stats Hub, he had a dominant carry percentage of 54.7%, reaching the gainline at 64.9% of the time and evading tacklers for 19.9% of his carries. On attack, he cleaned around 12 rucks per game at 87% effectiveness, while attending around 5 defensive rucks per game as well. Statistically, I still think it’s one of the better No. 8 seasons that we’ve seen recently.

Unfortunately, he’s fallen off since then, due to injury issues and an inability to quickly regain form. 2024 might’ve been a blip for Sititi, both at SR and at Test level, as he wasn’t able to reach the same standard in 2025. Still, a fit and firing Sititi would be a great option for the ABs to have in 2026.

@Mauss On Sititi, he was really bloody good in 2024 - but for the ABs, he was playing pretty wide himself wasn't he? His best games were all at 6 rather than 8. He's got a good workrate, and good quick feet at the line which means he is a hard guy to knock backwards one-on-one, but to me looked to not quite have the bulk to be as effective in close. Certainly struggled post-injury, but I think also being asked to play in closer at 8.

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

On Sititi, he was really bloody good in 2024 - but for the ABs, he was playing pretty wide himself wasn't he? His best games were all at 6 rather than 8. He's got a good workrate, and good quick feet at the line which means he is a hard guy to knock backwards one-on-one, but to me looked to not quite have the bulk to be as effective in close. Certainly struggled post-injury, but I think also being asked to play in closer at 8.

Yeah, all fair points. I do think Sititi, at 113kg, is bulky enough to consistently make inroads in tight but I could see Rennie looking to go for an even bigger unit. He's using Raratubua (1m95, 120kg) at No. 8 for Kobe, who typically plays at lock for Japan. He's getting impressive output from the Fijian (13.8 tackles and 13.8 carries per 80) which is more volume than what the current bulky locks and loose forwards amongst the NZ SRP teams are able to produce.

I suppose he could pick a big unit and hope that they become more productive for the ABs but it's rather rare for a player to actually tackle and carry more at Test level than the level below.

Then again, Rennie does like to push strength and conditioning for his players. That's probably where the biggest surplus value for the ABs still lies, to get big players like Tamaiti Williams, Tosi, Finau, Parker, to up their involvements. Might see a few injuries, though, I remember the Wallabies under his tenure continuously breaking in training.

Watch Rennie run Finau at 6 and Vaa'i at 8. You heard it here first.

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Everything comes back to the scrum with you, eh? I’d agree in principle but teams don’t seem to take those different loose forward roles into much account these days. Did you see Fainga’anuku pack down at 8 against the Reds on the weekend? Poor guy didn’t have a clue what he was doing.

I agree.
There are not a lot of scrums as compared to breakdowns/rucks.
There are huge number of breakdowns, multiples every minute when the ball is in play.
Coaches will be much more concerned with what their looseforwards are doing in that facet of the game.
And not just the looseforwards, tight forwards as well.
So long as you win your own ball at scrum time, coaches probably dont care about it that much.
Hence letting Leicester get involved.
When a coach goes 6 forwards on the bench, the extraman is always a loosie.

@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Everything comes back to the scrum with you, eh? I’d agree in principle but teams don’t seem to take those different loose forward roles into much account these days. Did you see Fainga’anuku pack down at 8 against the Reds on the weekend? Poor guy didn’t have a clue what he was doing.

I agree.
There are not a lot of scrums as compared to breakdowns/rucks.
There are huge number of breakdowns, multiples every minute when the ball is in play.
Coaches will be much more concerned with what their looseforwards are doing in that facet of the game.
And not just the looseforwards, tight forwards as well.
So long as you win your own ball at scrum time, coaches probably dont care about it that much.
Hence letting Leicester get involved.
When a coach goes 6 forwards on the bench, the extraman is always a loosie.

Yes, but the other side of that is the breakdown consequences are less. If your scrum is monstered and penalised repeatedly, that is a huge disadvantage in possession and territory every time. No team is going to lose 20% of their own breakdowns, whereas a team could lose 50% of their scrums and be penalised at will on opposition scrums. And no team can gain a breakdown penalty at will.
So while just winning your own ball is enough for sure, achieving that against the best scrumming teams isn't an insignificant effort - being worse than that is quite common if it isn't given enough focus, and the consequences can be game defining.

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Yes, but the other side of that is the breakdown consequences are less. If your scrum is monstered and penalised repeatedly, that is a huge disadvantage in possession and territory every time. No team is going to lose 20% of their own breakdowns, whereas a team could lose 50% of their scrums and be penalised at will on opposition scrums. And no team can gain a breakdown penalty at will.
So while just winning your own ball is enough for sure, achieving that against the best scrumming teams isn't an insignificant effort - being worse than that is quite common if it isn't given enough focus, and the consequences can be game defining.

Agree with all that.
Any coach that neglects the scrum is not going to win many games.
And a lot of time has to be put into it in training.
The thing is tho; at the elite level now, all scrums are good, and it is difficult for one team to get dominance.
It's like they are cancelling each other out.
Even the best can mess one up, but generally teams all win their own put in at scrum time.
So, while a lot of work has to go into it at training, come game-day it is not now deciding the outcome.
Have not checked the stats, but I know that some teams have been awarded less than 5 scrums in a game.
Kinda crazy that all that effort at training results in less than 5 possessions at game time (and they already had the ball).
The breakdown is where the game is to decided.
There can be over 200 of those in a game.
They are very dynamic, and all have to be contested.
How you deploy your players, and what they do, in that facet of the game is now paramount.

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I'd argue that numbers matter most at scrum time. 7 rather speaks for itself. 6 must be rock solid on blindside defence (an area where Vaa'i was exposed). 8 needs to be able to operate behind retreating scrum and needs strong impetus.

Regarding lineout, to me one loosie needs to be elite, but doesnt't matter if it's 6 or 8.

For me, at top level Jacobson, RD and Lakai are 7s.

Leading contenders for 6 are probably Flanders, Finau and Parker (for heft).

That leaves 8 a bit up in air. With Finau at 6, lineout covered, which opens things up for a Sititi. But if the 6 isn't a lineout banker, then 8 needs to be. Sotutu would have been very handy to have in squad.

Everything comes back to the scrum with you, eh?

Ha!

I’d agree in principle but teams don’t seem to take those different loose forward roles into much account these days. Did you see Fainga’anuku pack down at 8 against the Reds on the weekend? Poor guy didn’t have a clue what he was doing.

I also saw Lee packing down at blindside against Moana while wearing 7, with Blackadder on the openside despite wearing 6. The Blues loose forwards have also regularly switched where they bind at the scrum throughout the game, depending on the in-game situation. So a lot of it is very pragmatic, with different loose forwards fulfilling different roles, whether it’s at the scrum or around the field.

I should have said that it's defensive scrums where the specialist roles are most prevalent. On attacking scrums I can easily imagine situations where the play being called might suit the blindside to pack at openside.

As for the lineout, I do think its preferable to have 4 genuine options in the back five at Test level. Having both Finau and Flanders in the loose forward trio would be useful in this regard but both of them are at their best out wide. If you add Savea to this, then you’re asking a whole lot (too much, I think) of your tight five in terms of the carry and clean through the middle.

You raise an issue with Savea himself. He's not a cleaner, so if he plays 7 you need solid ruck hitting loosies, such as Cane and Frizell. Which is why I'd actually pick RD on bench.

So, with Rennie, I think it’s going to be either Finau or Flanders at blindside and Savea most likely at openside.
Number 8 is probably, like you say, the most difficult position to fill. Another lineout option, who is a high-volume carrier while preferably having a high work rate at the breakdown as well. I don’t really see anyone who fits that profile across the SRP teams right now.

It may be part of Chiefs thinking that, with Finau at 6, a cleaning loosie like Parker provides balance at 8.

Where is Kieran Read when you need him? I was trying to find some stats on Read’s carrying numbers and came across this from 2020, when they selected the NZ SR team of the decade. “Kieran Read gets the nod at No.8 having gained the most metres (3,131) from the most carries (892) of any No.8 and was also one of only two such players to make 800+ tackles.” (link: https://super.rugby/superrugby/news/nz-super-rugby-team-of-the-decade/) This while also being one of the best lineout forwards of his generation. Pretty useful player and it's really no wonder the ABs didn't have to worry about loose forward balance for so long when he was around.

Absolutely. I think Luatua could have had the skills to follow Read, but we screwed up the succession, which led to RD being shoehorned into 8.

The most intriguing option right now, I think, is if Sititi can regain some of his 2024 form. During that SRP season, the Chiefs number 8 averaged 15.8 carries, 15.8 tackles (87% success), 3.3 defenders beaten, 1.3 lineouts won, and 51.4 post-contact metres per 80 minutes. According to Opta’s 2024 Stats Hub, he had a dominant carry percentage of 54.7%, reaching the gainline at 64.9% of the time and evading tacklers for 19.9% of his carries. On attack, he cleaned around 12 rucks per game at 87% effectiveness, while attending around 5 defensive rucks per game as well. Statistically, I still think it’s one of the better No. 8 seasons that we’ve seen recently.

Unfortunately, he’s fallen off since then, due to injury issues and an inability to quickly regain form. 2024 might’ve been a blip for Sititi, both at SR and at Test level, as he wasn’t able to reach the same standard in 2025. Still, a fit and firing Sititi would be a great option for the ABs to have in 2026.

Agree that a fit Sititi should be in squad. But, from the perspective of balance, to me RD and Sititi are too similar to start together. However, Paps/Jacobson/Lakai at 7, Finau at 6 and Wally 8 would have attractions.

said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I was trying to find some stats on Read’s carrying numbers and came across this from 2020, when they selected the NZ SR team of the decade. “Kieran Read gets the nod at No.8 having gained the most metres (3,131) from the most carries (892) of any No.8 and was also one of only two such players to make 800+ tackles.”

Just a few more quick thoughts on the No. 8 position, based on this SR metric with Kieran Read (apologies for the self-quote). I’ve quickly gathered the different NZ-born eights in SRP, based on their volume of carrying (CPM) and tackling (TPM) per minute. I’m calling it the Kieran Read Index (TM pending).

What the graph shows, in my view, is that high-volume carriers aren’t really valued within NZ SRP teams. The two highest-volume carriers – Tupou-Ta’eiloa and Ekuasi – play for non-NZ teams, while the third one, Sotutu, is leaving after this season.

The Kieran Read Index: how many carries and tackles do the players get through on a per minute basis?

What you get instead are a bunch of loose forward hybrids: players who can play 6, 7 or 8, without really having those qualities which we associate with one of the greatest No. 8s in history, Kieran Read, namely to get through a bunch of work on attack and defence. The players who do seem to be rather typical 8s have their own issues, whether it’s a lack of size (Lio-Willie) or a lack of experience (Wrampling-Alec).

This NZ SRP sentiment of a lack of appreciation for high-volume carrying is further emphasized if we take a look at a bunch of (semi-)eligible No. 8s from overseas. Players like Fletcher Anderson, Sean Jansen, So’otala Fa’aso’o, Ethan Roots and Abraham Papali’i are some of the foremost carrying options in European rugby right now, yet none of them even sniffed regular game time at SR level.

The high-volume carriers/tacklers lost to NZ Rugby

Others, like Mikaele-Tu’u and Hemopo also play like your typical number eights in Japan, yet were never really considered for that role for the ABs. The same is of course true for Akira Ioane – whose stats aren’t available on RugbyPass due to him playing in Japanese 2nd division rugby – but who is perhaps the most famous example of a player whose in-tight carrying wasn’t valued enough at Test rugby level (I've added his 2024 SRP averages to the graph).

Meanwhile, NZ’s loss is other countries’ gain: Sean Jansen looks set to get a cap for Ireland in the near future and fans in Wales are already clamouring for Fletcher Anderson’s Test selection in 4 years’ time.

Questions can of course be asked of the quality of those players as well as the competitions in which they play. But my point isn’t that they would necessarily be good enough for the ABs, but more so that the limits of an SRP competition with limited places as well as selection identities are once again exposed here. The ways an All Black team can play are becoming restricted due to the fact that too many NZ SRP teams are playing and selecting too similarly. Even if the ABs wanted a high-volume carrier and tackler at number 8, he most likely wouldn’t be available to them and the depth would be non-existent.

The attentive reader might’ve noticed that I’ve left out one name, Wallace Sititi. Sititi has only played 60 minutes of SRP rugby this season, so putting him in this graph wouldn’t be representative. Still, his carrying volume is at the moment unmatched. On the weekend against the Hurricanes, he had 9 carries in just the 32 minutes on the field. I’ve added both his current averages as well as his 2024 numbers to the graph above, just to give an indication. As you can see, if Rennie wants a high-volume carrier at No. 8, there’s really not a lot of competition.

Leading the pack: Sititi’s current carrying averages will undoubtedly go down with more game time but if he could get back to his 2024 averages of 0.2 carries and 0.2 tackles per minute, he would comfortably stand out in the Kieran Read Index