@Tim said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@Nepia Yeah, it's not listed on NZR+, but the Ireland test is.
That's on Stan in Oz so not listed on the Oz version of NZR+ at all.
@frugby said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Tour Captain Expectation: Christian Lio-Willie
Reality: David Havili
I would expect Papalii before CLW. Will depend on who chooses the captain - Robertson or Joseph.
@Kiwidom said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Caleb Delaney and Jamie Hannah called up as injury replacements for Naitoa Ah Kuoi and Isaiah Walker Leawere
Ugh.
Two favourites of mine 
@sparky said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Really short of specialist Locks. That might not be an issue against the Barbarians or Uruguay, but it will be against England A.
Yeah, I had a similar thought as well, which I tried to work out by sifting through some of the NPC numbers.
Lineout
None of Ah Kuoi, Walker-Leawere, Beehre, Delany or Hannah are particularly dominant lineout players, either on their own feed or on opposition ball. Ah Kuoi is probably the biggest threat for opposition ball but his 0.7 steals per 80 minutes during the NPC was behind Wellington’s Akira Ieremia (0.8), North Harbour’s Tristyn Cook (0.9) and Canterbury’s Liam Jack. While the latter only had limited minutes in the NPC (233), he proved to be a big problem for opposition lineouts (1.7 steals per 80 minutes). Jack could be a real player to watch, if he’s able to continue producing these kinds of lineout numbers in the future.
On own feeds, it is not surprising that tall timber provides the most reliable target. Only three players averaged over 5 lineout takes per game, and 2 out of those 3 were 2m+ (Josh Lord and Will Tucker). Mitch Dunshea of Southland is the other but his proficiency is perhaps more to be explained by Southland’s lack of genuine lineout targets than his own lineout expertise, as Southland had the worst lineout success rate in the comp, at 77%.
Lineout might prove to be an issue for the AB XV, without easy banker options like Lord or Will Tucker in the squad
This lack of lineout proficiency might also explain the inclusion of a player like Kaylum Boshier who is, alongside Devan Flanders, TK Howden and (the unincluded) Jacob Norris, one of the best and most proficient lineout loose forwards in the competition.
Carrying
In other aspects of locking play, it will be interesting to see how SR and NPC form can be translated to what is most likely to be tougher opposition. While Walker-Leawere had a real mixed season so far, both at Super Rugby and NPC level, what he does offer is carrying ability, both in terms of number of carries and post-contact metres made. With the Hurricane lock now injured, the carrying onus will most likely fall on a player like Jamie Hannah, who has shown an ability throughout the NPC to make genuine inroads (24.2 post-contact metres made per 80 minutes).
With the loss of Walker-Leawere, Jamie Hannah now presents as the main running threat, with Beehre and Delany presenting less of a carrying option
The question remains whether Hannah will remain as effective against the bigger bodies of international opposition. It makes one wonder whether some heavier players – like Fiti Sa, Aisake Vakasiuola or Akira Ieremia – might not have been an intriguing option, considering their more considerable bulk. Perhaps Ieremia isn’t available due to his Japanese contract but the other two are promising young players who, as the stats show, can already contribute in a specific way. While they are raw in other areas, it might’ve been a good idea to see how they would’ve responded to a more international environment.
Defence
While someone like Beehre had a great second half of the SRP season, he wasn’t able to really continue that form for Auckland, making both less carries (8.1) and post-contact metres (15.5) per 80 minutes compared to Super Rugby (11.1 C/80 and 22.2 PCM/80). His defensive involvements were also higher at Super Rugby level, making nearly 15 tackles per 80 minutes for the Blues compared to only 12.8 for Auckland. He will have to show on tour that his not-so-great NPC was just a bump in his rugby road, as there are other players who are making compelling cases with their NPC form.
None of the real volume-tacklers were selected for the AB XV, with someone like Shalfoon being perhaps a tad unlucky
Zach Gallagher stands alone in terms of his defensive involvements per 80 minutes, further emphasizing the great season he had for Canterbury both at lock and at blindside. He’s another, like Ieremia, who was probably not considered due to his Japanese contract. Players like Antonio Shalfoon, Jack Lee and Tristyn Cook also proved to be highly involved defensively, providing a solid rate of dominant tackling as well.
Looking at the numbers, North Harbour’s Tristyn Cook is an interesting player to keep a watch on for the future. A player like Cook is a fascinating example of how being confronted with certain stats can trigger a case of cognitive dissonance. Whenever I’ve watched Cook play for Harbour this season, I mostly noticed his ill-discipline and lack of breakdown efficacy. And yet, when putting these three graphs next to each other, Tristyn Cook is someone who consistently appears in a positive manner, whether it’s as a lineout threat (0.9 steals per 80 minutes), a carry option (23.9 post-contact metres made per 80 minutes) or as a highly involved defender (over 14 tackles made per 80 minutes).
That’s not to say that his lack of discipline and his, at times, ineffective physicality aren’t an issue, especially if he wants to focus on blindside. But what it does show is that, if Cook can put on a few more pounds while retaining his mobility and involvements, he could become a very good player, whether it’s in the engine room or amongst the loose forwards.
Summary
The selection protocol of the AB XV, when looking at a specific area like lock, seems to mirror the AB selection strategy, which is to pick allrounders rather than specialists. Players like Ah Kuoi, Beehre, Delany, and Hannah are quite solid in most areas without necessarily excelling in a specific area (Walker-Leawere being perhaps the sole exception here).
If the focus would’ve been on certain areas of excellence, players like Will Tucker (lineout takes), Aisake Vakasiuola (carrying and post-contact metres) and Antonio Shalfoon (dominant tackling) might’ve been selected instead. While it makes players less interchangeable, it has the benefit of clarity in role distribution, with every player knowing exactly what their main responsibilities are.
Right now, the NZR selection strategy seems to rather work around having all bases covered, instead of targeting particular strengths and weaknesses. It feels like an exercise in raising the floor of performances rather than looking to maximize the team’s ceiling. Whether that’s a particularly wise strategy, I’ll leave that aside until after the tour.
A sensible decision. It will be interesting to see how they mix and match the loose forward combinations over the three games.
All Blacks XV wingers Caleb Tangitau and Etene Nanai-Seturo intensify pressure on Sevu Reece and Rieko Ioane
@brodean said in All Blacks XV 2025:
ETS should be in the ABs squad for sure. Tangitau is a defensive liability.
Emissions Trading Service would be all over the hot air coming out of Razor's gob.
@brodean said in All Blacks XV 2025:
ETS should be in the ABs squad for sure. Tangitau is a defensive liability.
Tangitau is a 14 point swing type of player we cannot leave the Ferrari in the garage for too much longer, if Sevu Reece is still in the All Blacks at age 29 then I honestly give up!
@Grooter yeah if we are willing to overlook a wingers lack of pace...
Plus, Tangitau can be taught new.systems and hopefully learn, Reece ain't getting faster, ever.
@taniwharugby said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@Grooter yeah if we are willing to overlook a wingers lack of pace...
Plus, Tangitau can be taught new.systems and hopefully learn, Reece ain't getting faster, ever.
And maybe he can be taught how to force the ball properly too
@brodean said in All Blacks XV 2025:
ETS should be in the ABs squad for sure. Tangitau is a defensive liability.
So Tangitau would fit in well then.
@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
With Beehre promoted XV very low on locks?
A veritable shortage.
@Grooter said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Tangitau is a 14 point swing type of player we cannot leave the Ferrari in the garage for too much longer
Sounds like someone who never had to pay for the maintenance...
@Crazy-Horse said in All Blacks XV 2025:
My eyes might be deceiving, but I am not convinced Tangitau is a fast as we think.
Not so sure, there's some fairly slow thinkers on here.
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
With Beehre promoted XV very low on locks?
A veritable shortage.
Who's next in line and available, Haig? McWhannel? Or does Howden just wear the 19 jersey going into the next game.
@WoodysRFC said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
With Beehre promoted XV very low on locks?
A veritable shortage.
Who's next in line and available, Haig? McWhannel? Or does Howden just wear the 19 jersey going into the next game.
Against Scotland? You meant Laghlan McWhannell? They'd appreciate someone with the name that came to mean 'the unruly clans'.
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@Crazy-Horse said in All Blacks XV 2025:
My eyes might be deceiving, but I am not convinced Tangitau is a fast as we think.
Not so sure, there's some fairly slow thinkers on here.
Ha?
@ARHS said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@taniwharugby said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@Grooter yeah if we are willing to overlook a wingers lack of pace...
Plus, Tangitau can be taught new.systems and hopefully learn, Reece ain't getting faster, ever.
And maybe he can be taught how to force the ball properly too
Hopefully not by Ioane or Jordan.
@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
With Beehre promoted XV very low on locks?
My understanding is he is just training cover for the week with the All Blacks. Could still be released to play xv. Although actually I highly doubt that
Funny how at the start of the year with no injuries, lock was probably the position with the most depth. We are being exposed for not developing enough young players behind Whitelock and Retallick over the last 3-4 years. Holland, Lord, and Darry will need as much test match exposure as possible
@jimmyb said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Funny how at the start of the year with no injuries, lock was probably the position with the most depth. We are being exposed for not developing enough young players behind Whitelock and Retallick over the last 3-4 years. Holland, Lord, and Darry will need as much test match exposure as possible
Lord did okay on the weekend. Holland and Darry have shown they can do a job
@jimmyb said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Funny how at the start of the year with no injuries, lock was probably the position with the most depth. We are being exposed for not developing enough young players behind Whitelock and Retallick over the last 3-4 years. Holland, Lord, and Darry will need as much test match exposure as possible
We couldn't develop Holland earlier., and Lord and Darry have had injuries.
@Trig said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
With Beehre promoted XV very low on locks?
My understanding is he is just training cover for the week with the All Blacks. Could still be released to play xv. Although actually I highly doubt that
Just three days, I believe.
@Tim said in All Blacks XV 2025:
What other locks are available? Antonio Shalfoon? Or is he injured?
Not many options back in NZ. McWhannell has been unavailable since Rd 1 of the NPC, and likely would have been in the original squad if fit.
The two locks left are replacements themselves. Howden would have to be the backup lock for the England A game.
