ABs Back Three

@KiwiMurph said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Thank you. Great read. I think those stats show not only what JRK does well but the lack of playmaking and passing skills in outside backs (and backs in general) in NZ- something that seems to have been a real issue over the last decade or so - I recall the U20s showing some pleasing signs in that regard last year

Yeah, looking at that table, that's a fair point. The NZ U20s were a refreshing change in that sense, as you say. At certain points in last year's team, they had a backline on the field with no less than 6 players who had experience as primary or secondary playmaker (Pledger, Simpson, Cole, Solomon, Kunawave, Wiseman). It wasn't particularly surprising then that they were able to pull off sweeping attacking moves across the field.

The SRP sides have been more tentative in trying such things but hopefully we'll see a bit more attacking innovation from those teams as well.

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Clark/Jordan/Tangitau into 2 spots is a hell of a problem to have.

I agree but you need players who move the ball in the backline if you're going to play counter-attacking rugby. If the ABs were to play in a more condensed way, similar to the Blues, I think you could play that back 3 but that seems incredibly unlikely with Rennie, who has the most Wayne Smith-influenced attacking philosophy of the current Kiwi coaches.

@mikey2002 said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

where do you find those stats

RugbyPass has player profile stats, where they carry that player's stats for different tournament (e.g. Super Rugby Pacific 2026, Rugby World Cup 2023, etc.). For example:

To get to those stats that I've put in the table, you need to grab the totals (of carries, for example), divide them by the number of minutes he's played and then multiply by 80 to get a per80 number.

@Mauss said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Clark/Jordan/Tangitau into 2 spots is a hell of a problem to have.

I agree but you need players who move the ball in the backline if you're going to play counter-attacking rugby. If the ABs were to play in a more condensed way, similar to the Blues, I think you could play that back 3 but that seems incredibly unlikely with Rennie, who has the most Wayne Smith-influenced attacking philosophy of the current Kiwi coaches.

Well maybe. He used Robinson and Horrell at fullback so that's a yes... but the likes of Tikoirotuma, Osborne, and particularly Masaga I don't remember as noted distributors. Long time ago now of course.

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Masaga

Could have been a record try scoring fullback in this day and age.

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Well maybe. He used Robinson and Horrell at fullback so that's a yes... but the likes of Tikoirotuma, Osborne, and particularly Masaga I don't remember as noted distributors. Long time ago now of course.

That is a very long time ago (although I do seem to remember Osborne and Tikoirotuma as more than decent link players but I could be completely imagining that).

Looking at the current Kobe Steelers back 3, it’s noticeable that Rennie wants his outside backs to move the ball. He has used 4 players throughout the competition’s first 11 rounds: Inoke Burua, Kazuma Ueda, Shunsuke Uenobou, and Kanta Matsunaga. Ueda is a finishing winger (more than double the number of carries than passes) but all the rest have a much more balanced ratio of passing to carrying. The fullbacks, Tatsunaga and Uenobou, pass as much as they carry.

The passes and carries per 80 minutes of Rennie’s back 3 at Kobe

If we compare this to the back 3 of Tangitau, Clarke and Jordan, then it seems likely that he’ll expect Clarke to pass more frequently and Jordan to find a better balance on when to run and when to pass if he’s going to play at fullback.

Pass-to-carry ratio of the two back 3s: Jordan currently best fits the profile of a winger in a Rennie back 3 (1 pass to every 1.8 carries, similar to Burua)

So looking at these numbers, it seems like Rennie at least wants a distributor at fullback. A back 3 of Love or McKenzie at fullback (who average about the same number of carries and passes when playing at fullback), with two of Jordan/Tangitau/Clarke on the wing seems like the most likely scenario to me.

@Mauss said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Well maybe. He used Robinson and Horrell at fullback so that's a yes... but the likes of Tikoirotuma, Osborne, and particularly Masaga I don't remember as noted distributors. Long time ago now of course.

That is a very long time ago (although I do seem to remember Osborne and Tikoirotuma as more than decent link players but I could be completely imagining that).

Looking at the current Kobe Steelers back 3, it’s noticeable that Rennie wants his outside backs to move the ball. He has used 4 players throughout the competition’s first 11 rounds: Inoke Burua, Kazuma Ueda, Shunsuke Uenobou, and Kanta Matsunaga. Ueda is a finishing winger (more than double the number of carries than passes) but all the rest have a much more balanced ratio of passing to carrying. The fullbacks, Tatsunaga and Uenobou, pass as much as they carry.

View image
The passes and carries per 80 minutes of Rennie’s back 3 at Kobe

If we compare this to the back 3 of Tangitau, Clarke and Jordan, then it seems likely that he’ll expect Clarke to pass more frequently and Jordan to find a better balance on when to run and when to pass if he’s going to play at fullback.

View image
Pass-to-carry ratio of the two back 3s: Jordan currently best fits the profile of a winger in a Rennie back 3 (1 pass to every 1.8 carries, similar to Burua)

So looking at these numbers, it seems like Rennie at least wants a distributor at fullback. A back 3 of Love or McKenzie at fullback (who average about the same number of carries and passes when playing at fullback), with two of Jordan/Tangitau/Clarke on the wing seems like the most likely scenario to me.

Yeah, I think he will, and I think that's probably the go. Doesn't take much for us to get back to a position where other countries will be envious of the winger we leave out eh?

Also I'd say that I don't think Clarke is necessarily a bad passer, but playing within the Blues structure and being a pretty effective battering ram are going to emphasise those carry numbers.

In isolation I'd prefer McKenzie at 15 over Love, as I think he's a more dangerous runner and he has worked well in a double playmaker role with either Barrett or Mo'unga previously (as opposed to Mo'unga+Barrett which did not work)... but then McKenzie vs Mo'unga (vs Love?) at 10 is an interesting one too. Big season for Love, and whichever way that all pans out, having a third guy who can play 10/15 in a similar style has got to be very valuable with maintaining structure and game plans with injuries/managing workload.

@reprobate said in ABs Back Three:

Also I'd say that I don't think Clarke is necessarily a bad passer, but playing within the Blues structure and being a pretty effective battering ram are going to emphasise those carry numbers.

Hard to compare the numbers of a power winger with a fullback

One of the improvements in Clarkes game has been knowing when to pass and when to set up the next phase. Leicester is another power wing option who has that balance completely wrong

@Duluth Clarke is also used close to the ruck as a one-off runner or doing pick-and-goes.

It is no reflection on Caleb Clarke, that Caleb Tangitau and Will Jordan should be getting first crack on the wings.

For mine, if we aren't unleashing Tangitau, then the philosophy of NZR has changed.

@Tim especially as he at least runs at the line as opposed to many of our forwards (the last couple of years at least) taking the ball form a standing start

@mariner4life said in ABs Back Three:

i want JRK in teh ABs for no other reason than i want world commentators to have to pronounce his name

That would be a fun XV

@Duluth said in ABs Back Three:

@reprobate said in ABs Back Three:

Also I'd say that I don't think Clarke is necessarily a bad passer, but playing within the Blues structure and being a pretty effective battering ram are going to emphasise those carry numbers.

Hard to compare the numbers of a power winger with a fullback

One of the improvements in Clarkes game has been knowing when to pass and when to set up the next phase. Leicester is another power wing option who has that balance completely wrong

Yeah I wouldn't call linking a weakness, but I kinda feel that we don't see enough of it under the Blues gameplan as I would like to be able to call it a strength.
I wouldn't have LF in the picture barring an injury to Clarke and wanting a substitute power runner - and even then probably not. Just loses too much ball in contact.

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

The issue with Jordan is he's a finisher who largely creates his own tries. His ability to set someone else up is dreadful in comparison to his ability to see an opportunity for himself.

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

The issue with Jordan is he's a finisher who largely creates his own tries. His ability to set someone else up is dreadful in comparison to his ability to see an opportunity for himself.

If anything he's on the bench as centre/wing cover which is bad news for Reiko Ioane.

I guess they have to weigh up whether his genuine power and go forward is enough to cancel out the deficiencies he has in his game.

Very obviously a Razor favourite, lets see if he's a Rennie favourite too.

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

The issue with Jordan is he's a finisher who largely creates his own tries. His ability to set someone else up is dreadful in comparison to his ability to see an opportunity for himself.

While that is true, I think it's worth remembering that the majority of his blunders occur after making a linebreak - and most other players would never get that opportunity to fuck it up.

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

Toulon played him as a loosie. He could be bloody good there for us.

@frugby said in ABs Back Three:

It is no reflection on Caleb Clarke, that Caleb Tangitau and Will Jordan should be getting first crack on the wings.

For mine, if we aren't unleashing Tangitau, then the philosophy of NZR has changed.

I'm sure they'll all get time. Both the Auckland wings can play either side, but one prefers 14 and one prefers 11. I don't think the Calebs are competing with each other.

Having both Calebs on the wings reminds of the Lomu Vidiri days at the Blues. Jordan at test level is a wing only, same as Jane back in the day.

Not sure if JRK is the answer at the back, but we need a better fullback.

I think Etene Nanai-Seturo is underrated as a fullback, Hope he gets a shot.

@Frank said in ABs Back Three:

I think Etene Nanai-Seturo is underrated as a fullback, Hope he gets a shot.

Going to France after SR

@nzzp said in ABs Back Three:

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

Toulon played him as a loosie. He could be bloody good there for us.

Christ imagine how much he'd lose the ball carting it up as a loosie. That might be one thing that finally got me to stop watching.

And Jordan should be back 3 cover from the bench.

@Bones said in ABs Back Three:

And Jordan should be back 3 cover from the bench.

I was wondering about that, but all of our 10 cover is 10/15, and I don't think you can afford to not have 10 cover. Unless Jordie covers 10, which seems a stretch.
So then you've got a wing/fullback and a 10/fullback, and you need midfield and halfback cover as well - that's a lot of backs.

...or actually... is this a subtle part of your campaign to get Jordan to 13?

@reprobate would assume Dmac/Love at 15 is your 10 back up?

@reprobate yeah what teamrebel said. Run the risk of losing both your 10's, but let's get Roigard training as emergency backup (and Jordie I guess).

Works well when Pledger comes back too.

@Bones said in ABs Back Three:

@nzzp said in ABs Back Three:

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

Toulon played him as a loosie. He could be bloody good there for us.

Christ imagine how much he'd lose the ball carting it up as a loosie. That might be one thing that finally got me to stop watching.

Yeah every fluffybunny out there thinks he's Andre Esterhuizen.

Can't wait for everyone's favourite player Henry Pollock to have a go at 12 later this year.