AB Blindside - past, present & future

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Given the talent options were Luatua, Squire, Fifita, Frizell, Papali'i, Hemopo, Ioane, and Finau I would say the only reason a long term six has not been developed to replace Kaino is coaching and player management failure. All of these guys were immensely talented.

It was just been a cycle of giving a guy a go and then tossing them on the heap, then looping back to them if they were still around.

I feel chucking Blackadder in there over Finau or Parker or Sititi is only going to delay one of those players development only for Blackadder to get injured again.

Not to mention that he’s hardly a world beater when he is actually fit.

Some journalists who for some reason actually get paid to write about sport should hang their heads at the wanky drivel they wrote about him when he came back from injury as some sort of messiah.

Not sure about some of shit being talked about the Chiefs loosies here. We play wider than any other kiwi team. We commit fewer (forwards) players to cleaning as we rely on really quick cleans and carries. So, we may have fewer numbers of rucks hit as we need those rucks to be hit and cleaned well. (Edit: one of the things which is excellent this year is the accuracy of the clean across the forwards).

We are also getting a lot of our workrate out of our locks - Vaa'ii has hit more than 200 rucks at basically 90% effectiveness. It's not surprising to see Ah Kuio with greater ruck numbers than Finau for example, as Ah Kuio has been mainly playing at lock. He's slightly less effective but doing a great job, even though we have some hybrid players out there at times, it suits our speed game.

We have Jacobson at 7, which means we can achieve balance. I'm not sure that he is fast enough to play there for the ABs, but arguably that is the way of replicating our game plan at the next level (with either him or Blackadder or Paps at 7), but it likely means putting either Ardie or Sititi on the bench, as we can then pick a Parker or Finau at 6, and one of the explosive players at 8.

I'm not saying I would do that, btw but it helps us achieve balance.

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Given the talent options were Luatua, Squire, Fifita, Frizell, Papali'i, Hemopo, Ioane, and Finau I would say the only reason a long term six has not been developed to replace Kaino is coaching and player management failure. All of these guys were immensely talented.

It was just been a cycle of giving a guy a go and then tossing them on the heap, then looping back to them if they were still around.

I feel chucking Blackadder in there over Finau or Parker or Sititi is only going to delay one of those players development only for Blackadder to get injured again.

The longer they persistent with EB the more suspicious I become that Razor and Ryan will not solve the loose forward problem

@canefan said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Given the talent options were Luatua, Squire, Fifita, Frizell, Papali'i, Hemopo, Ioane, and Finau I would say the only reason a long term six has not been developed to replace Kaino is coaching and player management failure. All of these guys were immensely talented.

It was just been a cycle of giving a guy a go and then tossing them on the heap, then looping back to them if they were still around.

I feel chucking Blackadder in there over Finau or Parker or Sititi is only going to delay one of those players development only for Blackadder to get injured again.

The longer they persistent with EB the more suspicious I become that Razor and Ryan will not solve the loose forward problem

At what stage does ‘I used to work with his Dad’ wear off ?

I cant be bothered checking the team sheets for this, as @Bovidae probably remembers off the top of his head. Has Parker started at 7 this year? I wonder if some of his greater involvement per minute just reflects him spending more time playing in the middle at 7 (arguably a great thing that he has this versatility).

@gt12 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Not sure about some of shit being talked about the Chiefs loosies here. We play wider than any other kiwi team. We commit fewer (forwards) players to cleaning as we rely on really quick cleans and carries. So, we may have fewer numbers of rucks hit as we need those rucks to be hit and cleaned well. (Edit: one of the things which is excellent this year is the accuracy of the clean across the forwards).

We are also getting a lot of our workrate out of our locks - Vaa'ii has hit more than 200 rucks at basically 90% effectiveness. It's not surprising to see Ah Kuio with greater ruck numbers than Finau for example, as Ah Kuio has been mainly playing at lock. He's slightly less effective but doing a great job, even though we have some hybrid players out there at times, it suits our speed game.

We have Jacobson at 7, which means we can achieve balance. I'm not sure that he is fast enough to play there for the ABs, but arguably that is the way of replicating our game plan at the next level (with either him or Blackadder or Paps at 7), but it likely means putting either Ardie or Sititi on the bench, as we can then pick a Parker or Finau at 6, and one of the explosive players at 8.

I'm not saying I would do that, btw but it helps us achieve balance.

According to those stats the Canes and the Crusaders play wider.

Also I think most people are leaning towards Parker or Finau ¯_(ツ)_/¯

After watching Blackadder's performance last night, I was wondering what kind of mental gymnastics people would perform in order to criticise his play. I have not been disappointed.

@Old-Samurai-Jack said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

After watching Blackadder's performance last night, I was wondering what kind of mental gymnastics people would perform in order to criticise his play. I have not been disappointed.

Nothing too strenuous in terms of mental gymnastics, busy and ineffective seem to sum things up pretty accurately

Didn't get injured but still managed to take a 10 minute rest in the game.

@Old-Samurai-Jack said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

After watching Blackadder's performance last night, I was wondering what kind of mental gymnastics people would perform in order to criticise his play. I have not been disappointed.

If he dominates and is durable in the test matches I assume he will be given to play, I'll happily be proven wrong. But as Razor has said, SR performance isn't important to him, and EB has considerable form to back up my opinions

@Old-Samurai-Jack said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

After watching Blackadder's performance last night, I was wondering what kind of mental gymnastics people would perform in order to criticise his play. I have not been disappointed.

His main criticism is that he is always injured for long periods. This prevents both him and another player reaching their true potential for the AB's when the coaches continually try to bring him back into the AB's.

Durability is an attribute of a player worth considering when you're wanting to build a cohesive team.

@brodean

We play wider than 1st receiver / 2nd receiver than any other kiwi team with more passes. It may not be sideline to sideline but we are looking to use the wider channels more than most other teams.

@MN5 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Old-Samurai-Jack said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

After watching Blackadder's performance last night, I was wondering what kind of mental gymnastics people would perform in order to criticise his play. I have not been disappointed.

Nothing too strenuous in terms of mental gymnastics, busy and ineffective seem to sum things up pretty accurately

You don't even watch bro, just repeat soundbites like you do memes.
He was effective last night (YC aside), and he was also very effective in his 40 minutes the week prior.

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@MN5 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Old-Samurai-Jack said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

After watching Blackadder's performance last night, I was wondering what kind of mental gymnastics people would perform in order to criticise his play. I have not been disappointed.

Nothing too strenuous in terms of mental gymnastics, busy and ineffective seem to sum things up pretty accurately

You don't even watch bro, just repeat soundbites like you do memes.
He was effective last night (YC aside), and he was also very effective in his 40 minutes the week prior.

That’s 110 total minutes. That’s incredible for him.

I take it all back

@MN5 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@MN5 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Old-Samurai-Jack said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

After watching Blackadder's performance last night, I was wondering what kind of mental gymnastics people would perform in order to criticise his play. I have not been disappointed.

Nothing too strenuous in terms of mental gymnastics, busy and ineffective seem to sum things up pretty accurately

You don't even watch bro, just repeat soundbites like you do memes.
He was effective last night (YC aside), and he was also very effective in his 40 minutes the week prior.

That’s 110 total minutes. That’s incredible for him.

I take it all back

Nobody is arguing that he isn't always injured - if anything that makes the performances more impressive. Though I suppose he's had a lot of practice at coming back from injury, should have it down pat by now.

@gt12 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I cant be bothered checking the team sheets for this, as @Bovidae probably remembers off the top of his head. Has Parker started at 7 this year? I wonder if some of his greater involvement per minute just reflects him spending more time playing in the middle at 7 (arguably a great thing that he has this versatility).

Not this year.

He had a few games at 7 last season but he's been exclusively used at 6 and 8 in 2023.

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Jason Ryan loves him some Blackadder and I can't see him looking past him.

If he loved him wouldn't he give him some months to recover?
Has Blackladder lasted 6 or even 4 weeks this season without injury?

I thought Blackadder played really well last night, against more than decent opposition. But looking at his game - close to source, lots of involvements, tackling around the waist rather than up high - I'm always wondering whether his game isn't best suited to 7.

But then you have another issue, which is that he isn't particularly fast or dynamic around the ruck. Now Sam Cane was pretty similar, especially in his later years, but we also saw that he was actively targeted in this sense last season, with attackers running strike moves to isolate and pass him by. So it would probably be the same for Blackadder.

To me, there's growing clarity around the loose forward roles in Super Rugby and this, I think, should translate to AB selection. You have opensides who are very mobile, excel at the breakdown and who have an active but loose role on attack as a carry and link player (Savea, Kirifi, Lasaqa). Then you have number 8s who are high-volume carriers and are able to physically impose their carry game through the middle of the field (Sititi, Lakai, Sotutu and Lio-Willie).

That just leaves blindside, which is probably still the most varied position amongst the NZ SR sides. Players like Finau, Parker, Flanders, Shields, Iose, Choat, Segner, Howden, Withy, Grace, and Blackadder have all played there, which is a mix of mostly opensides and number 8s.

I think the AB selection this year should really try to cement their vision on what they want from a blindside, with openside and number 8 becoming relatively straightforward, in my view. It’s a chance to bed in the loose forward-selection for the next few seasons, at least, which should really help the team.

But is Wallace actually the best 6? Arguably he was the best 6 for the ABs over the last season. So even if he is better at 8 perhaps they might still play him at 6. Unlikely though unless they don't want to move Savea.

If they play Sititi at 6, that means Savea at 8, and who at 7? Jacobson, Blackadder, Kirifi? All make for a small back row.

I’m yet to clear my mind of the thinking that Finau is a bit of a flat track bully. But he has the ingredients for sure.

NZ Rugby currently having trouble finding big bodies - we don’t produce big bodies as a nation naturally and a lot are going to basketball.

@taniwharugby said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

If they play Sititi at 6, that means Savea at 8, and who at 7? Jacobson, Blackadder, Kirifi? All make for a small back row.

I personally think playing Savea at 7 gives them more/better options then the next step is which are the best 6/8 and surely Sititi is there. Then the question is, is he best at 8 then choose a 6, or can he fill that 6 role and there is a better 8 alternative than 6 alternative?

@nostrildamus if they play Ardie at 7, Sotutu could play 8, but if they want Sititi at 8, it means they are likely to play Blackadder at 6, back to the small back row....as much as I don't wish ill on a player, but if Blackadder isn't available, that brings probably both Finau and Parker as options, and getting chances too.

@taniwharugby said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@nostrildamus if they play Ardie at 7, Sotutu could play 8, but if they want Sititi at 8, it means they are likely to play Blackadder at 6, back to the small back row....as much as I don't wish ill on a player, but if Blackadder isn't available, that brings probably both Finau and Parker as options, and getting chances too.

Yes I'll leave it to all those unbiased Crusader fans to tell me EB is having a stormer run of form but I kind of think - been there, tried that, waited in the hospital waiting room long enough....

@zedsdeadbaby said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I’m yet to clear my mind of the thinking that Finau is a bit of a flat track bully. But he has the ingredients for sure.

And he’s a penalty magnet. That stood out big time tonight in the second 40.

Finau doesn’t have a place in this discussion after today’s game.

He’s got the size and tools but isn’t ready.

At his age, he shouldn’t be coming to it, so maybe next year.

@gt12 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Finau doesn’t have a place in this discussion after today’s game.

He’s got the size and tools but isn’t ready.

At his age, he shouldn’t be coming to it, so maybe next year.

The issue, I feel, was Parker coming off. It forced Finau into the middle and he's just not a great decision maker in that space at the moment. He struggles playing in close connection with his fellow forwards.

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@gt12 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Finau doesn’t have a place in this discussion after today’s game.

He’s got the size and tools but isn’t ready.

At his age, he shouldn’t be coming to it, so maybe next year.

The issue, I feel, was Parker coming off. It forced Finau into the middle and he's just not a great decision maker in that space at the moment. He struggles playing in close connection with his fellow forwards.

Yeah, very little mention of Wrampling having to play loose forward - which is kind of a big deal.

@zedsdeadbaby said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

NZ Rugby currently having trouble finding big bodies - we don’t produce big bodies as a nation naturally and a lot are going to basketball.

It's something that's really noticeable at age grade level as well, for example when playing Australia. They seemingly have this endless pipeline of tall, athletic players in both the backs and forwards, despite the presence of basketball and AFL.

It makes it extra tough when players like Akira Ieremia - a big body with good coordination - leave early to places like Japan.

Clear from this weekend's games that NZ has far too many strong loose forwards for Razor and co to not build a world-class trio. Who knows whether it includes Blackadder or not, but there are no excuses.

6 - Flanders, Howden, Parker
7 - Savea, Blackadder, Jacobson
8 - Sititi, Sotutu

France are bringing over a B-team, the selectors need to try some new things while they still have the opportunity.

So I was rewatching the Chiefs-Blues game and Beehre had an impressive cameo. Not just the massive try at the death but his carrying and cleaning was really good as well. He has nimble feet and seems, to me, to be really mobile around the field.

Looking at his season’s stats before the Chiefs game – 9.7 carries/80, 18 attacking rucks/80 at 82.5%, 16 tackles/80 at 95%, 5.7 defensive rucks hit/80 (Opta); 178 post-contact metres, 11 defenders beaten, 3 line-breaks, 2 tries across the season (RugbyPass) – he seems to get through a decent amount of work in an effective manner.

He also seems to have a bit of a niggly edge about him and thrives in the close quarters. So a bit of an enforcer with a solid lineout game, dynamic mobility and a high volume of defensive involvements.

Perhaps this is a bit of a strange one but: Beehre as a bolter for the blindside position?

I think it could work at Test level (I’d keep him at lock for Super Rugby). If the selectors do go in the direction of a bigger body at blindside, I think he could be an intriguing option.

Don't think they'll go anywhere near Beehre as a Blindside option but I was tipping him as a second row bolter earlier in the year. He's probably not going to make the first selection unless there are injuries to a couple of the other more senior guys, but he's there or thereabouts.

@Mauss I thought he was superb for the Blues off the bench today.

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@gt12 said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Finau doesn’t have a place in this discussion after today’s game.

He’s got the size and tools but isn’t ready.

At his age, he shouldn’t be coming to it, so maybe next year.

The issue, I feel, was Parker coming off. It forced Finau into the middle and he's just not a great decision maker in that space at the moment. He struggles playing in close connection with his fellow forwards.

Yeah, very little mention of Wrampling having to play loose forward - which is kind of a big deal.

Wrampling was the Chiefs best player.

@Mauss

Beehre is a real workhorse and I'm a fan of his.

I do have sympathy for your idea about having a bigger player at six - a Kaino sized player at least.

The thing about the bigger options you mentioned is that none of them are as big as PsTD. And none of him are close to having the same engine. Probably only Finau is as dynamic too.

When Scott Barrett first started playing Super Rugby he would have been 5kg lighter and he had a lot more pace. IMO he could have been a world class blindside if he was developed there. He's been very good at a lock at times but its tough to say he has been world class.

The thing is Razor played him at lock and apart from maybe 1 or 2 games never seemed to entertain the idea of playing him at blindside. Instead Razor has gone for much smaller, lighter guys who are jack of all trades type guys - at 6. I think the biggest guy he's played at 6 for the Crusaders was probably Cullen Grace? So I'd be surprised if Razor ends up going with a bigger style blindside.

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

The thing is Razor played him at lock and apart from maybe 1 or 2 games never seemed to entertain the idea of playing him at blindside. Instead Razor has gone for much smaller, lighter guys who are jack of all trades type guys - at 6. I think the biggest guy he's played at 6 for the Crusaders was probably Cullen Grace? So I'd be surprised if Razor ends up going with a bigger style blindside.

Of course, all of this is just hypothetical. And you make a good point about Razor's previous selection tendencies.

For what it's worth - I don't think coaching selection is ever set in stone, but let's set that aside for now - Razor did select bigger blindsides once, as head coach of the NZ U20s in 2015 and '16. He picked guys like Mitchell Dunshea (SR lock), James Blackwell (SR lock), and Fin Hoeata (NPC lock) at blindside for certain games during those tournaments, so I guess there's some precedent. Not a lot, though.

But we'll see what they'll do soon enough. Let's just say, I won't be particularly shocked if he picks Blackadder as his blindside against France.

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Cullen Grace

Absolute dog shit player. Best thing about Crusaders shit 2024 was that morons like TJ finally stopped talking him up as an AB.

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

won't be particularly shocked if he picks Blackadder as his blindside against France.

Will reinforce my view that AB coaches should be able to read , at the very least.

That would be a pathetic parochial selection.

@Mauss

Yeah I was going to mention the last time he played bigger blindsides was in that u20 team. But he also picked a bigger 8 then in Akira and he's also gone with smaller 8's since then too.

Razor loves the high workrate, highly mobile jack of all trades for the last 7 or 8 years.

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

In terms of Parker I saw him as a potential AB last year however I do think that if Blackadder is fit he is likely to be in the squad as the starting 6 with Savea at 7 and Sititi at 8. Jason Ryan loves him some Blackadder and I can't see him looking past him. Personally I'd like to see someone like Parker in the squad over Blackadder but I'll be shocked if it happens.

Haig hasn't had a lot of game time this year. I do think there is a place for Finau and Parker in the squad.

I don't see Razor and co going for a tight 6 under their game plan. They picked Blackadder, Finau, and Sititi as starters last year. They're looking for mobile guys.

In terms of workrate Finau, Parker and Haig are very much alike compared to Blackadder. Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks. With regards to Blackadder the coaches seem to be more interested in volume as opposed to actual impact. He's always been a high volume low impact guy.

Contact Involvements per 80 Minutes Loose Forwards ( Carries + Tackles + Rucks )
69.25 Ethan Blackadder
61.62 Corey Kellow
61.0 Tom Christie
58.87 Dalton Papali'i
58.51 Du'Plessis Kirifi
58.41 Sean Withy
56.02 Jahrome Brown
54.84 Peter Lakai
53.63 Ardie Savea
52.35 Vaiolini Ekuasi
52.17 Luke Jacobson
50.6 Cullen Grace
48.87 Christian Lio-Willie
48.33 Brayden Iose
47.89 Kaylum Boshier
47.36 Hugh Renton
45.14 Hoskins Sotutu
44.21 Simon Parker
42.27 Oliver Haig
39.32 Samipeni Finau

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Rucks Per 80 minutes
35.24 Dalton Papali'i
35.19 Ethan Blackadder
33.57 Sean Withy
31.78 Corey Kellow
31.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
29.68 Tom Christie
29.13 Jahrome Brown
27.87 Ardie Savea
26.91 Luke Jacobson
25.77 Peter Lakai
25.44 Kaylum Boshier
23.85 Cullen Grace
23.35 Simon Parker
22.39 Vaiolini Ekuasi
21.74 Oliver Haig
20.72 Christian Lio-Willie
20.28 Samipeni Finau
20.0 Brayden Iose
19.95 Hoskins Sotutu
16.75 Hugh Renton

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Attacking Ruck Effectiveness
91.8% Samipeni Finau
91.3% Tom Christie
90.2% Dalton Papali'i
90.2% Vaiolini Ekuasi
88.1% Ardie Savea
87.8% Peter Lakai
87.6% Jahrome Brown
86.9% Christian Lio-Willie
85.9% Hoskins Sotutu
85.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi
85.2% Brayden Iose
85.1% Luke Jacobson
85.0% Sean Withy
84.5% Corey Kellow
84.5% Oliver Haig
83.1% Simon Parker
82.6% Hugh Renton
81.9% Cullen Grace
81.5% Ethan Blackadder
77.3% Kaylum Boshier

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Defensive Ruck Effectiveness
29.6% Simon Parker
23.9% Luke Jacobson
23.1% Kaylum Boshier
22.4% Du'Plessis Kirifi
21.9% Samipeni Finau
20.1% Ardie Savea
17.6% Cullen Grace
17.3% Dalton Papali'i
16.1% Tom Christie
15.2% Jahrome Brown
14.8% Christian Lio-Willie
14.7% Sean Withy
13.1% Peter Lakai
12.1% Hoskins Sotutu
12.0% Corey Kellow
11.8% Vaiolini Ekuasi
9.1% Brayden Iose
8.3% Hugh Renton
7.4% Ethan Blackadder
0.0% Oliver Haig

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Dominant Tackle %
16.5% Simon Parker
11.5% Samipeni Finau
8.0% Hugh Renton
7.9% Ardie Savea
7.1% Brayden Iose
6.2% Christian Lio-Willie
6.0% Ethan Blackadder
5.8% Hoskins Sotutu
5.5% Peter Lakai
5.3% Sean Withy
4.4% Kaylum Boshier
4.4% Corey Kellow
4.3% Du'Plessis Kirifi
4.2% Luke Jacobson
3.5% Jahrome Brown
3.4% Cullen Grace
3.3% Tom Christie
3.3% Dalton Papali'i
2.0% Oliver Haig
0.0% Vaiolini Ekuasi

Stats from Opta theanalyst.

I agree no way are they not picking Ethan Blackadder as their starting 6 right through to the 2027 RWC in combo with 8. Sititi and 7, Savea. For this reason I would like to see Naitoa Ah Kuoi selected in the squad to be developed as the bench blindsie/lock cover.

I like his combination with Tupou Vaai who is now one of the first names on the sheet. Developing him as a bench option will put him him prime position to be a straight swap for Blackadder at 6 when Ethan is on one of his inevitably injury breaks without bringing in someone cold who will be cast aside as soon as Blackadder makes a recovery.

For me Fabian Holland is being over hyped. If he is such a good tight forward why are the Highlanders always getting spanked in this area game after game. i would rank a uninjured Sam Darry ahead of him. IMO Ah Kuoi should be selected as the 4th lock to be developed as the bench lock/blindside cover. If Holland is selected it should be at the expense of Patrick Tuipulotu

Locks: S Barret, T Vaai, P Tuipulotu, N Ah Kuoi
Loosies A Savea, K Du Plessis, E Blackadder, S Parker, W Sititi, H Sotutu