2025 All Blacks v France series

@Frank said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.

But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:

Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo

I thought Rieko's tackle success would be higher.
I took his defense to be one of his strengths.

Rieko's numbers would be down given the ground he makes to even attempt covering tackles. While laughably those stats suggest Proctor is a better defender and we all know that's not true.

@antipodean A sort of "Glenn Phillips Effect"?

Glenn drops quite a few catches because he gets his hands to chances other people don't.

@antipodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

we all know that's not true.

Im not sure we do...

@Bones said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@antipodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

we all know that's not true.

Im not sure we do...

In the kingdom of the blind

There are definitely defensive systems which lead to more missed tackles. Any player charged with shooting up in the line to pressure ball carriers and prevent the ball getting wide will miss more than someone sitting back and waiting for the attacker.

@Chris-B said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@antipodean A sort of "Glenn Phillips Effect"?

Glenn drops quite a few catches because he gets his hands to chances other people don't.

GP also drops a bizarre number of sitters despite being one of the most athletic fielders to step onto a cricket field

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@frugby said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Tackles success not always the best way to measure how good a defender someone is.

It's not the only way but when you're at the bottom it's not good no matter what way you spin it.

Not necessarily. Need to also consider how many tackles are being attempted, and how bad these missed tackles are. You also need to factor in, that if you don't attempt a tackle, you don't miss one either - so there is no stat which tells you a guy makes shit defensive reads.

Ioane attempted 108 tackles, 7.4% of which were dominant (which I would say is relevant for a midfielder).

Lienert-Brown has only attempted 30, 3.3% of which were dominant.

Proctor has only attempted 67 and is actually tackling at 86.6%, but is high for dominant tackles at 14.9% - but again, Proctor only played a handful of games, with only 2/7 being derbies (including one against the Highlanders)

Ennor 38 attempts, with high dominant tackles

Lam, Taelea, Tupaea, Higgins, Umaga-Jensen & Havili are all second-fives, so in theory are defending less space - shouldn't be comparing them on pure tackle success rate.

I think the biggest praise you could pay to Rieko, is the Blues conceded the least tries of anyone - that doesn't happen if your centre can't defend.

Midfield Players including overseas:

Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
90.0% Jordie Barrett
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
87.0% Timoci Tavatavanawai
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo
75.6% Leicester Fainga'anuku
69.2% Tamati Tua

Tackles Per 80 Minutes
18.82 David Havili
13.02 Xavi Taele
12.45 Lalomilo Lalomilo
11.85 Quinn Tupaea
11.4 Levi Aumua
10.65 Gideon Wrampling
10.31 Billy Proctor
10.0 Jordie Barrett
9.93 Riley Higgins
9.65 Timoci Tavatavanawai
9.41 AJ Lam
9.04 Peter Umaga-Jensen
8.91 Bailyn Sullivan
8.12 Tanielu Tele'a
8.03 Daniel Rona
7.26 Rieko Ioane
7.19 Anton Lienert-Brown
7.16 Tamati Tua
6.89 Braydon Ennor
5.7 Leicester Fainga'anuku

everyone storming in defending RI....@brodean didn't criticise him from what i read, was just in the list of other midfielders when working out where Fainga'anuku would sit....ie who is he overtaking from that list

And often a missed tackle can be that someone else mis-read the line or missed thier tackle and you are wrong footed trying to cover thier miss.

Stats are great, but there are always variables.

Sure but when you're at the bottom of the Tackle % and Tackles Made Per 80 Minutes it's not a good look.

@Wurzel That is certainly true.

Leicester maybe Telea's replacement which may mean Telea will be selected for the French series.

Mark Telea playing for BaaBaas against the Boks so probably means he won't be involved with ABs this season.

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Sure but when you're at the bottom of the Tackle % and Tackles Made Per 80 Minutes it's not a good look.

why?

12s make more tackles in a game than 13s.
12s make easier, mostly front on tackles during a game, while 13s make often sweeping tackles as they bounce in to out.
Comparing 12s and 13s with basic data like this is a completely meaningless exercise. And that's before you take in to consideration that no two team defends the same way.

I would imagine any defensive coach thinking their 13 is tackling above 80% is doing their job to a high standard.

@mariner4life

Well 76% is not above 80%

Also if we sorted these out for 12's and 13's he'd still be at the bottom for 13's.

are we talking about a certain player? i missed that.

@mariner4life said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

are we talking about a certain player? i missed that.

Someone said Leicester Fainga'anuku should be fast tracked into the squad by replacing ALB and I suggested he's more likely to be in as a wing due to his defensive issues.

On ALB, I love him, but he either starts for me or doesn’t make the 23 - he’s been a penalty magnet off the bench, you cant make the tackles you miss because you are on the sideline with another YC.

Given that he either starts or doesn’t make the 23, I’m not sure he can hold his place - he shouldn’t be rated as top 2 at either 2nd five or center.

I’m not sure he makes the squad even if completely healthy.

Hopefully Leicester is soaking up as much as he can whilst he's playing next to Nonu.

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

On ALB, I love him, but he either starts for me or doesn’t make the 23 - he’s been a penalty magnet off the bench, you cant make the tackles you miss because you are on the sideline with another YC.

Given that he either starts or doesn’t make the 23, I’m not sure he can hold his place - he shouldn’t be rated as top 2 at either 2nd five or center.

I’m not sure he makes the squad even if completely healthy.

Guy played 14 out of 14 tests last year so it would seem unlikely that they would drop him from the squad.

@brodean

Provides the best 12/13 cover from the bench and has been a great servant. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him there but he hasn’t exactly added heaps off the bench.

On a broader level, if that’s where we are staying with our selections, we’ll be lucky to get much impact from the bench.

I love him very much, I’ll be happy for him if he’s there but some very good players will miss out.

Jordie
Tupaea

Proctor
Ioane

Would be the first four names. Lam is about as well, and big Jim.

We should have a full schedule for the AB XV

Another factor to consider is it's likely as you tire you'll miss a higher percentage as you tire, especially if you're attempting more and playing big minutes.

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

Main difference with Fainga'anuku is his defensive accuracy. When he was at the Crusaders it was between 55% - 75%. He's bumped that up to 75.6% at Toulon this year. It's an improvement.

But if you look at the other midfield contenders he'd be near the bottom in Super Rugby:

Midfield Players by Tackle Success
93.3% Anton Lienert-Brown
91.3% Billy Proctor
91.3% Braydon Ennor
89.1% AJ Lam
88.7% Xavi Taele
88.4% Quinn Tupaea
86.1% Riley Higgins
85.9% Peter Umaga-Jensen
84.7% Levi Aumua
83.1% David Havili
83.0% Bailyn Sullivan
80.6% Rieko Ioane
80.0% Daniel Rona
80.0% Gideon Wrampling
79.7% Tanielu Tele'a
78.8% Lalomilo Lalomilo

It's only fair he come back and compete in SR. No one should get a free pass

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean

Provides the best 12/13 cover from the bench and has been a great servant. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him there but he hasn’t exactly added heaps off the bench.

On a broader level, if that’s where we are staying with our selections, we’ll be lucky to get much impact from the bench.

I love him very much, I’ll be happy for him if he’s there but some very good players will miss out.

Jordie
Tupaea

Proctor
Ioane

Would be the first four names. Lam is about as well, and big Jim.

We should have a full schedule for the AB XV

ALBs YC numbers are right up there....

@canefan

ALB didn't play a full season this year but he did last year. He had zero yellow cards in SRP and gave away 3 penalties for the whole season over 14 games.

BTW I wouldn't select ALB or David Havili but for different reasons.

I'd go with:

Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes)
Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs)
Rieko Ioane (Blues)
Billy Proctor (Hurricanes)
AJ Lam (Blues)

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@canefan

ALB didn't play a full season this year but he did last year. He had zero yellow cards in SRP and gave away 3 penalties for the whole season over 14 games.

BTW I wouldn't select ALB or David Havili but for different reasons.

I'd go with:

Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes)
Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs)
Rieko Ioane (Blues)
Billy Proctor (Hurricanes)
AJ Lam (Blues)

He racked up a couple in tests IIRC

Some midfield attack stats:

Gainline %
79.5% AJ Lam
76.7% Xavi Taele
75.7% Riley Higgins
67.9% Sam Gilbert
67.7% Gideon Wrampling
65.5% Corey Evans
64.9% Rieko Ioane
63.7% Quinn Tupaea
62.0% Lalomilo Lalomilo
61.5% David Havili
60.9% Leicester Fainga'anuku
60.8% Tanielu Tele'a
60.5% Daniel Rona
60.3% Billy Proctor
60.2% Peter Umaga-Jensen
59.6% Levi Aumua
58.0% Bailyn Sullivan
54.0% Jordie Barrett
54.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
53.6% Braydon Ennor

Dominant Carry %
62.3% AJ Lam
56.8% Sam Gilbert
54.4% Bailyn Sullivan
52.5% Leicester Fainga'anuku
52.2% Tanielu Tele'a
51.2% Peter Umaga-Jensen
48.0% Gideon Wrampling
41.2% Quinn Tupaea
39.7% Lalomilo Lalomilo
37.8% Rieko Ioane
37.0% Corey Evans
35.5% Tamati Tua
35.3% Billy Proctor
34.5% Timoci Tavatavanawai
34.3% Riley Higgins
34.1% Jordie Barrett
32.0% Braydon Ennor
31.8% Levi Aumua
31.0% Xavi Taele
29.7% Daniel Rona

Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
74.0% AJ Lam
70.8% Timoci Tavatavanawai
70.2% Levi Aumua
67.5% Quinn Tupaea
66.3% Leicester Fainga'anuku
64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
62.4% Peter Umaga-Jensen
59.1% Bailyn Sullivan
58.6% Billy Proctor
58.1% Tanielu Tele'a
58.1% Gideon Wrampling
53.5% Lalomilo Lalomilo
53.5% Xavi Taele
50.5% Rieko Ioane
50.0% Jordie Barrett
50.0% Braydon Ennor
48.6% Riley Higgins
48.5% Tamati Tua
42.3% David Havili
38.3% Daniel Rona

Tackle Evasion %
44.8% Billy Proctor
35.3% AJ Lam
34.8% Timoci Tavatavanawai
31.0% David Havili
30.6% Leicester Fainga'anuku
28.4% Tanielu Tele'a
27.7% Sam Gilbert
27.0% Levi Aumua
26.7% Peter Umaga-Jensen
26.4% Corey Evans
26.3% Jordie Barrett
25.9% Anton Lienert-Brown
25.6% Bailyn Sullivan
25.0% Braydon Ennor
23.6% Lalomilo Lalomilo
22.9% Tamati Tua
21.7% Gideon Wrampling
21.3% Daniel Rona
18.8% Riley Higgins
18.7% Quinn Tupaea
15.9% Xavi Taele
12.6% Rieko Ioane

@brodean Those stats are pretty interesting in the context that I'll be pretty surprised if our midfield for the first test vs France is anything other than the tried and trusted combo of Jordie and Rieko.

@Chris-B

Yeah I'd be stunned if it wasn't Jordie and RIeko.

As someone mentioned earlier, if our game plan really is supposed to be a wide game spreading thr ball to the edges, then ALB should be thr first midfielder picked.

But it's not. And he won't.

@brodean are those blended over multiple seasons or different comps?

@taniwharugby the stats are for this Super Rugby season only https://theanalyst.com/club-rugby-stats

I haven't updated them from a couple of weeks ago so there might be a few changes.

@brodean Thanks - are Jordie's stats from URC?

@KiwiMurph Yes URC, Fainga'anuku Top 14

@canefan said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@brodean said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@canefan

ALB didn't play a full season this year but he did last year. He had zero yellow cards in SRP and gave away 3 penalties for the whole season over 14 games.

BTW I wouldn't select ALB or David Havili but for different reasons.

I'd go with:

Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes)
Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs)
Rieko Ioane (Blues)
Billy Proctor (Hurricanes)
AJ Lam (Blues)

He racked up a couple in tests IIRC

3 YCs across the year, I think, against:

Australia at Accor (65th minute, they scored straight away and we went down to 13 for a bit there)]
Off the bench

England at Twickenham (78th minute that nearly cost the match)
Off the bench

Italy (50th minute)
Started the match

@gt12 as a replacement or starter?

@Bones said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@gt12 as a replacement or starter?

Two off the bench
Post edited accordingly

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@Bones said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@gt12 as a replacement or starter?

Two off the bench
Post edited accordingly

So either start him and replace him at halftime, or bring him off the bench in the 79th minute. Problem solved.

@Bones said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@gt12 said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@Bones said in 2025 All Blacks Squad v France:

@gt12 as a replacement or starter?

Two off the bench
Post edited accordingly

So either start him and replace him at halftime, or bring him off the bench in the 79th minute. Problem solved.

His YC per minute played stat would be fun to calculate

a least one YC a team one? might have been two