ABs Back Three

@KiwiMurph said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Can we bin the idea of JRK as an AB?

I’ll come to bat for JRK. It’s funny, when Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens was coming up through the grades (that’ll be around 2018, in First XV and U18 rep rugby), I never really saw the appeal either. He doesn’t have Tangitau’s pace, Jordan’s eye for the gap, Clarke’s power or Nanai-Seturo’s step. It was only when I tried to delve more deeply into his game that I came to appreciate more fully what he brings to a back 3.

The biggest upside to Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens’ game is, in my eyes, his combination of athleticism and playmaking. He is able to consistently beat defenders on his own as well as set up others for tries and line breaks, which makes him a genuine wing/15 (at Test level, I’d have him on the wing, not at fullback). This combination of skills is actually rarer than you might think.

In the table below, I’ve compiled RugbyPass’ stats on the Kiwi back threes across SRP from the first 5 rounds, listing their per 80 min numbers for carries, passes, kicks, metres made, line breaks, defenders beaten, tries, try assists and turnovers lost.

The top three in each category is marked in shades of green, the bottom three in red

There is only one player who doesn’t figure in a single bottom 3, and that is Caleb Tangitau, further reinforcing his great start to the season. He also places in the top 3 for line breaks (=3rd), tries (=2nd) and try assists (=3rd). If his current form persists throughout the season, he’ll be hard to ignore for the new AB selectors.

Others are clear of the pack in certain categories while also having very obvious gaps in their skill set. Will Jordan is first for carries (13.7/80), metres made (106.5/80), line breaks (3.5/80) and defenders beaten (5.8/80). Yet he also is first in turnovers lost (3.2/80) while being in the bottom 3 for try assists (0.3/80), which isn’t ideal for a fullback in today’s game. We have seen how his passing limitations have been exposed at Test level and, while he’s shown glimpses of improvement in this area, these glimpses are often paired with returning errors.

Similarly, Clarke is in the top 3 for line breaks (2.2/80), defenders beaten (4.1/80) and tries (1.1/80) yet he passes and kicks fewer times than anyone else, which means that any Test side can carefully prepare a defensive plan for containing him. He will be asked to present a more complete threat at Test level but he’s currently not practicing these skills enough at Super Rugby level. Because what good is a line break machine like Clarke when he doesn’t connect with his support after making the break?

And this brings me to Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens. JRK clearly isn’t a complete player: he is dead last in line breaks (0.2/80) and he isn’t a particularly noted finisher (his 8 tries in SRP ’24 more an exception than a rule). But what he does do better than anyone else is set up others: he is second in passing (8.8/80) and he is miles clear when it comes to try assists, with 6 after just 5 rounds. Furthermore, these assists have come in the forms of passes, offloads and cross-kicks, which means that he can be employed in a variety of ways for strike moves off set piece attack. He is also in the top 3 for defenders beaten (4.1/80) which means that he has transferable skills for playing on the wing as well.

A unique combination: Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens has a relatively rare profile of a player who is in the top tier for both beating defenders and setting up others

And again, just to be clear, I don’t think Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens is a better player than either Clarke, Jordan or Tangitau. But one of the reasons why the AB attack has struggled in recent years, I think, is because coaches have just been putting the best players in the backline, without necessarily thinking about how these pieces fit in a puzzle. How is the ball going to get to the edge, if you don’t have enough playmakers across your backs? How are you going to exploit overlaps if your outside backs don’t pass the ball? These things aren’t just going to magically happen at Test level; these are ingrained habits, performed from game to game.

If you want your wingers to pass – which, personally, I would – then they need to be passing the ball consistently. Playmaking wingers are currently worth their weight in gold in Test rugby. Players like Cheslin Kolbe, Théo Attissogbe, Louis-Bielle-Biarrey, Max Jorgensen, Mack Hansen, Kyle Steyn: what these players have in common is that they have pace, can beat defenders themselves and set up others, making them difficult to contain at Test level. JRK, to me, probably offers the most similar package right now in NZ rugby.

It'll be interesting to see how Rennie approaches this. If he’s going to fix the AB attack, he might ask some big names to make some thorough adjustments to their game. Or they might risk missing out altogether. I guess we’ll see in July.

Apologies for the lengthy response.

@Mauss great analysis as always!!

Just shows there is always more to dig into to see what coaches are very likely looking at when selecting players rather than the surface stuff that the basic stats Sky shows.

@Mauss Thank you. Great read. I think those stats show not only what JRK does well but the lack of playmaking and passing skills in outside backs (and backs in general) in NZ- something that seems to have been a real issue over the last decade or so - I recall the U20s showing some pleasing signs in that regard last year

@Mauss said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

@KiwiMurph said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Can we bin the idea of JRK as an AB?

I’ll come to bat for JRK. It’s funny, when Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens was coming up through the grades (that’ll be around 2018, in First XV and U18 rep rugby), I never really saw the appeal either. He doesn’t have Tangitau’s pace, Jordan’s eye for the gap, Clarke’s power or Nanai-Seturo’s step. It was only when I tried to delve more deeply into his game that I came to appreciate more fully what he brings to a back 3.

The biggest upside to Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens’ game is, in my eyes, his combination of athleticism and playmaking. He is able to consistently beat defenders on his own as well as set up others for tries and line breaks, which makes him a genuine wing/15 (at Test level, I’d have him on the wing, not at fullback). This combination of skills is actually rarer than you might think.

And this brings me to Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens. JRK clearly isn’t a complete player: he is dead last in line breaks (0.2/80) and he isn’t a particularly noted finisher (his 8 tries in SRP ’24 more an exception than a rule). But what he does do better than anyone else is set up others: he is second in passing (8.8/80) and he is miles clear when it comes to try assists, with 6 after just 5 rounds. Furthermore, these assists have come in the forms of passes, offloads and cross-kicks, which means that he can be employed in a variety of ways for strike moves off set piece attack. He is also in the top 3 for defenders beaten (4.1/80) which means that he has transferable skills for playing on the wing as well.

And again, just to be clear, I don’t think Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens is a better player than either Clarke, Jordan or Tangitau. But one of the reasons why the AB attack has struggled in recent years, I think, is because coaches have just been putting the best players in the backline, without necessarily thinking about how these pieces fit in a puzzle. How is the ball going to get to the edge, if you don’t have enough playmakers across your backs? How are you going to exploit overlaps if your outside backs don’t pass the ball? These things aren’t just going to magically happen at Test level; these are ingrained habits, performed from game to game.

If you want your wingers to pass – which, personally, I would – then they need to be passing the ball consistently. Playmaking wingers are currently worth their weight in gold in Test rugby. Players like Cheslin Kolbe, Théo Attissogbe, Louis-Bielle-Biarrey, Max Jorgensen, Mack Hansen, Kyle Steyn: what these players have in common is that they have pace, can beat defenders themselves and set up others, making them difficult to contain at Test level. JRK, to me, probably offers the most similar package right now in NZ rugby.

It'll be interesting to see how Rennie approaches this. If he’s going to fix the AB attack, he might ask some big names to make some thorough adjustments to their game. Or they might risk missing out altogether. I guess we’ll see in July.

Apologies for the lengthy response.

I agree that he is the type of player I want, but (like a few in other positions) unfortunately he's not the player I want - his decisions just aren't consistently good enough.
I also think McKenzie does everything JRK does, but better and faster - so as much as 'come back for the WC' Mo'unga shits me, if he comes back playing well that seems the obvious solution.
Clark/Jordan/Tangitau into 2 spots is a hell of a problem to have.

my feeling re JRK comes down to this....there are people like Tangitau that seem to look world class in a average team...and obviously people who look average in an average team...but people like JRK show glimpses in an average team...and i would like to see what he could do behind a better 9/10 combo

@Mauss nice write up mate. Thought the JRK criticism has been extremely harsh. Never easy playing fullback for a team that can be on the back foot either.

Pays to keep in mind he had a broken neck at the back end of 2024. Hasn’t even been back playing rugby for a full year yet. I would suspect this has a slight mental barrier he is still working through and could be a reason line breaks aren’t at the numbers we expect to see just yet.

As someone who has had a serious neck injury, they are a massive mental battle and I take my hat off to anyone who goes back to play rugby, especially at the professional level.

@Landers92 said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

@Mauss nice write up mate. Thought the JRK criticism has been extremely harsh. Never easy playing fullback for a team that can be on the back foot either.

Pays to keep in mind he had a broken neck at the back end of 2024. Hasn’t even been back playing rugby for a full year yet. I would suspect this has a slight mental barrier he is still working through and could be a reason line breaks aren’t at the numbers we expect to see just yet.

As someone who has had a serious neck injury, they are a massive mental battle and I take my hat off to anyone who goes back to play rugby, especially at the professional level.

Totally agree with this, I still cringe for him when I see him going up for the high ball.

i want JRK in teh ABs for no other reason than i want world commentators to have to pronounce his name

@mariner4life learning to pronounce it properly is still one of my greatest achivements....muttering to myself all game every game last year

@Mauss where do you find those stats

@Kiwiwomble said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

my feeling re JRK comes down to this....there are people like Tangitau that seem to look world class in a average team...and obviously people who look average in an average team...but people like JRK show glimpses in an average team...and i would like to see what he could do behind a better 9/10 combo

People often overlook the quality of a player’s team when judging individual performance. It’s common to hear arguments like, “He plays for a losing team, so he can’t be very good.” For example, people arguing against Damian McKenzie (and somehow in favour of Beauden Barrett) as the All Blacks’ first five because the Chiefs lost the Super Rugby final.

@KiwiMurph said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Thank you. Great read. I think those stats show not only what JRK does well but the lack of playmaking and passing skills in outside backs (and backs in general) in NZ- something that seems to have been a real issue over the last decade or so - I recall the U20s showing some pleasing signs in that regard last year

Yeah, looking at that table, that's a fair point. The NZ U20s were a refreshing change in that sense, as you say. At certain points in last year's team, they had a backline on the field with no less than 6 players who had experience as primary or secondary playmaker (Pledger, Simpson, Cole, Solomon, Kunawave, Wiseman). It wasn't particularly surprising then that they were able to pull off sweeping attacking moves across the field.

The SRP sides have been more tentative in trying such things but hopefully we'll see a bit more attacking innovation from those teams as well.

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Clark/Jordan/Tangitau into 2 spots is a hell of a problem to have.

I agree but you need players who move the ball in the backline if you're going to play counter-attacking rugby. If the ABs were to play in a more condensed way, similar to the Blues, I think you could play that back 3 but that seems incredibly unlikely with Rennie, who has the most Wayne Smith-influenced attacking philosophy of the current Kiwi coaches.

@mikey2002 said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

where do you find those stats

RugbyPass has player profile stats, where they carry that player's stats for different tournament (e.g. Super Rugby Pacific 2026, Rugby World Cup 2023, etc.). For example:

To get to those stats that I've put in the table, you need to grab the totals (of carries, for example), divide them by the number of minutes he's played and then multiply by 80 to get a per80 number.

@Mauss said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Clark/Jordan/Tangitau into 2 spots is a hell of a problem to have.

I agree but you need players who move the ball in the backline if you're going to play counter-attacking rugby. If the ABs were to play in a more condensed way, similar to the Blues, I think you could play that back 3 but that seems incredibly unlikely with Rennie, who has the most Wayne Smith-influenced attacking philosophy of the current Kiwi coaches.

Well maybe. He used Robinson and Horrell at fullback so that's a yes... but the likes of Tikoirotuma, Osborne, and particularly Masaga I don't remember as noted distributors. Long time ago now of course.

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Masaga

Could have been a record try scoring fullback in this day and age.

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Well maybe. He used Robinson and Horrell at fullback so that's a yes... but the likes of Tikoirotuma, Osborne, and particularly Masaga I don't remember as noted distributors. Long time ago now of course.

That is a very long time ago (although I do seem to remember Osborne and Tikoirotuma as more than decent link players but I could be completely imagining that).

Looking at the current Kobe Steelers back 3, it’s noticeable that Rennie wants his outside backs to move the ball. He has used 4 players throughout the competition’s first 11 rounds: Inoke Burua, Kazuma Ueda, Shunsuke Uenobou, and Kanta Matsunaga. Ueda is a finishing winger (more than double the number of carries than passes) but all the rest have a much more balanced ratio of passing to carrying. The fullbacks, Tatsunaga and Uenobou, pass as much as they carry.

The passes and carries per 80 minutes of Rennie’s back 3 at Kobe

If we compare this to the back 3 of Tangitau, Clarke and Jordan, then it seems likely that he’ll expect Clarke to pass more frequently and Jordan to find a better balance on when to run and when to pass if he’s going to play at fullback.

Pass-to-carry ratio of the two back 3s: Jordan currently best fits the profile of a winger in a Rennie back 3 (1 pass to every 1.8 carries, similar to Burua)

So looking at these numbers, it seems like Rennie at least wants a distributor at fullback. A back 3 of Love or McKenzie at fullback (who average about the same number of carries and passes when playing at fullback), with two of Jordan/Tangitau/Clarke on the wing seems like the most likely scenario to me.

@Mauss said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

@reprobate said in Crusaders v Highlanders:

Well maybe. He used Robinson and Horrell at fullback so that's a yes... but the likes of Tikoirotuma, Osborne, and particularly Masaga I don't remember as noted distributors. Long time ago now of course.

That is a very long time ago (although I do seem to remember Osborne and Tikoirotuma as more than decent link players but I could be completely imagining that).

Looking at the current Kobe Steelers back 3, it’s noticeable that Rennie wants his outside backs to move the ball. He has used 4 players throughout the competition’s first 11 rounds: Inoke Burua, Kazuma Ueda, Shunsuke Uenobou, and Kanta Matsunaga. Ueda is a finishing winger (more than double the number of carries than passes) but all the rest have a much more balanced ratio of passing to carrying. The fullbacks, Tatsunaga and Uenobou, pass as much as they carry.

View image
The passes and carries per 80 minutes of Rennie’s back 3 at Kobe

If we compare this to the back 3 of Tangitau, Clarke and Jordan, then it seems likely that he’ll expect Clarke to pass more frequently and Jordan to find a better balance on when to run and when to pass if he’s going to play at fullback.

View image
Pass-to-carry ratio of the two back 3s: Jordan currently best fits the profile of a winger in a Rennie back 3 (1 pass to every 1.8 carries, similar to Burua)

So looking at these numbers, it seems like Rennie at least wants a distributor at fullback. A back 3 of Love or McKenzie at fullback (who average about the same number of carries and passes when playing at fullback), with two of Jordan/Tangitau/Clarke on the wing seems like the most likely scenario to me.

Yeah, I think he will, and I think that's probably the go. Doesn't take much for us to get back to a position where other countries will be envious of the winger we leave out eh?

Also I'd say that I don't think Clarke is necessarily a bad passer, but playing within the Blues structure and being a pretty effective battering ram are going to emphasise those carry numbers.

In isolation I'd prefer McKenzie at 15 over Love, as I think he's a more dangerous runner and he has worked well in a double playmaker role with either Barrett or Mo'unga previously (as opposed to Mo'unga+Barrett which did not work)... but then McKenzie vs Mo'unga (vs Love?) at 10 is an interesting one too. Big season for Love, and whichever way that all pans out, having a third guy who can play 10/15 in a similar style has got to be very valuable with maintaining structure and game plans with injuries/managing workload.

@reprobate said in ABs Back Three:

Also I'd say that I don't think Clarke is necessarily a bad passer, but playing within the Blues structure and being a pretty effective battering ram are going to emphasise those carry numbers.

Hard to compare the numbers of a power winger with a fullback

One of the improvements in Clarkes game has been knowing when to pass and when to set up the next phase. Leicester is another power wing option who has that balance completely wrong

@Duluth Clarke is also used close to the ruck as a one-off runner or doing pick-and-goes.

It is no reflection on Caleb Clarke, that Caleb Tangitau and Will Jordan should be getting first crack on the wings.

For mine, if we aren't unleashing Tangitau, then the philosophy of NZR has changed.

@Tim especially as he at least runs at the line as opposed to many of our forwards (the last couple of years at least) taking the ball form a standing start

@mariner4life said in ABs Back Three:

i want JRK in teh ABs for no other reason than i want world commentators to have to pronounce his name

That would be a fun XV

@Duluth said in ABs Back Three:

@reprobate said in ABs Back Three:

Also I'd say that I don't think Clarke is necessarily a bad passer, but playing within the Blues structure and being a pretty effective battering ram are going to emphasise those carry numbers.

Hard to compare the numbers of a power winger with a fullback

One of the improvements in Clarkes game has been knowing when to pass and when to set up the next phase. Leicester is another power wing option who has that balance completely wrong

Yeah I wouldn't call linking a weakness, but I kinda feel that we don't see enough of it under the Blues gameplan as I would like to be able to call it a strength.
I wouldn't have LF in the picture barring an injury to Clarke and wanting a substitute power runner - and even then probably not. Just loses too much ball in contact.

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

The issue with Jordan is he's a finisher who largely creates his own tries. His ability to set someone else up is dreadful in comparison to his ability to see an opportunity for himself.

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

The issue with Jordan is he's a finisher who largely creates his own tries. His ability to set someone else up is dreadful in comparison to his ability to see an opportunity for himself.

If anything he's on the bench as centre/wing cover which is bad news for Reiko Ioane.

I guess they have to weigh up whether his genuine power and go forward is enough to cancel out the deficiencies he has in his game.

Very obviously a Razor favourite, lets see if he's a Rennie favourite too.

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

The issue with Jordan is he's a finisher who largely creates his own tries. His ability to set someone else up is dreadful in comparison to his ability to see an opportunity for himself.

While that is true, I think it's worth remembering that the majority of his blunders occur after making a linebreak - and most other players would never get that opportunity to fuck it up.

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

Toulon played him as a loosie. He could be bloody good there for us.

@frugby said in ABs Back Three:

It is no reflection on Caleb Clarke, that Caleb Tangitau and Will Jordan should be getting first crack on the wings.

For mine, if we aren't unleashing Tangitau, then the philosophy of NZR has changed.

I'm sure they'll all get time. Both the Auckland wings can play either side, but one prefers 14 and one prefers 11. I don't think the Calebs are competing with each other.

Having both Calebs on the wings reminds of the Lomu Vidiri days at the Blues. Jordan at test level is a wing only, same as Jane back in the day.

Not sure if JRK is the answer at the back, but we need a better fullback.

I think Etene Nanai-Seturo is underrated as a fullback, Hope he gets a shot.

@Frank said in ABs Back Three:

I think Etene Nanai-Seturo is underrated as a fullback, Hope he gets a shot.

Going to France after SR

@nzzp said in ABs Back Three:

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

Toulon played him as a loosie. He could be bloody good there for us.

Christ imagine how much he'd lose the ball carting it up as a loosie. That might be one thing that finally got me to stop watching.

And Jordan should be back 3 cover from the bench.

@Bones said in ABs Back Three:

And Jordan should be back 3 cover from the bench.

I was wondering about that, but all of our 10 cover is 10/15, and I don't think you can afford to not have 10 cover. Unless Jordie covers 10, which seems a stretch.
So then you've got a wing/fullback and a 10/fullback, and you need midfield and halfback cover as well - that's a lot of backs.

...or actually... is this a subtle part of your campaign to get Jordan to 13?

@reprobate would assume Dmac/Love at 15 is your 10 back up?

@reprobate yeah what teamrebel said. Run the risk of losing both your 10's, but let's get Roigard training as emergency backup (and Jordie I guess).

Works well when Pledger comes back too.

@Bones said in ABs Back Three:

@nzzp said in ABs Back Three:

@antipodean said in ABs Back Three:

Leicester shouldn't be in the conversation.

Toulon played him as a loosie. He could be bloody good there for us.

Christ imagine how much he'd lose the ball carting it up as a loosie. That might be one thing that finally got me to stop watching.

Yeah every fluffybunny out there thinks he's Andre Esterhuizen.

Can't wait for everyone's favourite player Henry Pollock to have a go at 12 later this year.