AB Blindside - past, present & future

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

It is astonishingly harsh on Taylor to put him in that bracket.

Astonishingly harsh? I'd agree that Taylor is the best of that lot but he's had his own issues with throwing throughout his career. He was a big part of one of the worst AB lineouts in recent memory when he couldn't hit the side of a barn in the first part of the 2024 AB campaign. His lineout double act with Barrett against England during that Test series resembled a clown show, and that's after playing 10 years together at the Crusaders. I don't see why he should escape scrutiny.

@dan54 I watched that lineout again. It looks to me like the lifters got Dearns more than high enough.

Perhaps Aumua got confused with the call and thought Dearns would jump at the back instead of the middle. The Canes lineout was relatively decent in this game (90%, with another Aumua overthrow regathered by Moorby) but it's clearly still a work in progress. I agree that lineout failures aren't explained by the hooker alone but these overthrows are something that Aumua does need to fix.

@Mauss Well Jack Taylor (who otherwise is a great young player) all but lost the Highlanders their last game, George Bell was selected for the ABs when his throwing was similarly awful (has improved a fair bit since), and the ABs lineout has the vast majority of the time gone worse when either Samisoni or Aumua has subbed on for Taylor. Aumua has been not great for the Canes this year. McAllister had a shocker last year for the ABs. Slater is unreliable too. Who else is there?
So I dunno - nobody is above scrutiny but the AB lineout was solid last year, and looking at it from the other direction: is there a better lineout thrower in NZ rugby than Codie Taylor?

Moananu was the best thrower in terms of statistics. Now he's gone but I do not think he was AB material.

This is the blindside thread, but maybe, given how bad our hookers are at throwing, we consider another position, wings, scrumhalves, fullbacks have done it in recent years, even Kolbe, and I'm not even sure he'd be able to see past the first row of the lineout!

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

So I dunno - nobody is above scrutiny but the AB lineout was solid last year, and looking at it from the other direction: is there a better lineout thrower in NZ rugby than Codie Taylor?

My point wasn’t so much on whether or not Codie Taylor is the best thrower in NZ which, to be clear, I think he probably is (although that’s a low bar to clear). It’s rather about what kind of edge you want your hooker to bring, when taking into account the rest of your forward pack.

The current reality is that the NZ SRP sides have plenty of hardworking loose forwards but are lacking in terms of physicality. Taylor’s skillset is more of an openside one: he’s excellent in support and he’s great around the attacking breakdown. Aumua, on the other hand, acts more as an extra blindside in defence and attack: he hits with dominance (13% dominance versus Taylor’s 3%) and he bends the line more with his carrying (2.2 post-contact metres per carry versus Taylor’s 1.6 post-contact metres per carry).

So for me, Aumua is potentially a solution to a loose forward problem. It allows you to pick a guy like Flanders at six without compromising your middle defence. In the end I think we have the same opinion: Aumua could start and Taylor would finish the game from the bench.

@Mauss

Yeah
I just about consider a hooker as a fourth looseforward these days.
There is far more breakdown play than set-piece now.

The hooker does not actually hook the ball in the scrum, so that's not important.
So the only thing he absolutely has to get right is the line-out throw.
While the line-out is a bit more dynamic than a scrum, it's still, sort-of, a practice makes perfect thing.
No extra-special talent required (wingers did used to do it).
If the lineout is a mess, then you practice it till its not; that's a coaching priority choice.

@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

The hooker does not actually hook the ball

Does the brake foot not mean there's a bit more impetus on that now?

@Mauss

I've seen long analysis, I've seen clear and readable analysis.

Rarely see both together. Brilliant job.

@Victor-Meldrew said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I've seen long analysis, I've seen clear and readable analysis.

Rarely see both together. Brilliant job.

That is some high praise, Vic, cheers!

@Mauss said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

So I dunno - nobody is above scrutiny but the AB lineout was solid last year, and looking at it from the other direction: is there a better lineout thrower in NZ rugby than Codie Taylor?

My point wasn’t so much on whether or not Codie Taylor is the best thrower in NZ which, to be clear, I think he probably is (although that’s a low bar to clear). It’s rather about what kind of edge you want your hooker to bring, when taking into account the rest of your forward pack.

The current reality is that the NZ SRP sides have plenty of hardworking loose forwards but are lacking in terms of physicality. Taylor’s skillset is more of an openside one: he’s excellent in support and he’s great around the attacking breakdown. Aumua, on the other hand, acts more as an extra blindside in defence and attack: he hits with dominance (13% dominance versus Taylor’s 3%) and he bends the line more with his carrying (2.2 post-contact metres per carry versus Taylor’s 1.6 post-contact metres per carry).

So for me, Aumua is potentially a solution to a loose forward problem. It allows you to pick a guy like Flanders at six without compromising your middle defence. In the end I think we have the same opinion: Aumua could start and Taylor would finish the game from the bench.

Yeah mate, that i completely agree with. We need a balance of physical dominance in the forward pack at all times, and the lack of an enforcer in the loosies can definitely be mitigated via the tight 5. Likewise props like Newell with high ruck workrates can balance a lower breakdown workrate / higher impact loosie.
It's the balance that we have been getting wrong lately, and the parochial calls for 'pick loosie A from my team over loosie B from their team and problem solved' do my head in a bit, as it is a whole team issue.

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

In terms of Parker I saw him as a potential AB last year however I do think that if Blackadder is fit he is likely to be in the squad as the starting 6 with Savea at 7 and Sititi at 8. Jason Ryan loves him some Blackadder and I can't see him looking past him. Personally I'd like to see someone like Parker in the squad over Blackadder but I'll be shocked if it happens.

Haig hasn't had a lot of game time this year. I do think there is a place for Finau and Parker in the squad.

I don't see Razor and co going for a tight 6 under their game plan. They picked Blackadder, Finau, and Sititi as starters last year. They're looking for mobile guys.

In terms of workrate Finau, Parker and Haig are very much alike compared to Blackadder. Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks. With regards to Blackadder the coaches seem to be more interested in volume as opposed to actual impact. He's always been a high volume low impact guy.

Contact Involvements per 80 Minutes Loose Forwards ( Carries + Tackles + Rucks )
69.25 Ethan Blackadder
61.62 Corey Kellow
61.0 Tom Christie
58.87 Dalton Papali'i
58.51 Du'Plessis Kirifi
58.41 Sean Withy
56.02 Jahrome Brown
54.84 Peter Lakai
53.63 Ardie Savea
52.35 Vaiolini Ekuasi
52.17 Luke Jacobson
50.6 Cullen Grace
48.87 Christian Lio-Willie
48.33 Brayden Iose
47.89 Kaylum Boshier
47.36 Hugh Renton
45.14 Hoskins Sotutu
44.21 Simon Parker
42.27 Oliver Haig
39.32 Samipeni Finau

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Rucks Per 80 minutes
35.24 Dalton Papali'i
35.19 Ethan Blackadder
33.57 Sean Withy
31.78 Corey Kellow
31.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
29.68 Tom Christie
29.13 Jahrome Brown
27.87 Ardie Savea
26.91 Luke Jacobson
25.77 Peter Lakai
25.44 Kaylum Boshier
23.85 Cullen Grace
23.35 Simon Parker
22.39 Vaiolini Ekuasi
21.74 Oliver Haig
20.72 Christian Lio-Willie
20.28 Samipeni Finau
20.0 Brayden Iose
19.95 Hoskins Sotutu
16.75 Hugh Renton

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Attacking Ruck Effectiveness
91.8% Samipeni Finau
91.3% Tom Christie
90.2% Dalton Papali'i
90.2% Vaiolini Ekuasi
88.1% Ardie Savea
87.8% Peter Lakai
87.6% Jahrome Brown
86.9% Christian Lio-Willie
85.9% Hoskins Sotutu
85.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi
85.2% Brayden Iose
85.1% Luke Jacobson
85.0% Sean Withy
84.5% Corey Kellow
84.5% Oliver Haig
83.1% Simon Parker
82.6% Hugh Renton
81.9% Cullen Grace
81.5% Ethan Blackadder
77.3% Kaylum Boshier

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Defensive Ruck Effectiveness
29.6% Simon Parker
23.9% Luke Jacobson
23.1% Kaylum Boshier
22.4% Du'Plessis Kirifi
21.9% Samipeni Finau
20.1% Ardie Savea
17.6% Cullen Grace
17.3% Dalton Papali'i
16.1% Tom Christie
15.2% Jahrome Brown
14.8% Christian Lio-Willie
14.7% Sean Withy
13.1% Peter Lakai
12.1% Hoskins Sotutu
12.0% Corey Kellow
11.8% Vaiolini Ekuasi
9.1% Brayden Iose
8.3% Hugh Renton
7.4% Ethan Blackadder
0.0% Oliver Haig

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Dominant Tackle %
16.5% Simon Parker
11.5% Samipeni Finau
8.0% Hugh Renton
7.9% Ardie Savea
7.1% Brayden Iose
6.2% Christian Lio-Willie
6.0% Ethan Blackadder
5.8% Hoskins Sotutu
5.5% Peter Lakai
5.3% Sean Withy
4.4% Kaylum Boshier
4.4% Corey Kellow
4.3% Du'Plessis Kirifi
4.2% Luke Jacobson
3.5% Jahrome Brown
3.4% Cullen Grace
3.3% Tom Christie
3.3% Dalton Papali'i
2.0% Oliver Haig
0.0% Vaiolini Ekuasi

Stats from Opta theanalyst.

2026 stats would be interesting.

@Mauss looking at that picture it sure looks like he high enough mate, just watching it live, I really thought he was just not up in air as ball passed him, what made me think perhaps a mistime, could of been with throw, jump or lift. But I never looked at replays or anything, just was a thought.
My main point is , every missed lineout seems to automatically get counted against the thrower, and there is more parts to lineout than just throwing .
I always remember a test ABs lost to Wallabies , came from a missed lineout at fulltime leading to a penalty. Everyone crucified Hammett (I think he had come on) as the hooker. In his book Anton Oliver spoke of Craig Dowd being in tears in dressing room, because he had missed call as a lifter and was the cause.
I know when I played at lock, I wanted to blame hooker when I was beaten, but in those days it didn't work.

@cgrant said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Moananu was the best thrower in terms of statistics. Now he's gone but I do not think he was AB material.

Why not? His lineout throwing was good and he looked great with ball in hand. A human dynamo similar to Mealamu.. He instantly excelled at Super level and if Scott Robertson was a braver selector he should have been given the chance last season as a bench impact option. Crazy that the Crusaders let him go for Manumaua Letiu who has so far been a liability off the bench and looks like he might struggle at NPC level.

@tubbyj If Moananu is so good then why can’t he get a run for the Waratahs?

@frugby said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@tubbyj If Moananu is so good then why can’t he get a run for the Waratahs?

He is out with a shoulder injury?

@pakman said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

In terms of Parker I saw him as a potential AB last year however I do think that if Blackadder is fit he is likely to be in the squad as the starting 6 with Savea at 7 and Sititi at 8. Jason Ryan loves him some Blackadder and I can't see him looking past him. Personally I'd like to see someone like Parker in the squad over Blackadder but I'll be shocked if it happens.

Haig hasn't had a lot of game time this year. I do think there is a place for Finau and Parker in the squad.

I don't see Razor and co going for a tight 6 under their game plan. They picked Blackadder, Finau, and Sititi as starters last year. They're looking for mobile guys.

In terms of workrate Finau, Parker and Haig are very much alike compared to Blackadder. Finau is highly effective at attacking rucks and Parker in defensive rucks. With regards to Blackadder the coaches seem to be more interested in volume as opposed to actual impact. He's always been a high volume low impact guy.

Contact Involvements per 80 Minutes Loose Forwards ( Carries + Tackles + Rucks )
69.25 Ethan Blackadder
61.62 Corey Kellow
61.0 Tom Christie
58.87 Dalton Papali'i
58.51 Du'Plessis Kirifi
58.41 Sean Withy
56.02 Jahrome Brown
54.84 Peter Lakai
53.63 Ardie Savea
52.35 Vaiolini Ekuasi
52.17 Luke Jacobson
50.6 Cullen Grace
48.87 Christian Lio-Willie
48.33 Brayden Iose
47.89 Kaylum Boshier
47.36 Hugh Renton
45.14 Hoskins Sotutu
44.21 Simon Parker
42.27 Oliver Haig
39.32 Samipeni Finau

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Rucks Per 80 minutes
35.24 Dalton Papali'i
35.19 Ethan Blackadder
33.57 Sean Withy
31.78 Corey Kellow
31.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
29.68 Tom Christie
29.13 Jahrome Brown
27.87 Ardie Savea
26.91 Luke Jacobson
25.77 Peter Lakai
25.44 Kaylum Boshier
23.85 Cullen Grace
23.35 Simon Parker
22.39 Vaiolini Ekuasi
21.74 Oliver Haig
20.72 Christian Lio-Willie
20.28 Samipeni Finau
20.0 Brayden Iose
19.95 Hoskins Sotutu
16.75 Hugh Renton

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Attacking Ruck Effectiveness
91.8% Samipeni Finau
91.3% Tom Christie
90.2% Dalton Papali'i
90.2% Vaiolini Ekuasi
88.1% Ardie Savea
87.8% Peter Lakai
87.6% Jahrome Brown
86.9% Christian Lio-Willie
85.9% Hoskins Sotutu
85.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi
85.2% Brayden Iose
85.1% Luke Jacobson
85.0% Sean Withy
84.5% Corey Kellow
84.5% Oliver Haig
83.1% Simon Parker
82.6% Hugh Renton
81.9% Cullen Grace
81.5% Ethan Blackadder
77.3% Kaylum Boshier

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Defensive Ruck Effectiveness
29.6% Simon Parker
23.9% Luke Jacobson
23.1% Kaylum Boshier
22.4% Du'Plessis Kirifi
21.9% Samipeni Finau
20.1% Ardie Savea
17.6% Cullen Grace
17.3% Dalton Papali'i
16.1% Tom Christie
15.2% Jahrome Brown
14.8% Christian Lio-Willie
14.7% Sean Withy
13.1% Peter Lakai
12.1% Hoskins Sotutu
12.0% Corey Kellow
11.8% Vaiolini Ekuasi
9.1% Brayden Iose
8.3% Hugh Renton
7.4% Ethan Blackadder
0.0% Oliver Haig

Top 20 Loose Forward Players by Dominant Tackle %
16.5% Simon Parker
11.5% Samipeni Finau
8.0% Hugh Renton
7.9% Ardie Savea
7.1% Brayden Iose
6.2% Christian Lio-Willie
6.0% Ethan Blackadder
5.8% Hoskins Sotutu
5.5% Peter Lakai
5.3% Sean Withy
4.4% Kaylum Boshier
4.4% Corey Kellow
4.3% Du'Plessis Kirifi
4.2% Luke Jacobson
3.5% Jahrome Brown
3.4% Cullen Grace
3.3% Tom Christie
3.3% Dalton Papali'i
2.0% Oliver Haig
0.0% Vaiolini Ekuasi

Stats from Opta theanalyst.

2026 stats would be interesting.

Well Parker turned out to be a dud at test level so far. Though for me it was more 7 that was the real problem position last year particularly in defence.

@brodean Not sure I'd agree with such a stark conclusion.
Sure, he's not in conventional highlights reels. But if you treat him as a blunt instrument, to be used appropriately, I think he added to ABs.
His role as a strong cleaner and mauler, added to workmanlike running and tackling, IMO was a valuable element of our comprehensive win in Boks I last year. Worth noting that PSDT was noticeably subdued in that one.
Not a good scrummager.
He'd be in my AB squad, even though not starring at 8 for Chiefs.

I dunno about Parker. He's certainly big enough, but he's not exactly explosive and it's not often that he runs at the line with real intent - so I'm not sure his gainline success in Super translates to running at guys his own size at test level. If you take the Mauss categories, for me he ends up looking a bit neither high impact or high workrate really.
He tends to rumble forwards rather than go backwards though, and is good at binding on other players to help grab an extra few metres. A big body and solid tackler in close who doesn't get knocked backwards is valuable, but I think he might get exposed in space as his feet look a bit on the slow side. Does some good things, generally cleans well too, and could be part of the puzzle I guess, but I'm not convinced yet.

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

it's not often that he runs at the line with real intent

sadly that is true of so many in NZ rugby.

I've always thought Parker lacked a bit of spark, mongrel and aggro, if he could add that and up his workrate a little, he could be exceptional, has the tools, just need them used correctly.

I had high hopes for Parker.
So far.....just another Reuben Thorne, if that.

I agree – a lot of the loose forwards at the moment fall into two camps: explosive but undersized, or big-bodied but not especially dynamic. The balance isn’t quite right. Ideally, you want players who can bring both – size and impact – or at least a trio that combines to give you that presence.

The worst thing they could do is keep stacking the loose forward unit with multiple smaller players and hope their energy makes up for it. It might work in patches, but against top sides, it leaves them short on physicality.

The bigger players are the key. They don’t necessarily need replacing – they need to lift their work rate and/or physical intent. If they can bring more edge and urgency, the pack can be both powerful and dynamic, rather than one or the other.

@ShaquilleOatmeal said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

I agree – a lot of the loose forwards at the moment fall into two camps: explosive but undersized, or big-bodied but not especially dynamic. The balance isn’t quite right. Ideally, you want players who can bring both – size and impact – or at least a trio that combines to give you that presence.

The worst thing they could do is keep stacking the loose forward unit with multiple smaller players and hope their energy makes up for it. It might work in patches, but against top sides, it leaves them short on physicality.

The bigger players are the key. They don’t necessarily need replacing – they need to lift their work rate and/or physical intent. If they can bring more edge and urgency, the pack can be both powerful and dynamic, rather than one or the other.

Finau is big and explosive. Most photos of him next to Tupou Vaa'i suggest he is the same height and probably a bit heavier.

Yeah, and the other thing is effective use of the bench e.g. get a Finau to play 40 mins and empty the tank with 10 hard carries, vs what we often see with bringing an EB/LJ/DP type on for 20 minutes at the end when a big part of their strength and the reason they are selected is huge workrate over 80. Don't sub those guys or use them as subs. Use the big fellas, and don't put up with them fading in and out of the game over 80.

On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.

Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.

6. Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
7. Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
8. Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg

@Canes4life although I expect #7 Ardie Savea

Kaino was shorter than Read.

@Bovidae said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Kaino was shorter than Read.

View image

Maybe I’ve got those heights the wrong way around. Can someone confirm their heights?

@taniwharugby said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Canes4life although I expect #7 Ardie Savea

Most likely will happen. Lakai and him can simply swap around if that’s the case.

@Bovidae said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Kaino was shorter than Read.

View image

If they are similar in height and weight, the size of their motor and their mongrel level are more important. No point in being big when you have a pea sized heart

@reprobate said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Yeah, and the other thing is effective use of the bench e.g. get a Finau to play 40 mins and empty the tank with 10 hard carries, vs what we often see with bringing an EB/LJ/DP type on for 20 minutes at the end when a big part of their strength and the reason they are selected is huge workrate over 80. Don't sub those guys or use them as subs. Use the big fellas, and don't put up with them fading in and out of the game over 80.

This was part of Robertson’s conservative approach to selection - the bench existed mainly to cover early injuries, with no real consideration of alternative uses.

So has Opta not added Super Rugby stats to the Club Stats because its been deemed not even worth bothering with?

@canefan said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Bovidae said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Kaino was shorter than Read.

View image

If they are similar in height and weight, the size of their motor and their mongrel level are more important. No point in being big when you have a pea sized heart

It's about making the jersey better

@brodean said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

So has Opta not added Super Rugby stats to the Club Stats because its been deemed not even worth bothering with?

Dunno eh, those stats were good. Someone who is on twitter could send him a message and find out.

If the numbers on the jersey mean anything, this is the current thinking of the SR coaches

Blues

Chiefs

Crusaders

Highlanders

Hurricanes

@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Bovidae said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

Kaino was shorter than Read.

View image

Maybe I’ve got those heights the wrong way around. Can someone confirm their heights?

Just more bullshit heights listed.

I'm sure half of them are just estimated. Badly. Pasilo Tosi is the latest, obviously got measured by the same guy who did Kaino.

@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.

Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.

6. Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
7. Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
8. Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg

Would be surprising for Rennie to pick a first-choice trio with such inexperienced players but think the balance is right. Flanders is definitely putting his hand up for selection this year.

@Mr-Fish said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

@Canes4life said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

On form, Devan Flanders has to be in the conversation for that All Black 6 or 8 position. He's pretty much exactly the same size as K Read now that he's hitting his peak. Really like the physicality he's brought to his game this year, but his ability to run in the wider channels and put others away has also been very impressive.

Could a 6. Finau 7. Lakai and 8. Flanders combo work on the big stage? I'd love to see it, especially if Finau brings that brute force. Below is how each of those players match up to the 2015 loose trio that won our last WC.

6. Jerome Kaino 1.96m, 110kg / Samipeni Finau is 1.96m, 115kg
7. Richie McCaw 1.87m, 107kg / Peter Lakai 1.86m, 108kg
8. Kieran Read 1.93m, 111kg / Devan Flanders 1.93m, 110kg

Would be surprising for Rennie to pick a first-choice trio with such inexperienced players but think the balance is right. Flanders is definitely putting his hand up for selection this year.

Lacking volume of ruck work and tackling for me (as a trio).

@mohikamo said in AB Blindside - past, present & future:

If the numbers on the jersey mean anything, this is the current thinking of the SR coaches

I do think the numbers matter, for roles within the attacking structure, but how players fill in that specific role can still vary greatly.

Take Segner, for example. He had the 7 on his back for the Blues this weekend. The Blues are putting their openside out wide on attack this year, with the 6 (Clark) and 8 (Wrampling-Alec) playing through the middle, both carrying and cleaning in that area. As a result, the openside barely figures at the attacking breakdown, with Segner attending just 5 attacking rucks throughout the 2nd half, with two of those resulting in ruck turnovers (to Numia and Kirifi, I believe).

Still, being put out wide doesn’t necessarily mean becoming a non-factor at the attacking breakdown. If you compare how Segner approached that role to how Papali’i played there in the opening round against the Chiefs, you’ll see that the 37 Test All Black gets more involved at ruck time, attending 11 attacking rucks during his 2nd half of that game (he also disrupted 5 defensive breakdowns in that period, compared to just 2 by Segner). When Papali’i noticed low numbers at the attacking breakdown, he would move away from the edge to assist securing the ball, something Segner barely did.

So I would say the numbers indicate something but not everything; there’s still a lot of variation in individual approaches to the jersey across the SRP teams (Lakai versus Iose as the Hurricanes number 8 would be another clear example of different approaches to the same role). I think someone like Segner probably needs to move away from structure a bit more, especially when the attacking breakdown is put under a lot of pressure like it was in the Canes game. But that’s something that comes with experience, I think.

As a result, I don't think you can just transfer SRP roles to Test rugby. You probably have to look at skillsets and on-field output from the individual player, and try to fit those pieces into your forward pack puzzle. As I've said above, I think Segner would probably come more into consideration as a blindside for Rennie, due to his lineout prowess and defensive breakdown ability.

And here is what Dave is working with right now

Seems to like Costley, always goes the full 80.
Cant say I have ever seen him play. He is Japan qualified.
Apparently a Warner Dearns type, tho he fancies himself as an open-side!
Tubua and Costley have height.
Tubua, also Japan qualified, never goes the full distance.
Funaki provides the bulk; and comes on later to throw it around. Rarely goes more than 30 minutes.
And we all know everything about the 7.
Ardie is going the full distance, or close to, every game.

Pretty sure Dave is going to at least start with something like this.

I'd be very surprised if we don't see a player who has at the very least covered lock before starting in Rennie's loose forward trio.

Finau still has to prove he's got a bit of industry about him so the smart money's on Vaa'i starting at 6.