@KiwiMurph said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
I like the idea of Leicester into the squad at some point this year. What will be of interest to me is who makes way for him.
Impact off the bench at wing or 13 I imagine
@KiwiMurph said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
I like the idea of Leicester into the squad at some point this year. What will be of interest to me is who makes way for him.
I love ALB but I would move off him for Leicester (assuming he comes back and looks good). LF is a midfield / wing which is the main role we get from ALB.
I'm wondering whether Tupaea is going to get a go - a specialist 2nd five in squad is hard unless he is the starter.
@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@KiwiMurph said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
I like the idea of Leicester into the squad at some point this year. What will be of interest to me is who makes way for him.
I love ALB but I would move off him for Leicester (assuming he comes back and looks good). LF is a midfield / wing which is the main role we get from ALB.
I'm wondering whether Tupaea is going to get a go - a specialist 2nd five in squad is hard unless he is the starter.
ALB would drop out for me
Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.
But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:
Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo
@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.
But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:
Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo
I thought Rieko's tackle success would be higher.
I took his defense to be one of his strengths.
@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.
It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.
@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.
It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.
Fainga'anuku will be in the squad as soon as possible Razor got him back for a reason and he was involved in getting Leicester back.
@Kiwiwomble said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@brodean do you have the stats for Tavatavanawai?
Yes. I'd filtered him out by mistake because his association was listed with Fiji.
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
87.0% Timoci Tavatavanawai
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo
66.7% Corey Evans
65.7% Sam Gilbert
@Chris said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.
It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.
Fainga'anuku will be in the squad as soon as possible Razor got him back for a reason and he was involved in getting Leicester back.
Yup I'm not debating that. That's obvious. I'm doubtful it will be in the midfield though. There is a reason why Razor preferred him on the wing and I believe part of it is his defence.
Someone said they would move ALB out for Fainga'anuku. While Fainga'anuku is an exceptional attacker, ALB is an exceptional defender. I'm not sure what it is this year but last year ALB had the highest amount of try assists of any NZ midfielder in SRP.
@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@Chris said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.
It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.
Fainga'anuku will be in the squad as soon as possible Razor got him back for a reason and he was involved in getting Leicester back.
Yup I'm not debating that. That's obvious. I'm doubtful it will be in the midfield though. There is a reason why Razor preferred him on the wing and I believe part of it is his defence.
Someone said they would move ALB out for Fainga'anuku. While Fainga'anuku is an exceptional attacker, ALB is an exceptional defender. I'm not sure what it is this year but last year ALB had the highest amount of try assists of any midfielder.
I don't think ALB will be moved out he is highly rated by the coaching group.
Leicester maybe Telea's replacement which may mean Telea will be selected for the French series.
@sparky said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@brodean Potentially misleading statistic if someone defends a massively wide channel.
It can potentially be misleading but he's at the bottom and he was at the bottom every year in NZ too.
Obviously a single stat doesn't paint a whole picture, but you have to start somewhere, as @sparky says there might be a reason...but its a starting point. 12's wouldnt have to cover the same width as a 13 normally so Gilbert couldnt use the same excuse as Reiko ...so when judging Gilbert we're a step closer to "not the best defender"
@Frank said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.
But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:
Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo LalomiloI thought Rieko's tackle success would be higher.
I took his defense to be one of his strengths.
Rieko's numbers would be down given the ground he makes to even attempt covering tackles. While laughably those stats suggest Proctor is a better defender and we all know that's not true.
@antipodean A sort of "Glenn Phillips Effect"?
Glenn drops quite a few catches because he gets his hands to chances other people don't.
@antipodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
we all know that's not true.
Im not sure we do...
@Bones said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@antipodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
we all know that's not true.
Im not sure we do...
In the kingdom of the blind
@Chris-B said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@antipodean A sort of "Glenn Phillips Effect"?
Glenn drops quite a few catches because he gets his hands to chances other people don't.
GP also drops a bizarre number of sitters despite being one of the most athletic fielders to step onto a cricket field
@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.
It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.
Not necessarily. Need to also consider how many tackles are being attempted, and how bad these missed tackles are. You also need to factor in, that if you don't attempt a tackle, you don't miss one either - so there is no stat which tells you a guy makes shit defensive reads.
Ioane attempted 108 tackles, 7.4% of which were dominant (which I would say is relevant for a midfielder).
Lienert-Brown has only attempted 30, 3.3% of which were dominant.
Proctor has only attempted 67 and is actually tackling at 86.6%, but is high for dominant tackles at 14.9% - but again, Proctor only played a handful of games, with only 2/7 being derbies (including one against the Highlanders)
Ennor 38 attempts, with high dominant tackles
Lam, Taelea, Tupaea, Higgins, Umaga-Jensen & Havili are all second-fives, so in theory are defending less space - shouldn't be comparing them on pure tackle success rate.
I think the biggest praise you could pay to Rieko, is the Blues conceded the least tries of anyone - that doesn't happen if your centre can't defend.
Midfield Players including overseas:
Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
90.0% Jordie Barrett
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
87.0% Timoci Tavatavanawai
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo
75.6% Leicester Fainga'anuku
69.2% Tamati Tua
Tackles Per 80 Minutes
18.82 David Havili
13.02 Xavi Taele
12.45 Lalomilo Lalomilo
11.85 Quinn Tupaea
11.4 Levi Aumua
10.65 Gideon Wrampling
10.31 Billy Proctor
10.0 Jordie Barrett
9.93 Riley Higgins
9.65 Timoci Tavatavanawai
9.41 AJ Lam
9.04 Peter Umaga-Jensen
8.91 Bailyn Sullivan
8.12 Tanielu Tele'a
8.03 Daniel Rona
7.26 Rieko Ioane
7.19 Anton Lienert-Brown
7.16 Tamati Tua
6.89 Braydon Ennor
5.7 Leicester Fainga'anuku
And often a missed tackle can be that someone else mis-read the line or missed thier tackle and you are wrong footed trying to cover thier miss.
Stats are great, but there are always variables.
@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Sure but when you're at the bottom of the Tackle % and Tackles Made Per 80 Minutes it's not a good look.
why?
12s make more tackles in a game than 13s.
12s make easier, mostly front on tackles during a game, while 13s make often sweeping tackles as they bounce in to out.
Comparing 12s and 13s with basic data like this is a completely meaningless exercise. And that's before you take in to consideration that no two team defends the same way.
I would imagine any defensive coach thinking their 13 is tackling above 80% is doing their job to a high standard.
Well 76% is not above 80%
Also if we sorted these out for 12's and 13's he'd still be at the bottom for 13's.
@mariner4life said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
are we talking about a certain player? i missed that.
Someone said Leicester Fainga'anuku should be fast tracked into the squad by replacing ALB and I suggested he's more likely to be in as a wing due to his defensive issues.
On ALB, I love him, but he either starts for me or doesn’t make the 23 - he’s been a penalty magnet off the bench, you cant make the tackles you miss because you are on the sideline with another YC.
Given that he either starts or doesn’t make the 23, I’m not sure he can hold his place - he shouldn’t be rated as top 2 at either 2nd five or center.
I’m not sure he makes the squad even if completely healthy.
@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
On ALB, I love him, but he either starts for me or doesn’t make the 23 - he’s been a penalty magnet off the bench, you cant make the tackles you miss because you are on the sideline with another YC.
Given that he either starts or doesn’t make the 23, I’m not sure he can hold his place - he shouldn’t be rated as top 2 at either 2nd five or center.
I’m not sure he makes the squad even if completely healthy.
Guy played 14 out of 14 tests last year so it would seem unlikely that they would drop him from the squad.
Provides the best 12/13 cover from the bench and has been a great servant. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him there but he hasn’t exactly added heaps off the bench.
On a broader level, if that’s where we are staying with our selections, we’ll be lucky to get much impact from the bench.
I love him very much, I’ll be happy for him if he’s there but some very good players will miss out.
Jordie
Tupaea
Proctor
Ioane
Would be the first four names. Lam is about as well, and big Jim.
We should have a full schedule for the AB XV
Another factor to consider is it's likely as you tire you'll miss a higher percentage as you tire, especially if you're attempting more and playing big minutes.
@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.
But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:
Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo
It's only fair he come back and compete in SR. No one should get a free pass
@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:
Provides the best 12/13 cover from the bench and has been a great servant. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him there but he hasn’t exactly added heaps off the bench.
On a broader level, if that’s where we are staying with our selections, we’ll be lucky to get much impact from the bench.
I love him very much, I’ll be happy for him if he’s there but some very good players will miss out.
Jordie
TupaeaProctor
IoaneWould be the first four names. Lam is about as well, and big Jim.
We should have a full schedule for the AB XV
ALBs YC numbers are right up there....