2025 All Blacks v France series

@Wurzel I haven't forgotten Big Leicester.

I haven't seen that he's re-signed with the Mako yet (or any other bunch of poaching NPC feckers)?

That doesn't mean he hasn't - someone who watches these things more closely may be able to tell me - but, to be eligible for the ABs this year I think he has to be signed up for NPC?

In any case they don't need to rush him into the midfield - if he were to appear immediately, I reckon there's more opportunity as a wing. But, no need to rush him in there either.

In any case, I'd be amazed if Razor hasn't been watching him closely on the telly.

Here's my guess vs the OP. I reckon there will be a couple of bolters, but I'm not going to try to pick them.

@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

PROPS:
Tamaiti Williams (Crusaders)
Ethan de Groot (Highlanders)
George Bower (Crusaders) Ollie Norris (Chiefs)
Tyrel Lomax (Hurricanes)
Fletcher Newell (Crusaders)
Pasilio Tosi (Hurricanes)

HOOKERS:
Codie Taylor (Crusaders)
Samisoni Taukei'aho (Chiefs)
George Bell (Crusaders) (Aumua if fit, but if not - Bell)

LOCKS:
Scott Barrett (c) (Crusaders)
Tupou Vaa'i (Chiefs)
Patrick Tuipulotu (Blues)
Fabian Holland (Highlanders)

LOOSE FORWARDS:
Ethan Blackadder (Crusaders)
Samipeni Finau (Chiefs)
Ardie Savea (Moana Pasifika)
Peter Lakai (Hurricanes)
Dalton Papalii (Blues)
Wallace Sititi (Chiefs)
Christian Lio-Willie (Crusaders) Luke Jacobson (Chiefs)

HALFBACKS:
Cameron Roigard (Hurricanes)
Cortez Ratima (Chiefs)
Noah Hotham (Crusaders)

FIRST FIVES:
Damian McKenzie (Chiefs)
Beauden Barrett (Blues)

MIDFIELDERS:
Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes)
Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs)
Rieko Ioane (Blues)
Billy Proctor (Hurricanes)
David Havili (Crusaders)

OUTSIDE BACKS:
Caleb Clarke (Blues)
AJ Lam (Blues)
Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens (Highlanders) Leroy Carter (Chiefs)
Sevu Reece (Crusaders)
Will Jordan (Crusaders)
Ruben Love (Hurricanes)

Unavailable due to injury: Asafo Aumua (Hurricanes), Simon Parker (Chiefs), Anton Lienert-Brown (Chiefs), Caleb Tangitau (Highlanders)

I think they'll pick the younger Norris as opposed to the known quantity Bower.

Far from beyond the realms of possibility that CLW gets picked - he's been playing well, but I think there's enough No. 8s already - and Jacobson's utility value and experience probably gets him in.

As per last year, I think Dave Havili is a nice to have, but not a must have. They need Tupaea to effectively cover both midfield positions (Lam can do the same if QT were to be injured) and ALB and Big Leicester likely to enter the frame later in the season.

Picking AJ gives an opportunity to make the bolder, but probably more risky pick of Carter over Narawa - but, that could easily go the other way.

@Chris-B said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@Wurzel I haven't forgotten Big Leicester.

I haven't seen that he's re-signed with the Mako yet (or any other bunch of poaching NPC feckers)?

That doesn't mean he hasn't - someone who watches these things more closely may be able to tell me - but, to be eligible for the ABs this year I think he has to be signed up for NPC?

In any case they don't need to rush him into the midfield - if he were to appear immediately, I reckon there's more opportunity as a wing. But, no need to rush him in there either.

In any case, I'd be amazed if Razor hasn't been watching him closely on the telly.

Yes Leicester has signed with Ta$man .

@Wurzel he's been outstanding in the Top14. Easily one of the best midfielders in the comp, if not the best.
We currently have the best midfielder in the URC. And the best midfielder in the Top14 (arguably).

There's a lot of pessimism around, but I think we're close to being very good again.

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Turns out Fihaki has missed the most tackles this season of any back from the NZ teams squads who played in the semis

So theoretically his work on both sides of the ball won’t be good enough…

Will Jordie usurp the NZ based midfielders or will playing in SR be counted in the favour of the rest. By chance.

@Gunner said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Turns out Fihaki has missed the most tackles this season of any back from the NZ teams squads who played in the semis

So theoretically his work on both sides of the ball won’t be good enough…

Or just his work either side of ball isn't good enough.

I like the idea of Leicester into the squad at some point this year. What will be of interest to me is who makes way for him.

@KiwiMurph said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

I like the idea of Leicester into the squad at some point this year. What will be of interest to me is who makes way for him.

Impact off the bench at wing or 13 I imagine

@KiwiMurph said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

I like the idea of Leicester into the squad at some point this year. What will be of interest to me is who makes way for him.

I love ALB but I would move off him for Leicester (assuming he comes back and looks good). LF is a midfield / wing which is the main role we get from ALB.

I'm wondering whether Tupaea is going to get a go - a specialist 2nd five in squad is hard unless he is the starter.

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@KiwiMurph said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

I like the idea of Leicester into the squad at some point this year. What will be of interest to me is who makes way for him.

I love ALB but I would move off him for Leicester (assuming he comes back and looks good). LF is a midfield / wing which is the main role we get from ALB.

I'm wondering whether Tupaea is going to get a go - a specialist 2nd five in squad is hard unless he is the starter.

ALB would drop out for me

Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.

But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:

Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo

@brodean do you have the stats for Tavatavanawai?

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.

But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:

Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo

I thought Rieko's tackle success would be higher.
I took his defense to be one of his strengths.

Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.

@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.

It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.

It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.

Fainga'anuku will be in the squad as soon as possible Razor got him back for a reason and he was involved in getting Leicester back.

@Kiwiwomble said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean do you have the stats for Tavatavanawai?

Yes. I'd filtered him out by mistake because his association was listed with Fiji.

93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
87.0% Timoci Tavatavanawai
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo
66.7% Corey Evans
65.7% Sam Gilbert

@Chris said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.

It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.

Fainga'anuku will be in the squad as soon as possible Razor got him back for a reason and he was involved in getting Leicester back.

Yup I'm not debating that. That's obvious. I'm doubtful it will be in the midfield though. There is a reason why Razor preferred him on the wing and I believe part of it is his defence.

Someone said they would move ALB out for Fainga'anuku. While Fainga'anuku is an exceptional attacker, ALB is an exceptional defender. I'm not sure what it is this year but last year ALB had the highest amount of try assists of any NZ midfielder in SRP.

@brodean Potentially misleading statistic if someone defends a massively wide channel. This could be the case for Reiko Ioane. The facts he defends a big area makes life easier for other Blues.

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@Chris said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.

It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.

Fainga'anuku will be in the squad as soon as possible Razor got him back for a reason and he was involved in getting Leicester back.

Yup I'm not debating that. That's obvious. I'm doubtful it will be in the midfield though. There is a reason why Razor preferred him on the wing and I believe part of it is his defence.

Someone said they would move ALB out for Fainga'anuku. While Fainga'anuku is an exceptional attacker, ALB is an exceptional defender. I'm not sure what it is this year but last year ALB had the highest amount of try assists of any midfielder.

I don't think ALB will be moved out he is highly rated by the coaching group.
Leicester maybe Telea's replacement which may mean Telea will be selected for the French series.

@brodean Delighted to see Billy Protcor so high. I think his defence has improved massively in the last couple of years.

@sparky said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean Potentially misleading statistic if someone defends a massively wide channel.

It can potentially be misleading but he's at the bottom and he was at the bottom every year in NZ too.

Obviously a single stat doesn't paint a whole picture, but you have to start somewhere, as @sparky says there might be a reason...but its a starting point. 12's wouldnt have to cover the same width as a 13 normally so Gilbert couldnt use the same excuse as Reiko ...so when judging Gilbert we're a step closer to "not the best defender"

@Frank said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.

But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:

Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo

I thought Rieko's tackle success would be higher.
I took his defense to be one of his strengths.

Rieko's numbers would be down given the ground he makes to even attempt covering tackles. While laughably those stats suggest Proctor is a better defender and we all know that's not true.

@antipodean A sort of "Glenn Phillips Effect"?

Glenn drops quite a few catches because he gets his hands to chances other people don't.

@antipodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

we all know that's not true.

Im not sure we do...

@Bones said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@antipodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

we all know that's not true.

Im not sure we do...

In the kingdom of the blind

There are definitely defensive systems which lead to more missed tackles. Any player charged with shooting up in the line to pressure ball carriers and prevent the ball getting wide will miss more than someone sitting back and waiting for the attacker.

@Chris-B said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@antipodean A sort of "Glenn Phillips Effect"?

Glenn drops quite a few catches because he gets his hands to chances other people don't.

GP also drops a bizarre number of sitters despite being one of the most athletic fielders to step onto a cricket field

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.

It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.

Not necessarily. Need to also consider how many tackles are being attempted, and how bad these missed tackles are. You also need to factor in, that if you don't attempt a tackle, you don't miss one either - so there is no stat which tells you a guy makes shit defensive reads.

Ioane attempted 108 tackles, 7.4% of which were dominant (which I would say is relevant for a midfielder).

Lienert-Brown has only attempted 30, 3.3% of which were dominant.

Proctor has only attempted 67 and is actually tackling at 86.6%, but is high for dominant tackles at 14.9% - but again, Proctor only played a handful of games, with only 2/7 being derbies (including one against the Highlanders)

Ennor 38 attempts, with high dominant tackles

Lam, Taelea, Tupaea, Higgins, Umaga-Jensen & Havili are all second-fives, so in theory are defending less space - shouldn't be comparing them on pure tackle success rate.

I think the biggest praise you could pay to Rieko, is the Blues conceded the least tries of anyone - that doesn't happen if your centre can't defend.

Midfield Players including overseas:

Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
90.0% Jordie Barrett
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
87.0% Timoci Tavatavanawai
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo
75.6% Leicester Fainga'anuku
69.2% Tamati Tua

Tackles Per 80 Minutes
18.82 David Havili
13.02 Xavi Taele
12.45 Lalomilo Lalomilo
11.85 Quinn Tupaea
11.4 Levi Aumua
10.65 Gideon Wrampling
10.31 Billy Proctor
10.0 Jordie Barrett
9.93 Riley Higgins
9.65 Timoci Tavatavanawai
9.41 AJ Lam
9.04 Peter Umaga-Jensen
8.91 Bailyn Sullivan
8.12 Tanielu Tele'a
8.03 Daniel Rona
7.26 Rieko Ioane
7.19 Anton Lienert-Brown
7.16 Tamati Tua
6.89 Braydon Ennor
5.7 Leicester Fainga'anuku

everyone storming in defending RI....@brodean didn't criticise him from what i read, was just in the list of other midfielders when working out where Fainga'anuku would sit....ie who is he overtaking from that list

And often a missed tackle can be that someone else mis-read the line or missed thier tackle and you are wrong footed trying to cover thier miss.

Stats are great, but there are always variables.

Sure but when you're at the bottom of the Tackle % and Tackles Made Per 80 Minutes it's not a good look.

@Wurzel That is certainly true.

Leicester maybe Telea's replacement which may mean Telea will be selected for the French series.

Mark Telea playing for BaaBaas against the Boks so probably means he won't be involved with ABs this season.

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Sure but when you're at the bottom of the Tackle % and Tackles Made Per 80 Minutes it's not a good look.

why?

12s make more tackles in a game than 13s.
12s make easier, mostly front on tackles during a game, while 13s make often sweeping tackles as they bounce in to out.
Comparing 12s and 13s with basic data like this is a completely meaningless exercise. And that's before you take in to consideration that no two team defends the same way.

I would imagine any defensive coach thinking their 13 is tackling above 80% is doing their job to a high standard.

@mariner4life

Well 76% is not above 80%

Also if we sorted these out for 12's and 13's he'd still be at the bottom for 13's.

are we talking about a certain player? i missed that.